Ohio State vs. Nebraska prediction: Who wins, and why?

Both coming off tough Big Ten losses, Nebraska and No. 4 Ohio State meet in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday looking for a turnaround. Here’s what you should watch for in this matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State was just 1 point shy of taking out Oregon two weeks ago and needs to be on its A-game against the Cornhuskers with a trip to Penn State coming up after this one.

Nebraska also needs a pick-me-up after getting shellacked on the road against Indiana in a 56-7 decision that drops the team to a 2-2 mark in Big Ten play this season.

What can we expect as the Buckeyes play host to the Cornhuskers in this Big Ten clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Ohio State and Nebraska meet in this Week 9 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State is 1 of 6 teams nationally to average over 500 total yards per game, ranking No. 6 with 503 yards on average, and it places 5th in FBS with 7.53 yards per play.

Nebraska comes into the game ranked 87th in FBS with 370 yards per game on average, and is 88th nationally with 5.54 yards per play.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State is No. 2 in college football in defensive production, allowing 251.3 yards per game, and is 7th nationally by surrendering 4.37 yards per play to opponents.

Nebraska ranks 18th in the country in allowing 304.3 yards per game on defense, and is top 25 nationally in letting opponents post 4.87 yards per play.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State ranks No. 6 nationally in scoring output, putting up 43.5 points per game on average, and its 36 total touchdowns are good for 12th in the country.

Nebraska is No. 88 among 134 FBS teams by scoring 25 points per game, and is 81st nationally with 23 total touchdowns scored on offense.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State is 3rd nationally by allowing opponents to score 11 points per game on average, and is No. 1 in surrendering 66 total points on the year, while its 8 touchdowns allowed are 3rd fewest.

Nebraska is 19th nationally, allowing 17.7 points per game this season, and the 16 touchdowns the defense allowed are the 28th fewest in the country.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State ranks 15th nationally in third down production, converting 48.61 percent of its chances, amounting to 35 conversions on 72 attempts.

Nebraska is 41st in FBS by moving the chains on 41 of 94 opportunities (43.62 percent).

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State has allowed opponents to convert 27 of their 84 third down opportunities for a success rate of 32.14 percent.

Nebraska has surrendered 34 successful third down conversions against 91 attempts (37.36 percent), ranking No. 61 in FBS.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State is No. 1 nationally in red zone offensive production, scoring points on 100 percent of its 26 opportunities, and its 24 touchdowns are 5th best (92.31 percent).

Nebraska is just 126th in red zone percentage, but still efficient at 71.43 percent, coming away with points on 20 of 28 chances.

Of those, 16 are touchdowns (57.14 percent).

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State has allowed opponents to score 7 times out of 10 opportunities inside the 20 yard line (70 percent).

And while half of those scores (5) were touchdowns, that’s still the second-fewest in FBS this year.

Nebraska is 41st nationally by allowing opponents to score 16 times out of 20 chances (80 percent), and 13 of those scores were touchdowns (65 percent).

Edge: Ohio State

Nebraska averaged 0.326 points per play, good for No. 91 nationally, against an Ohio State defense that is No. 4 in FBS by surrendering 0.184 points per play.

And the Cornhuskers average exactly 5 yards per play this season, ranking 96th nationally, while the Buckeyes allow 4.2 yards per play, No. 7 in FBS.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State is No. 6 nationally with an average of 0.644 points per play against a Nebraska defense that is 37th in the country allowing 0.314 points per play.

And the Buckeyes are No. 4 in FBS by averaging 7.5 yards per play, compared to a Cornhuskers defense that is No. 21 in allowing 4.8 yards per play.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State is 32.5 points better than its opponents on average this season, a figure boosted by some dominant victories against non-conference teams.

By comparison, Nebraska is averaging around 3.5 points better than its opposition, a number that came down after losing by 49 to Indiana last week.

Over the last three games, the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than opponents, while the Cornhuskers have averaged 8 points worse than their opposition.

In that time, Ohio State has averaged 34.7 points while Nebraska scored 16.3 points over that span.

At home, the Buckeyes are 41.3 points better than opponents, while the Cornhuskers are 15.5 points worse than teams when playing on the road this season.

Ohio State is scoring 48 points per game at home and Nebraska posts 17.5 points on the road.

When playing in the red zone on the road, the Cornhuskers have come away with points on 37.5 percent of their possessions, compared to the Buckeyes at 100 percent when playing at home.

Most analytical models favor the Buckeyes against the Cornhuskers in this Big Ten clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State comes out ahead in 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.7 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -6000 and for Nebraska at +1800 to win outright.

Don’t underestimate the Cornhuskers’ front seven to marginally curtail the Buckeyes’ ability to get whatever they want right away, especially as the latter just lost left tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending knee injury.

But after the performance of the defense, or lack thereof, last week against the Hoosiers, it’s a safe bet that Ohio State’s blue-chip skill players will eventually take the top off this secondary.

College Football HQ picks …

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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