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First and 10: Penn State brings Ohio State, Ryan Day now-or-never game earlier than expected

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First and 10: Penn State brings Ohio State, Ryan Day now-or-never game earlier than expected


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The finish line hasn’t changed for the best team money can buy.

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But hear me out: what if national championship or bust at Ohio State barely scratches the first week of November for embattled coach Ryan Day?

What if Ohio State’s all-in, $41 million gamble on the 2024 season ends this weekend in State College, Pennsylvania, long before the national championship game on January 20, 2025?

I don’t want to throw everything sideways before we even sniff the Michigan game, or the Big Ten championship game, or the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State and Day are staring down the barrel right now.

If Ohio State can’t beat Penn State Saturday in a top-five heavyweight game, Day won’t make it to 2025. And Ohio State will have wasted $41 million — on this season alone. 

Because if Penn State beats Ohio State, the CFP resume for the Buckeyes will consist of — in a perfect, win-out, 10-victory scenario — a defeat of suddenly surging Indiana. And nothing else.   

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All for the cool price of a $20 million player roster, and a coaching staff with a combined salary of $21.4 million. That’s $41.4 million — $20 million for players, $10 million for Day’s annual contract, and $11.4 million for assistant coaches.

Hey kids, you too can beat Akron, Western Michigan, Northwestern and a steady diet of nothing, all for the low, low price of $41 million!

In other words, Ohio State is one loss away from a rate of return that rivals new Coke.

In all of two months.

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2. Trust your process

The strangest part of this all-in moment at Ohio State – from the jump – was Day abandoning everything that made he and the program unique. 

All in the name of beating Michigan.

No one in college football coaches quarterbacks and the passing game better than Day. No one develops offenses, and recruits elite players to those offenses, and stresses defenses quite like Day since he arrived in Columbus in 2017 as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator.

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Before last season’s step back with Kyle McCord, Day’s quarterbacks were averaging 41 touchdown passes a season. Forty-one! 

But once Michigan won three in a row in the bitter series, once the Wolverines became the last Big Ten team to win a national title, Day buckled to pressure, hired his former coach and mentor and changed the offense. 

He wanted to be more physical, and wanted to run the ball and control the clock and — as crazy as this sounds — be more like Michigan. So he hired Chip Kelly away from UCLA, made him offensive coordinator and told him he wanted physicality. Period.

Then Ohio State spent millions to lure elite running back Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss, center Seth McLaughlin from Alabama and quarterback Will Howard — a willing, dangerous runner — from Kansas State. 

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Fast forward to last weekend’s four-point win over Nebraska in Columbus: the Buckeyes rushed for 64 yards on 31 carries. The offensive line has underachieved, and was affected earlier this month by the season-ending injury to tackle Josh Simmons.

In four Big Ten games, Ohio State is averaging 148.3 yards per game.  In nine Big Ten games last season, Ohio State averaged 139.4. And now Day is talking about the need to push the ball downfield in the pass game.

Like he has done all along since 2017.

3. Ohio State’s all-in moment, The Epilogue

This isn’t just about Day and Ohio State and the pressure to win. If Ohio State can’t beat Penn State, the CFP selection committee suddenly joins the pressure-filled chat. 

That means The General — real, live former Lieutenant General and CFP director Rich Clark — and his selection committee will be eyeballing Ohio State through a unique lens.

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The Buckeyes are clearly one of the three most talented teams in the nation. Ohio State is a mega television brand.

Can you really have your first 12-team playoff, with all the hype and hoopla it brings, without Ohio State?

The first CFP poll is six days away, and a potential two-loss Ohio State — with losses in both of its most difficult games — would have no business in the top 12. But is there any doubt the Buckeyes will be there? 

More problematic for the CFP: while a loaded SEC beats up each other over the final month of the season, while the Big 12 and ACC could each have unbeaten teams in their championship games (more on that later), Ohio State will finish the season with games against Purdue, at Northwestern, surprising Indiana (who also hasn’t beaten anyone) and underachieving Michigan.

