North Dakota tax collections running ahead of forecast

Tax collections in North Dakota continue to outpace the revenue forecasts.

“They are 14 percent, or $51 million, ahead of budget in April,” said State Office of Management and Budget director Susan Sisk. “Biennium to date, they’re 12 percent ahead of budget, or $264 million.”

Sisk said virtually every tax type is ahead of forecast – with the exception of individual income tax, with collections running slightly behind forecast.

“However, we have not yet finished our first tax season since the tax rate changes,” Sisk said. The 2023 Legislative session lowered taxes for many North Dakota filers.

“We still have processing to do,” Sisk said. “Once the dust settles, we’ll have a better idea on how close we are to forecast.”

Sisk said she expects going forward, collections will run much closer to forecast.

For the overall revenue picture and forecast, Sisk said there is stll a lot of risk around oil production and prices.

“Certainly, in a year with a presidential election, there is risk,” Sisk said. “We’re also waiting on the decision on the Dakota Access Pipeline. And everything going on overseas — it’s hard to say right now.”

Sisk said OMB puts together a budget forecast that she calls “reasonable but conservative.”