‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: North Dakota will play all-out in Grant Nelson’s homecoming

Alabama traveling to Grand Forks, North Dakota was obviously a nice gesture by the staff to Grant Nelson — seven states and 1400 miles away, it’s hard for friends and family to come to Tuscaloosa, much less keep track with the peripatetic Tide.

That is likely where the interest begins and ends. Nelson’s homecoming, in front of about 3000 people, will pique many emotions for the hometown favorite. But the game itself is a mismatch that should probably land Alabama in the Hague for war crimes: On the floor, it’s going to be a slaughter.

Tale of the Tape: North Dakota (No. 303, 4-8) vs Alabama (No. 7, 8-2)

Spread (Totals): Alabama -23.5 (O/U 163.5)

Opponent KenPom: 303 (224 offense, 345 defense, 160 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 309 (236 offense, 339 defense, 187 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 304 (240 offense, 331 defense, 187 tempo)
Opponent NET: N/R (Q4)
Opponent Best Win: N/A
Opponent Worst Loss: N/A

Alabama KenPom: 8th (6 Off, 36th Defense, 8th Tempo)
Evan Miya: 7th (3 Off, 17th Defense, 2nd Tempo)
Bart Torvik: 7 (3 Off, 27th Defense, 7th Tempo)
NET Ranking: 10 (3-2 Q1)
Best Win: No. 4 (N) Houston
Worst Loss: No. 28 at Purdue

It’s hard to write about Grant Nelson’s old team, the Fightin’ Hawks of UND, in any engaging fashion.

It’s a bad team, and a particularly bad offensive one. If you want to say something nice about UND, it’s that they have occasionally punched well outside of their weight class, scoring nice upset wins over Utah Valley, Loyola Marymount, and Weber State — all between 180 and 210 in KenPom. If they can get you playing their patient basketball, and keep things in the 70s, they’ve bought themselves a punchers chance at home.

And that should tell you what the strength of this group is, grading on a curve: a defense that has occasionally outpaced their expected performance (sitting at 161st based on adjusted schedule). In their four wins, the Hawks have won the battle for the paint, and in three of those, UND had more free throws than their opponents.

The first thing you have to know about UND is that they are a very streaky team. It’s rare for many guys to have good nights simultaneously; rather, the M.O. is one or two players going on a tear with the rest of the bench having an average night. This lack of consistent, multiple scoring options has cost UND several close games already this year. That is reflected in their shoot too. This is a terrible team from the floor, shooting just 45% (329), and are an even worse one from the perimeter (28.5%). In fact, there’s not a single player on the entire roster who you’d call a three-point specialist.

As you would expect in the Northern Plains, they’re a tall team, on average — especially for a Summit bottom-feeder, averaging close to 6’6”. But there’s no dominant big. The closest approximation to the usual “Giant White Midwest Guy in the Post” is 6’9” Amar Kuljuhovic. He is the second-leading scorer for the Hawks (12) and their leading rebounder (7). He’s not a great rim defender, is a pretty poor shooter for a big (54%), and turns it over a lot — though he does play reasonably good defense on the interior and hustles.

It’s a balanced scoring bunch, with four of five starters all averaging at 10+ a night, but the star of the show is Jr. PG Treysen Eaglestaff. The local kid is a huge point guard, standing at 6’6” and leads the Hawks in both points (18) and assists. Dariyus Woodson mans the SF spot, and is a very effective rebounder for a wingman. He’s also shown some flashes the last few games from beyond the arc.

Off the bench, 6’10” Brian Mathews is the best defender and street-sweeper (he actually leads UND in rebounds per possession). He’s an inconsistent scorer, but when given the chance to eat, the Hawks will feed him down low. Eli King will probably get more minutes in this one. He’s the first man off the bench to spell the starting backcourt, and is the most effective defender. He’s not the scorer that Eaglestaff or Panoam are, but he’s that mythical spark plug that does a lot of the dirty work.

UND does throw an unusual look at you too: Kuljuhovic at the forward-center spot, joined by a swing, and then a trio of true guards — and sometimes even four guards and a swing look. You would be tempted to call it a “small lineup,” except for the fact that have a dozen of their guards go 6’4”+. And, of the starters, the “small” shooting guard, Mier Panoam, is still 6’2”. That size is probably why the 75% of the starting backcourt average between four and six rebounds a night as part of UND’s team approach (we saw Creighton attempt the same).

Without an impact post presence, UND has to manufacture their second-chances with a group effort in crashing the glass. It pays off, as this is easily one of the best offensive rebounding teams that ‘Bama has faced (36th). But, again, without that big man, they tend to get clobbered on the defensive glass.

So, the Hawks would prefer to win with selectivity and keep their fortunes out of the hands of opposing bigs. They want a good look the first time on offense, and defensively they focus their efforts with on-ball defense. As you would expect with this sort of approach, NoDak out of necessity plays a deliberative, slower-paced game than the Tide is accustomed to seeing from more talented teams. But when it works, they can be quite competitive against most T3 / T4 teams.

Still, let’s not be under any illusion here either: this is not only an objectively bad team (4-8), it’s statistically bad, and easily the worst team Alabama has played in several seasons (IIRC, Alabama had a similar game in Coleman back in 2021). Will this likely be a laugher? You bet. The worst squad ‘Bama has faced to-date, No. 177 Asheville, was doubled up 110-54 by the Tide. And, if Alabama wants to keep the pressure up here, or starts hitting some perimeter shots, the Tide can probably name their score.

Bottom Line

This is going to be an exhibition for the Tide, a chance to shoot themselves out of their funk, valuable playing time for Mallette and Youngblood, and above all, a reward for Grant Nelson. But it’s not just a homecoming for Nelson, it’s also meaningful to the Hawks. Half of their roster are from North Dakota. They will give every bit of effort they have. It’s not a poorly coached team at all; it’s just a team short on impactful talent.

At the end of the day, you can’t help but think that Nate Oats will work on cleaning up ‘Bama’s turnovers and shooting, and give all of those bench players tons of quality playing time on the road. Confidence is necessary with SEC play starting in just two weeks.

How To Watch

8:00 Central on SEC CBS Sports Network

Prediction

Nate Oats is not noted for his merciful nature. Not that he would ask guys like Derrion Reid or Houston Mallette or Aiden Sherrell to take their foot off the gas when they finally get to log substantial minutes.

Alabama can and probably will name their score here. The Tide interior game, and pace of play, is just going to be way too much for the Hawks to even come close to matching.

Alabama 106
North Dakota 58

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.