Woof. 

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Ohio State can end this meltdown scenario in an all-or-nothing season by beating Penn State, which could be without starting quarterback Drew Allar (knee).

Or it could lose to the Lions, and need the CFP selection committee to save its season. 

And Day’s job. 

4. Contender or pretender?

We’ve reached November, and it’s now time to break out the tried and true college football argument of “who have they beaten?”

Penn State (7-0) 

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The good: Lions are 7-0 for the first time since 2019.

The bad: The combined record of West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, Southern California and Wisconsin is 25-30. 

Iowa State (7-0)

The good: The last time the Cyclones started a season 7-0 was 1938.

The bad: The combined record of North Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, West Virginia and Central Florida is 29-27. 

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Indiana (7-0)

The good: Hoosiers are 8-0 for the first time since 1967.

The bad: The combined record of Florida International, Western Illinois, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska and Washington is 26-37. 

Pittsburgh (7-0)

The good: The Panthers are 7-0 for the first time since 1982.

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The bad: The combined record of Kent State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Youngstown State, North Carolina, California and Syracuse is 25-31.   

Clemson (6-1)

The good: Won six in a row since a Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia.

The bad: The combined record of Appalachian State, North Carolina State, Stanford, Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia is 19-29.

5. The Weekly Five

The five most impactful games of November. 

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1. Tennessee at Georgia, Nov. 16.

2. Ohio State at Penn State, Nov. 2.

3. Texas at Texas A&M, Nov. 30

4. Kansas State at Iowa State, Nov. 30

5. Clemson at Pittsburgh, Nov. 16

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6. An NFL scout’s take on East Carolina CB Shavon Revel Jr.

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation. 

“You’ve got a unique situation. He tore his ACL in September, and will be probably a couple of months from a full recovery during the draft. Before the injury, you could make the argument that he was the best cornerback in the draft. He’s 6-feet-3 and long and physical. He’s a flat-out burner. Everyone heals differently, and every ACL injury is different. How early in the first round do you take him? You might see someone take him in the first 16 picks. He’s that talented when completely healthy.”

7. Power Play: Notre Dame enters the field

This week’s CFP power poll and four on the outside, and one big thing.

1. Georgia: How many teams can go on the road and play the No.1 team, throw three interceptions, and win by 15? A hint: one.

2. Oregon: This Michigan game could get dicey if the Wolverines can slow tempo with its power-run game.

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3. Miami: The final month: Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, at Syracuse. If Canes aren’t 12-0, something has gone very wrong.

4. Brigham Young: Two week to prepare for the Holy War against the worst Utah team since the early 2000s.

5. Ohio State: Beat Penn State, and likely get another shot at Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. 

6. Texas: Open week gives QB Quinn Ewers more time to completely heal from core injury. 

7. Penn State: Oregon beat Ohio State with an efficient pass game. That might be a problem for Penn State, with or without injured QB Drew Allar. 

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8. Tennessee: Get better in the pass game against Kentucky and Mississippi State — to get ready for Georgia.  

9. Texas A&M: A dangerous spot this week at South Carolina, which can rush the quarterback and hurry decisions (see: turnovers). 

10. Notre Dame: No other way to say it: can’t lose again and reach the CFP.

11. Indiana: A dangerous spot for the Hoosiers on the road against improving Michigan State. 

12. Boise State: One of CFB’s overlooked and critical players: QB Maddux Madsen, all 5-feet-10 of him.  

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13. Iowa State: When QB Behren Morton is on, Texas Tech is as dangerous as any team in the Big 12.

14. Clemson: We’ll have a better idea of Clemson (and Miami) after Louisville rolls into Death Valley.

15. Kansas State: Wildcats don’t necessarily do anything really well, but are 3-0 in one-possession games. 

16. Pittsburgh: The goal: affect electric SMU QB Kevin Jennings. Duke did it (3 INTs), and still lost last week. 

8. Mail bonding: Miami looks like Michigan, circa 2021

Matt: Do we really know how good Miami is? Will we know even if they’re 13-0 after running through the ACC? — David Drake, Orlando. 

