Missouri
These ballot questions, including abortion access, certified for November ballot
Amendments and propositions on sports gambling, sheriffs retirement fund, voting rights and minimum wage also on ballot.
Four amendments to Missouri’s constitution and one proposition on minimum wage were certified Tuesday for the November ballot by Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft.
This includes one amendment that could eliminate Missouri’s abortion ban and enshrine abortion and contraception access.
More than 380,000 signatures were gathered in an initiative petition and were determined as sufficient in six of Missouri’s eight congressional districts. Republican lawmakers failed to pass initiative petition rule changes likely aimed at this issue during the Missouri General Assembly regular session earlier this year.
With the certification of the abortion access amendment, it likely takes the wind out of Republican sails for changing initiative petition rules next year, said Peverill Squire, professor of political science and Hicks and Martha Griffiths Chair in American Political Institutions at the University of Missouri, last month.
The abortion access question could help boost Democratic candidates in the November election, added Ben Warner, MU associate professor in the Department of Communication and co-director of the university’s Political Communication Institute.
“(Abortion rights) is a winner for Democrats if it is what voters have in mind when they go to the ballot box all over the country. It is unclear whether that will be top of mind for voters. That is why I would expect Democrats to do everything to make it top of mind,” Warner said last month.
The Amendment 3 ballot question will ask for a Yes or No vote to amend the Missouri Constitution to:
- establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, with any governmental interference of that right presumed invalid;
- remove Missouri’s ban on abortion;
- allow regulation of reproductive health care to improve or maintain the health of the patient;
- require the government not to discriminate, in government programs, funding, and other activities, against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care; and
- allow abortion to be restricted or banned after Fetal Viability except to protect the life or health of the woman?
Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in ballot information online notes local governmental entities estimate costs of at least $51,000 annually in reduced tax revenues and significant state revenue losses. A full fiscal note explaining the the estimated losses was not yet available.
Other ballot questions
Ballot amendment questions also were certified by Ashcroft on sports gambling (Amendment 2), sheriffs retirement fund (Amendment 6), voting rights (Amendment 7), and a proposition on minimum wage (Proposition A). The only one that failed certification was an Osage River gambling boat license amendment.
Amendment 2 depending on how the vote goes in November could allow sports betting, puts an age limit on betting, imposes taxes and license fees on sports betting, and allows the Missouri General assembly to enact laws consistent with the amendment. There is an estimated one-time cost of $660,000 and annual costs of $5.2 million. Initial license fees are estimated at $11.75 million and betting revenues are estimated anywhere from $0 to $28.9 million annually for the state. Local government revenue estimates were not available. Advocates say this will boost education funding.
Amendment 6 reestablishes a retirement fund for county sheriffs, county prosecutors and circuit court attorneys that had used ticket fines and court costs as its funding source. A state law from 1983 originally set up the fund, but it was deemed unconstitutional in 2021. Two bills signed in 2023 by Gov. Parson set up the Sheriff’s Retirement System, but a person elected Sheriff has to serve two four-year terms before they are vested by it and must contribute 5% toward their own pension. Those already retired could lose out on their pension under the old fund, based on statements made by Boone County Sheriff Dwayne Carey during a primary election forum last month. Carey sits on the Missouri Sheriffs retirement board.
Amendment 7 makes it unlawful for non U.S. citizens to vote in elections, which already is state law; prohibits ranked-choice voting; requires whoever has the most votes winning the party nomination during a primary election that their name is what is on the ballot for the general election, which already is done in Missouri. Ranked-choice voting is an electoral system in which voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots, per Ballotpedia. There is an exception for the final part of the amendment for municipal elections where more than one candidate may fill a seat, such as at-large alder persons, council members or trustees.
The proposition could raise Missouri minimum wage by $1.25 each year on Jan. 1 until 2026, bringing the state minimum wage to $15. The statutory proposition also requires employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked. State governmental entities estimate additional one-time costs of $0 to $53,000, and ongoing costs ranging from $0 to at least $256,000 per year by 2027. State and local government tax revenue changes are unknown and dependent on business decisions.
Charles Dunlap covers local government, community stories and other general subjects for the Tribune. You can reach him at cdunlap@columbiatribune.com or @CD_CDT on X, formerly Twitter. Subscribe to support vital local journalism.
Increased fertilizer prices have farmers concerned
Let’s look at how economic and farming experts see this playing out in the coming months, and what that means for all of us.
While industries across the U.S. are experiencing shortages as a result of the war in Iran, it appears Missouri farmers could come out without much impact — this year, at least.
The conflict has seen closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway for one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas. All the shipping disruption has increased the price of fuel, vital to the production of fertilizer, and has limited the export of nitrogen-based fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf.
Ultimately, experts say, it could disrupt the supply chain for months to come and further drive up grocery prices. The World Bank has even warned that the conflict could threaten food security worldwide.
Most Missouri row crop producers — whose fields yield corn, soybeans, cotton, rice and peanuts — had secured the majority of the fertilizer they needed for the year before the conflict began, said Ben Brown, University of Missouri Extension’s state crop row economist.
