Vanderbilt basketball vs. Missouri: Score prediction in matchup of teams with no SEC wins

Two SEC basketball teams will enter this weekend winless in conference games, and only one will emerge.

When Vanderbilt (5-15, 0-7 SEC) and Missouri (8-13, 0-8) face off at Memorial Gymnasium on Saturday (2:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network), it will be the battle for the bottom. The Commodores are on a seven-game losing streak and the Tigers are on an eight-game losing streak. Both teams have lost 11 of their past 12 games, with the lone win coming on Dec. 30 against a Quadrant 4 opponent.

Missouri has shown a bit more than Vanderbilt this season, with a No. 118 KenPom ranking (Vanderbilt is No. 193) and two wins over top-100 opponents in Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Both also have a Quadrant 4 loss: the Commodores to Presbyterian, and the Tigers to Jackson State.

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:

Is this Vanderbilt’s best chance for an SEC win?

KenPom gives Vanderbilt a 43% chance of winning this game, by far the highest of any remaining game. The next highest is a 32% chance in the home game against LSU.

That doesn’t mean that if Vanderbilt can’t win this game, that it will go winless in the SEC. But this is by far the best opportunity of avoiding that fate.

Strengths and weaknesses

Vanderbilt’s issue on offense is simply that it cannot shoot, ranking outside the top 300 nationwide in both 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage. The Commodores do some other aspects of offense fairly well, though. They do not turn the ball over much, they can get to the free-throw line and they are a good defensive rebounding team.

Missouri, on the other hand, is a better shooting team than Vanderbilt, especially on twos. The Tigers also avoid turning the ball over, but they are the worst team in the conference at offensive rebounding and second-worst at defensive rebounding. Missouri does not get to the free-throw line much on offense and also fouls a lot when on defense.

Undersized teams

Missouri and Vanderbilt are both relatively undersized.

The Commodores’ tallest active player is Carter Lang at 6-foot-9. Missouri does have a few players taller, including 7-footer Jordan Butler and 7-5 Connor Vanover, but neither player makes a huge impact: Vanover averages 4.2 points and 2.7 rebounds in 12 minutes per game and Butler averages two points and 2.1 rebounds in 9.4 minutes.

The Tigers do have one tall guard in Tamar Bates, who is 6-5. Bates is Missouri’s second-leading scorer with 13.8 points per game.

Despite the lack of size, the Tigers do excel at blocking shots, and everyone on the roster can generate steals thanks to coach Dennis Gates’ defense.

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Score prediction

Vanderbilt 68, Missouri 64: With a manageable home game against the team with which it is tied for last, there is no better opportunity for Vanderbilt to get its first SEC win.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on Twitter @aria_gerson.