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David:

Miami looks a lot like 2021 Michigan: a young and talented team figuring out a championship run for the first time in years. It doesn’t mean the Canes play like Michigan (they don’t), but it does mean they can cause problems for anyone. 

That Michigan team lost a game in late October, and hadn’t beaten a ranked team until the last game of the regular season when it finally broke an eight-game losing streak to Ohio State. 

The difference between that young Michigan team and Miami: Canes quarterback Cam Ward. He’s so dynamic and such problem for defenses, he can change games with one rare throw. 

Michigan had a caretaker (Cade McNamara) at the most important position on the field, and it showed in the CFP semifinal blowout loss to Georgia. With Ward, Miami won’t get blown out by anyone this season.  

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9. Numbers game

8. We’re not that far from having a championship Saturday where all eight power conference teams playing on the last weekend of the regular season are locks to make the CFP — win or lose.

But all four conference championship games in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 would still have significant impact on the 12-team CFP. Why? Seeding. 

Winners earn first-round byes, and one or more losers could fall far enough in the final CFP rankings (behind at-large SEC and Big Ten teams) and not host first round games.

How’s that for a day of importance?

The narrative that championship games will lose drama with the 12-team field isn’t remotely a reality. If anything, they’ve become the football version of conference basketball tournaments that lead to overall NCAA tournament seeding ― and the sweet symphony of controversy.

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10. The last word: Army’s CFP hopes

If you think Florida State had an argument to play in last year’s CFP, wait and see the angst if Army is 13-0 and American Conference champions.

The Cadets would be unbeaten in a less competitive conference than Boise State, and would have a better win (vs. Notre Dame) than the Broncos. 

But watch the CFP poll closely. Boise State will be the highest-ranked Group of Five team in next Tuesday’s first poll of the season. Army, whose combined opponent record is 18-35, will more than likely be the second — but much lower.

All it will take is a win over Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23 to move Army to the No.12 position in the CFP poll — no matter what Boise State does. 

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

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Ohio State's blowout win over Tennessee sets up epic Oregon rematch. It's just a shame it's happening in the quarterfinals

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Ohio State's blowout win over Tennessee sets up epic Oregon rematch. It's just a shame it's happening in the quarterfinals


COLUMBUS, Ohio — Are you not entertained?

No, you’re probably not.

Four College Football Playoff first-round games, four outcomes by at least two scores. Two of those were outright blowouts (in State College and Columbus), a third was a dud made closer with two late touchdowns (in South Bend) and a fourth in Austin featured our only suspenseful fourth-quarter moments (thank you, Clemson).

Here in Columbus, the Buckeyes left us wondering a couple of things after a 42-17 drubbing of Tennessee:

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Why couldn’t they do this against Michigan?

Are they back to being the favorites to win it all?

Perhaps, they are! After all, no other college roster is more talented, as they reminded us Saturday night in capping college football’s first-ever slew of on-campus playoff games.

Let’s take a look at how ugly this got so quickly. Ohio State’s first punt came with four minutes left in the second quarter. Tennessee’s first pass completion came six minutes into the second quarter. Suddenly, it was 21-0 and the more than 25,000 Tennessee fans who made the journey north were left angry and shivering in wind chills of below 20 degrees.

The Buckeyes (11-2) showed what they can do when they’re cooking and, boy, were they cooking. By cooking, we mean targeting two of the most explosive and talented receivers in the country. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka tore through the Vols for 11 catches and nearly 200 yards.

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Ohio State's Will Howard had one of his best games of the year Saturday, completing 24 of his 29 passes for 311 yards and two touchdowns. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Ohio State’s Will Howard had one of his best games of the year Saturday, completing 24 of his 29 passes for 311 yards and two touchdowns. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Toss in an Ohio State defensive front that swarmed first-year starter Nico Iamaleava and the Buckeyes were well on their way to a win that should lower the heat on the Ryan Day Pressure Cooker, from boiling to less boiling. Afterward, even Day acknowledged that he and the coaching staff called Saturday’s game “more aggressively” than that last outing here against Michigan.