“There’s probably about 15% of our fertilizer needs still left from the row crop space that would have been used in-season,” Brown said. “The majority of it was already here and already paid for. For this growing season, there’s not as much of a concern about fertilizer as it would be next year.”
Dr. Joana Colussi, research assistant professor in Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, points to a late March survey of nearly 1,000 corn growers conducted by the National Corn Growers Association. Eight out of 10 corn growers said their 2026 corn acreage plans have not been impacted by the Middle East conflict, which has seen fertilizer prices spike as high as 45%.
In April, an American Farm Bureau Federation Fertilizer Availability Survey of more than 5,700 farmers and ranchers across the country plainly stated that “rising input costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East are adding strain to an already challenging farm economy.”
But the survey also found pronounced variance in fertilizer pre-booking rates by region. Fully 67% of Midwestern commodity farmers typically relying on soybean and corn — the nation’s two largest crops — reported having made fertilizer purchases ahead of the planting season that is now at its peak.
It’s a number more than twice as high as any other region.
“Given these crop rotations, pre-booking is more common in the Midwest, where fertilizer needs are typically larger and purchasing decisions are often made well ahead of planting,” the American Farm Bureau Federation stated. “As a result, a larger share of Midwestern farmers reported being able to secure the inputs they need before recent price increases.”
Looking ahead to this fall
None of this means the Midwestern farm economy is barreling onward and upward, impervious to the effects of the Iranian conflict.
Timing is everything in agriculture. The conflict in Iran broke out when farmers were on the precipice of their spring plant of corn and soybeans, typically used for livestock feed, food and biofuels. Fertilizers are applied just before or at planting time.
Most Midwestern farmers may have pre-purchased their fertilizers for this crop season — but farmers must plant with one eye fixed firmly on the future, said Brady Holst, vice chairman of the Illinois Soybean Association.
“Around 20% (of Midwest farmers) that put nitrogen (fertilizer) on (their farmland) in the spring or in (planting) season would be hit hard by higher prices because they are buying now or in the next month or two,” said Holst, who farms soybeans, corn and wheat on 3,600 acres in West Central Illinois.
“It has all farmers worried because usually they will buy fertilizer for this coming fall ahead of time. And fertilizer prices move slowly around the world, so it takes a long time for fertilizer prices to move down. So even if the (Iranian) conflict ended today, the price for fall fertilizer would still be elevated.”
Veronica Nigh, senior economist at The Fertilizer Institute, points out that the United States produces about 60% of its own total needs for the phosphate fertilizer used extensively in corn and soybean production.
The U.S. still imports a significant portion from Saudi Arabia, Nigh said during an April 23 seminar of the International Food Policy Research Institute and the Agricultural Market Information System.
“We have significant exposure from the Middle East,” she said. “From a timing perspective, however, those phosphate imports tend to come in earlier in the year, so much of that product was already in place prior to the Strait (of Hormuz) closure.”
But Nigh said one of the Fertilizer Institute’s members had reminded her that “we’re an industry that builds product for four months and then applies it for two.”
“So we’re now certainly getting into the time of the year where we’re looking and thinking and worrying about building those supplies for the fall application,” she said.
‘The whole world revolves around diesel fuel’
The war in Iran, in addition to issues with U.S. oil refineries, has led to record prices.
“Diesel fuel here in the U.S. is actually more expensive than it was in the run-up to the COVID-19 outbreak and the conflict that we saw in Russia and Ukraine. That’s how high diesel prices have gotten here lately,” Brown said. “It’s a combination of the Middle East plus some refinery issues in the U.S.”
Part of this is due to the fact that most of the oil produced in the U.S. is used for gasoline production, while heavy crude oil, which is used to produce diesel for tractors and trucks, is imported. This could lead to higher prices at the grocery store, Brown said.
“Any time we see higher oil prices, it increases the cost from farm gate to retail,” Brown said. “So much of the food dollar now comes from that part of the equation, that the real impact to producers is going to be the higher diesel fuel cost on all of this (and) the lack of production of agriculture commodities.”
Dairy farmer Jim Good, farm manager of Michigan State University’s Dairy Cattle Teaching & Research Center, pointed to a surge in diesel prices that, Good says, is putting the hurt on him.
Everything burns diesel fuel on a dairy farm — everything from tractors to semi-trucks, Good said.
“Everything is freighted in and freighted out (by semi trucks) on the dairy farm,” he said. “We’ve got feed coming in. We’ve got milk going out. The whole world revolves around diesel fuel, so when it goes from $3 a gallon to $6 a gallon, it gets to be pretty pricey.
“Some of our products — if you’re not raising your own grain products, those all have to be trucked in. We don’t have processing on site, so we’ve got to haul that milk out.”
The Iran war’s disruption of global energy production has led to steeper petrol, diesel and jet fuel prices. Diesel, which was averaging more than $5.70 a gallon in Michigan and Indiana as of May 1, according to AAA, remained above $4.40 on average following Memorial Day weekend. If the higher energy prices continue, that will also put pressure on Missouri producers.
