College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for North Dakota vs. Nebraska (Saturday, Sept 3)

North Dakota vs. Nebraska Odds

Oh, brother, Nebraska has completed it once more!

Scott Frost’s seat is boiling scorching after the Huskers blew an 11-point result in Northwestern on their strategy to shedding their Week 0 battle.

This 12 months was alleged to be completely different.

Who loses to Northwestern?

Frost & Co. will try to bounce again in opposition to the North Dakota Preventing Hawks. UND went simply 5-6 final 12 months within the Missouri Valley, together with a 48-24 loss to Utah State as six-point canines.

Nebraska is 7-0 SU in opposition to FCS opponents since 2010, but in addition simply 3-4 ATS in these video games.

The road has opened at Nebraska -21.5 and stayed regular — similar with the full at 50.

Let’s discover some worth.

There are causes to be optimistic in regards to the Hawks. They misplaced 5 video games by a mean of 4.6 factors, all by single digits. They misplaced to eventual FCS champion NDSU by simply six factors and had an opportunity to take the lead within the fourth quarter.

Quarterback Tommy Schuster is again after main the Missouri Valley in completion share (65.5%) whereas tossing 2,500 yards and 13 touchdowns.

He loses his prime backfield weapon (Otis Weah) and the perfect offensive lineman (Matt Waletzko), however nearly your entire receiving corps is again.

The protection is in flux. It’ll be good to have Devon Krzanowski again anchoring at center linebacker — he led the group in tackles final season — however there are 5 positional battles, they usually’re counting on upperclassmen to take huge steps within the secondary.

It’s additionally value mentioning that the Hawks try to re-tool their whole particular groups unit.

That may be an indication that UND goes to lose a number of extra shut video games this season.

Nebraska out-played Northwestern in loads of methods. The Huskers had a better Success Fee, dominating on Passing Downs, received the Explosiveness battle and barely outscored Northwestern in Ending Drives.

I feel the Mark Whipple-Casey Thompson experiment goes to work. Thompson dropped over 350 yards, and Northwestern went into the half with a Passing Downs Success Fee of over 70%.

This offense got here out of the gate firing.

However then the standard Nebraska errors kicked in.

They missed a subject aim to finish the primary half. Thompson threw two picks within the second half, together with a game-ending one within the fourth quarter.

That absurd onside kick within the third quarter instantly led to a Northwestern landing. And what are you aware, Northwestern gained 1.46 Common Anticipated Factors to Nebraska’s 0.93 due to subject place alone.

It was a ridiculous determination that flipped the whole lot. Have a look at School Soccer Information’s Predicted Profitable Likelihood mannequin for the sport:

It’s additionally very clear that this protection is far worse than marketed. Northwestern has an improved offensive line, with a few very gifted tackles in entrance of first rate backfield depth. However to completely carve up Nebraska for 214 rush yards and two scores on 47 makes an attempt is absurd.

And Ryan Hilinski decimated Nebraska’s youthful secondary, finishing over 70% of his passes with a 2:0 TD-to-INT ratio.

It’s early, however I’ve realized two issues about Nebraska to date:

1. That is going to be an over group.
2. They’re going to maintain shedding shut video games.

North Dakota vs. Nebraska Betting Decide

There’s likelihood Nebraska bounces again and simply crushes North Dakota. However I hate betting Frost as a double-digit favourite, even when he has cut up his alternatives ATS within the spot.

Nevertheless, as I discussed, Nebraska goes to be an excellent over group. The offense ought to put up numbers on a North Dakota protection that’s nonetheless attempting to make the items match.

Plus, I feel the Preventing Hawks have an opportunity to possibly put collectively one, two or three scoring drives contemplating simply how ridiculous the Huskers’ protection seemed final week.

Bear in mind, North Dakota does return loads of offensive manufacturing.

Over 50 feels positive to me. I most likely need to guess it as much as 51.5.

Decide: Over 50 (Play to 51.5)