“You’re defined by the way you handle adversity in life,” he said. “To see the way they responded, they had a look in their eye.”

Up next: a rematch against Big Ten champion Oregon in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day — a glorious matchup of a team with college football’s best resume against a team with college football’s most talented roster.

Last time they met, back in October, the Ducks won 32-31 on a last-second finish in a thriller in Eugene. Whether these two should be meeting again so early in a 12-team playoff is certainly a question worth pondering.

But, alas, that’s what the format giveth. Instead of seeding teams based on the CFP selection committee’s rankings, the format calls for the four highest-ranked conference champions to be seeded Nos. 1-4 — a rule that, while understandable as an incentive for league champs, creates unbalanced seeding.

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For instance, the committee’s No. 6-ranked team, Ohio State, was seeded eighth and now is pitted against the top seed in the quarterfinals. Look for the format to undergo changes, potentially starting with this very seeding rule that grants byes to only conference champions, as explained in this story last week.

But back to those blowouts.

The ACC got knocked out in the first round, its champion downed by the SEC’s runner-up and its runner-up crushed by the Big Ten’s runner-up (if you’re debating conference strength, those results should be helpful). The Big Ten’s third-best team took down the SEC’s third-best team in Columbus. And Notre Dame quite easily handled the Big Ten’s fourth-best team.

In all, the winners scored 145 points and the losers 68. All higher seeds and home teams won.

Chalk, is what they call it.

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This doesn’t necessarily mean these teams — SMU and Indiana, in particular — should have missed the playoff field. Perhaps it only means that, in college football at least this year, the separation between those great teams and those good teams is a wider gap than we first realized.

This isn’t completely new. Don’t you remember all those CFP semifinals the last decade? Fourteen of the 20 semifinal matchups resulted in outcomes of at least two scores. Eight of those were at least three-touchdown blowouts.

It happens.

But what it does tell us, as someone here in the Ohio Stadium press box whispered to this writer, “Maybe this will show everyone that we shouldn’t expand anymore.”

Fourteen teams? Sixteen?

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Maybe not.

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are set. (Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports)The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are set. (Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports)

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are set. (Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports)

And it’s now up to Boise State and Arizona State to prevent a nightmare for many college football fans and stakeholders: an All-SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame semifinal.

The Sun Devils meet Texas in the Peach Bowl, and the Broncos tangle with Penn State in the Fiesta. Boise State and ASU were ranked No. 9 and No. 12 by the committee but got the third and fourth seeds because of that pesky conference title rule we earlier mentioned.

Can they deliver? As underdogs against the sport’s big brands, they’ll have plenty across the country rooting for them.

Meanwhile, in Pasadena, we’ll get what many expected in the preseason to maybe be a national title game matchup: Oregon vs. Ohio State.

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It’s a mouthwatering duel, backdropped by the sunset over the San Gabriel Mountains. In fact, as midnight struck here in Columbus, Rose Bowl officials readied dozens of single cut roses to be handed to Ohio State players and coaches.

What a difference that three weeks makes, huh? The last game here ended in an embarrassing midfield flag-planting brawl and a shocking loss to three-touchdown underdog Michigan — a fourth consecutive defeat to the Wolverines in this heated rivalry series and one that seemed to turn off some fans here.

“You don’t just move on from the game,” Day said. “You identify the issues and let the players speak. You put a plan together to get these things fixed. To say it doesn’t weigh on you, it does. These guys have a lot of pride.”

Despite efforts from Ohio State administrators, many Buckeyes fans sold away their tickets to this playoff bout. Visiting teams get 3,500 tickets to CFP first-round games. The Vols brought at least 25,000 strong, peppering this 102,000-seat stadium in orange. It was more visiting fans than some long-time Ohio State reporters had ever seen in this venue.

