North Dakota
GOP presidential field grows to 9 with Mike Pence and North Dakota governor joining race
Whit Ayres:
No.
Chris Christie is very talented and very good at making an argument, very powerful at making an attack on his opponents. But the Republican Party is split into three factions. There’s a never-Trump faction that’s only about 10 percent. There’s an always-Trump faction of about 35 percent. Those people are always going to be with Trump regardless of the opponent.
The majority of the party, about 55 percent, are maybe-Trump voters. They have supported him twice. They would vote for him again against Joe Biden, but they’re worried about his electability. They’re worried he carries too much baggage, and they’re looking for alternatives.
Chris Christie’s message, arguing that Donald Trump is unfit for office, appeals to the never-Trumpers. But he’s going to tap out at about 10 percent. Saying that Donald Trump was unfit for office is an insult to the maybe-Trump voters who supported him twice. So he’s got no chance with those people.
The other candidates are trying to consolidate the maybe-Trump portion of the party.