“We are starting to see higher energy prices feed into the inflationary pressures,” Brown said. “Part of the expectation would be that if this continues, we’d see higher interest expenses for producers later in the year.”
During an April 13 visit to Michigan State University’s Dairy Cattle Teaching and Research Center, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins brought some help for Michigan’s specialty crop sectors — an increase from $165 million to $275 million in Specialty Crop grants.
Taking the long view
If the war with Iran continues, there will likely be impacts on Missouri producers next season, Brown said. Higher fertilizer prices would result in producers having to make changes to their crops.
“We’ll probably see a bit of higher fertilizer prices if (the war is) still around,” Brown said, which will likely result in farmers shifting “to the less fertilizer-dependent crops; reducing fertilizer, which potentially has an impact on yield — those would be things we expect for next year.”
The Illinois Soybean Association’s Holst finds hope in a push within Congress to let gas stations sell E-15 — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol — nationwide and year-round to ease fuel costs without forcing stations to overhaul their equipment. The U.S. House passed the legislation May 13 but it faces an uncertain future in the Senate.
The Environmental Protection Agency has issued temporary emergency fuel waivers to allow nationwide sales of E-15 in past years, but Holst said he and other farmers want it to be permanent.
“They were worried about that becoming a smog problem, but there’s been lots of queries and studies with more modern vehicles and how the gasoline system is now,” he said. “There’s not really a concern for that, so it’s just kind of the slow grinding cogs of the government. Technology’s advanced a lot faster than we can advance the legislation that’s out there.”
If fertilizer prices don’t come down for farmers by the middle of summer or this fall, Holst said, there will be noticeable “acreage shifts” — a move away from planting corn to planting soybeans, which require less nitrogen fertilizer, meaning lower production costs.
That would be felt in Illinois, the nation’s largest soybean producing state and second-largest corn producing state.
In a recent survey of 4,000 farmers across 26 states, Chicago-based Farmer’s Keeper LLC found considerable sentiment for such a shift.
“Since March 1, 21% of farmers said they plan to decrease their corn acres,” Farmer’s Keeper CEO Nick Tsiolis said in a recent episode of Ag Marketing IQ in Depth.
The Farmer’s Keeper survey tracks with findings from a recent Farm Futures Q1 survey, which showed 43% of farmers planning to grow less corn. But it also clashes with a March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report that predicted only a 3.4% decrease from last year’s corn plantings.
Tsiolis told Ag Marketing IQ in Depth that farmers must make future cropping decisions with great care.
“Soybeans could fall out of bed really quickly if oil prices drop and diesel costs come down,” he said.
“Farming is a long-term game,” Tsiolis said. “Profitability comes from balancing agronomic and budgeting decisions, not making drastic swings year to year.”
Looking ahead, Purdue’s Colussi and Langemeier say the U.S. and Brazil — the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter — must better protect themselves in the future from “external shocks” like the conflict in Iran. They called on the two nations to more aggressively expand their fertilizer production.
“This is a long-term challenge, but it is becoming increasingly necessary for both countries to remain competitive in the global grain market,” they wrote. “Greater supply security would reduce vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions and provide more stability in input costs for producers.”
News-Leader reporter Susan Szuch contributed to this story.
The Missouri State University Foundation announced May 27 more new private gifts for the Clifton M. Smart III University Advancement Center, including a custom “Mo State” Steinway player piano.
During Wednesday’s event, the foundation also announced that it is 100 days away from opening its doors.
While Missouri State University Foundation president and CEO Brent Dunn was supposed to speak at the event, a family emergency meant he was unavailable, and MSU President Richard “Biff” Williams took his place.
“This center will be far more than a building,” Williams said. “It will be a welcome front door for our alumni, for our donors and for our friends. It will be a place where relationships are strengthened, Missouri pride is celebrated and the future of our university continues to grow not only through philanthropy but also through engagement.”
The new gifts include:
- The Garnett Family Bears Den, previously referred to as Living Room, from Mark Garnett (1978), Diann Garnett (1996), Kimberly Garnett Foht (1998) and Stephanie Garnett Smith (2004 and 2006);
- A Mo State Custom Steinway Spirio Piano from Gordon Kinne (1975) and Laura Kinne (1979);
- The Bart Bailey and Amelia Bailey Counts Executive Breakout Room from Bart Bailey and Amelia Bailey Counts (1994);
- An advancement office from Clarence E. McElroy (1963);
- Mary Asher Tearney BearMobile from Mary Asher Tearney (1954);
- And the Stan and Ethel Curbow BearMobile from Stan Curbow (1959) and Ethel Curbow (1960).
Between the proceeds from the 2024 sale of the Kenneth E. Meyer Alumni Center and additional foundation contributions, $20 million of the $26 million project is the result of private support.
The alumni center was announced in April 2024 and is named after former President Clif Smart as the result of a gift from an anonymous donor that was more than $1 million.
At the time, Dunn said the donor wanted to “recognize the contributions Clif has made over his tenure at the university.”
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