By the start of the fourth quarter, many of them were gone, exiting into the chilly night for the jaunt down Interstate 71 having suffered what was the ugliest of the first-round blowouts. After all, OSU out-gained Tennessee 473-256 in yards and played its third-string — third-string — quarterback in the final minutes.

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As a final goodbye on this cold Saturday night, Ohio State stadium operators played over the speakers a familiar refrain for those in orange: Rocky Top.

Back to Tennessee they went. And off to L.A. go the Buckeyes, deliverers of the most crushing win of this historic weekend in the sport.



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Tennessee Pregame Picks: Staff Score Predictions, Picks Against the Spread, and Eleven Warriors House Prop Bets

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Tennessee Pregame Picks: Staff Score Predictions, Picks Against the Spread, and Eleven Warriors House Prop Bets


The No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes welcome the No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers for a primetime affair at Ohio Stadium tonight. The winner advances to the quarterfinal round and punches its ticket for Pasadena to face the Oregon Ducks. The loser goes home.

The hosts will “Scarlet Out” the Shoe and will dress for the occasion.

Eleven Warriors Staff Score Predictions


Andy Anders: Ohio State 20, Tennessee 17
Both offenses struggle in the cold with a few whacky plays in a rock fight, but Ohio State’s defense and receivers do enough to carry the Buckeyes through to the CFP quarterfinals.

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Chase Brown: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 20
The Michigan game has thrown a wrench in how many people, including me, view Ohio State. However, I’ve decided to throw that performance — and the wrench — out the window as I pick this game, selecting a Buckeye team that should have reached the Big Ten title game and been no lower than the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the CFP to take care of business against a formidable foe from the SEC.

George Eisner: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 17
Between speculation on how the weather will impact the visitors and the Buckeyes’ most recent letdown performance at home, it seems difficult to forecast how this game will go. Therefore, while leaning towards the under given the frigid conditions, I’m taking the coward’s approach to a prediction and aligning my anticipated margin of victory almost exactly with the spread.

Jack Emerson: Ohio State 28, Tennessee 13
The Buckeyes ride on the back of their defense, while displaying a much more encouraging offensive performance en route to a CFP win.

I’m picking the Buckeyes because of my belief in Ohio State’s defense to draw from the energy of a loud home crowd and make key stops with the game on the line.– Dan HOpe

Johnny Ginter: Ohio State 20, Tennessee 24
I just can’t believe in Ohio State’s ability to maximize their talent until I see it actually happen, and I don’t think that’s truly something we’ve seen all season.

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Matt Gutridge: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 21
Ryan Day is currently 6-7 against teams ranked seventh or better in the CFP. He’s 2-3 against teams outside the Big Ten and Ohio State’s head coach is defeated (0-2) against the SEC. Here’s to the cold weather making the Volunteers turn into orange creamsicles. If not, this could be another bad night for Day and company.

Garrick Hodge: Ohio State 21, Tennessee 17
The Buckeyes win a Rock fight in the Shoe thanks to touchdown catches from Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.

Dan Hope: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20
Both teams’ defenses are better than their offenses, so I’m not envisioning either team scoring more than four times. I expect some continued struggles from Ohio State’s offensive line against a really good Tennessee defense, but I’m picking the Buckeyes because of my belief in Ohio State’s defense to draw from the energy of a loud home crowd and make key stops with the game on the line.

Kyle Jones: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 17
The Buckeyes come out aggressive and get an early lead, forcing the Vols to lean more heavily on a passing game not built to come back in such games.

Chris Lauderback: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 17
No outcome would surprise me and I don’t really feel like the cold weather favors the Buckeyes at all but I’ll ride with Ohio State’s defense to make the Volunteers one-dimensional and I have Jeremiah scoring at least one touchdown as OSU advances to face Oregon.

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Ramzy Nasrallah: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 23
If the Buckeyes prepare for Tennessee, they’ll win and advance to the Rose Bowl. If they prepare for Michigan again, or a Michigan team from a past era, or decide scoring points isn’t nearly as important as proving points – they are going to lose the game. This prediction is a bet against the coaching staff’s recent behavior.

Josh Poloha: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20
The Buckeyes come out with a point to prove and play with a chip on their shoulder, much like they did against Indiana, and get a big-time win over one of the best teams in the SEC. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly learn from their mistakes after the loss to Michigan and allow OSU’s playmakers to make plays on the outside all while the Silver Bullets dominate on that side of the ball.

Jason Priestas: Ohio State 23, Tennessee 13
The Buckeyes answer their critics in a historic, frigid, first for Ohio Stadium, and in doing so, inject themselves right back into the CFP contender discussion.

Jordan Raines: Ohio State 24, Tennessee 17
The Buckeyes get creative on offense and the defense holds Dylan Sampson in check allowing

Will Ohio State Cover?

The current Vegas spread sits at Ohio State -7.5 after opening at Ohio State -7. Since adding the hook, the Ohio State moneyline has peaked at -280. Tennessee’s moneyline has increased from +195 at open to +230 in some books. The initial game total of 46.5 has added a point and is showing at 47.5 in some spots.

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With the current odds, just 21 percent (3 of 14) of our staff predictions have Ohio State covering while 93 percent (13 of 14) have the Buckeyes winning, but not covering.

Only Johnny Ginter predicted Tennessee to win outright.

What About the Over?

Every member of the 11W staff is going with the under.

Eleven Warriors House Prop Bets

Let’s make the game a little more interesting with a few prop lines set right here by Eleven Warriors. Make your predictions in the comments and compete for bragging rights.

  • Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+155)
    • Over 4.5 receptions (-114)
    • Under 4.5 receptions (-114)
  • Jeremiah Smith Anytime Touchdown (+110)
    • Over 69.5 receiving yards (-114)
    • Under 69.5 receiving yards (-114)
  • Will Howard Rushing Yards
    • Over 10.5 yards (-114)
    • Under 10.5 yards (-114)

Ohio State and Tennessee will clash under the scarlet lights of Ohio Stadium at 8 p.m. tonight. Don’t forget to make your official Eleven Warriors Prognostication before kickoff for a chance to win a free signed Jeremiah Smith jersey.





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Kansas State Signs Former Ohio State LB Gabe Powers

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Kansas State Signs Former Ohio State LB Gabe Powers


Kansas State added another defensive player to their roster Friday.

Former Ohio State LB Gabe Powers signed with the Wildcats. Powers was anticipated to be a solid contributor to the Buckeyes’ defense but hasn’t had much playing time. He logged five tackles and a pick-six last season.

KANSAS STATE’S CHRIS KLIEMAN RAVES ABOUT DYLAN EDWARDS’ POTENTIAL AS PREMIERE RUNNING BACK

Kansas State star DJ Giddens will forego his senior season after declaring for the 2025 NFL Draft.

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Is it time for Dylan Edwards to take over the position? Wildcats coach Chris Klieman believes so. When asked about what Edwards can do as a premiere back, Klieman raved about the diversity he brings to the position.

“He’s so versatile,” Klieman said. “He can line up as a single back by himself. He can line up in a two-back set, flex out and be a receiver, or take jet sweeps. He can run really good routes. That’s what’s important for us.”

Edwards had 56 carries for 350 yards and three touchdowns last season, along with 17 receptions for 156 yards and a receiving touchdown. He transferred from Colorado after totaling over 600 total yards and five touchdowns his freshman year.

Edwards has big shoes to fill as Giddens exits as one of the top rushers in school history. Nevertheless, Klieman is excited for him and Joe Jackson to get acclimated and start producing as the likely running back duo next year. Klieman says this begins with the Rate Bowl against Rutgers.

“I’m excited for those guys,” Klieman said. “It’s their chance to get established. We know a lot of the things that Dylan can do and we’re excited to be able to showcase a lot of those things for him. And then with Joe, we’ve seen some really good glimpses of him in the early part of the season.”

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Jayden Armant is a graduate of the Howard University School of Communications and a contributor to Kansas State Wildcats on SI. He can be reached at jaydenshome14@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @jaydenarmant.



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