Missouri
Credibility of state’s expert witnesses questioned in Missouri transgender health care trial • Missouri Independent
Missouri’s defense of a state law barring minors from beginning puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones will depend on whether the judge in the case puts stock in expert witnesses touting retracted studies and conspiracy theories about Jerry Sandusky.
Wright County Circuit Court Judge Craig Carter, who is presiding over a lawsuit challenging Missouri’s gender-affirming care restrictions, will have to weigh the credibility of expert witnesses alongside his judgment.
Questions of credibility came up Tuesday, when the Missouri Attorney General’s Office called as a witness John Michael Bailey, a psychology professor at Northwestern who testified about his now-retracted study entitled “Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria,” which concludes that adolescents identify as transgender as a result of social contagion.
But it was his social media post about the accusers of Jerry Sandusky that appeared to concern Carter.
Sandusky, a former college football coach, was convicted of molesting young boys over a period of at least 15 years. Bailey repeatedly posted on social media that he believes Sandusky is innocent.
“You believe the people testifying against Jerry Sandusky are lying?” Carter asked.
“I can see that if you are not familiar with the evidence that I am familiar with, you would be shocked,” Bailey told him.
“Mmhmm,” Carter replied.
Bailey said he had listened to a podcast and lauded the work of conservative commentator John Ziegler.
“Do you know (Ziegler)? Have you talked to anybody that was an eyewitness in that case?” Carter asked.
“I have read testimony, but I have not talked to anyone,” Bailey said.
Although the underlying case was not about Sandusky, the exchange may have chiseled away at Bailey’s credibility and showed a greater pattern of basing conclusions on secondary sources.
Bailey’s research on transgender youth has been retracted, which he chalked up to pressure from activists.
The academic journal that retracted his article cited an issue with informed consent protocol, meaning participants didn’t know their responses would be in an article. On cross-examination, the circumstances of his research became clearer.
To investigate his hypothesis of whether “rapid onset gender dysphoria” caused a rise in referrals to gender clinics, Bailey surveyed parents and guardians who interacted with the website ParentsofROGDKids.com, a website for parents who believe their child has rapid onset gender dysphoria.
He said the study’s co-author Suzanna Diaz isn’t a researcher, so she didn’t create the survey with typical informed-consent procedures. He didn’t explain that Diaz is a pseudonym.
He knew Diaz was associated with ParentsofROGDKids.com but didn’t know her real name and if she ran the website.
Diaz had created the questionnaire to “weed out troublemakers.”
When Bailey looked into detransitioners and desisters, which are people who have stopped or reversed gender-affirming care, he looked to the website Reddit and looked at groups titled “detrans” and “desist.”
Plaintiffs’ attorney Nora Huppert asked if he verified that participants had previously been diagnosed with gender dysphoria. Bailey admitted that he had not.
The other defense expert on the stand Tuesday was Dr. Daniel Weiss, an endocrinologist from Utah.
For 10 years in Ohio, Weiss accepted transgender adults as patients that needed cross-sex hormones, but later decided the intervention was harmful to prescribe.
“I’m opposed to it medically,” Weiss said of adults using cross-sex hormones to transition. “I think there’s no scientific evidence to support it. But if someone wants to do it, and they’re adequately informed, they can do it.”
His testimony included a look at adverse event reporting of puberty blockers, which he does not prescribe, and the discussion of risks to gender-affirming care.
When asked to compare the risks of puberty blockers to aspirin, he couldn’t make a direct comparison.
“It’s hard to compare,” he said. “With any intervention, you want to balance risk and benefit and look at all the treatment options.”
Gillian Wilcox, an attorney with the ACLU of Missouri, asked if he has published a peer-reviewed article on gender dysphoria. He hadn’t.
“My article, if I were to write one, would be rejected by most medical journals because there is no good treatment,” Weiss said. “I call it child-harming treatment. There is no good intervention.”
He has testified in favor of state bans on gender-affirming care for minors. He told Wilcox that the Center for Christian Virtue, an advocacy group with anti-LGBTQ views, asked him to testify and he was paid to prepare his testimony.
He does not have clinical experience with minors.
In the state’s pretrial brief, Solicitor General Joshua Divine wrote that defendants will only need to prove “medical and scientific uncertainty” to show that state lawmakers are allowed to enact restrictions on gender-affirming care.
Although the state has entered the trial confident in the task ahead, credibility may limit what the judge will consider from its experts.
Other witnesses Tuesday included parents, one of which lives in Chicago, who disagreed with their children about their transition.
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Missouri sportsbooks took $256,364,814 in wagers in May 2026, the lowest monthly handle since the market launched, yet operators posted their strongest revenue month yet at $21,250,814 on an 8.29% hold. The state collected $2,131,872 in tax. Six months after going live on December 1, 2025, Missouri has flipped the usual relationship between volume and revenue: handle keeps settling while revenue keeps climbing, because hold has risen steadily as the launch-period promotions fade. Online betting made up $252,593,427, or 98.53% of all wagers. Figures come from the Missouri Gaming Commission.
Missouri Sports Betting by Month, Since Launch
| Month | Handle | Online | Retail | GGR | Hold | State Tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | $543,039,131 | $538,881,520 | $4,157,612 | $20,758,443 | 3.82% | $521,201 |
| January 2026 | $385,138,868 | $380,412,197 | $4,726,670 | $6,703,555 | 1.74% | $137,873 |
| February 2026 | $277,005,418 | $273,285,304 | $3,720,114 | $10,301,007 | 3.72% | $1,214,627 |
| March 2026 | $329,355,588 | $324,060,170 | $5,295,418 | $20,757,550 | 6.30% | $2,178,985 |
| April 2026 | $273,397,863 | $269,884,804 | $3,513,059 | $20,284,270 | 7.42% | $2,028,427 |
| May 2026 | $256,364,814 | $252,593,427 | $3,771,387 | $21,250,814 | 8.29% | $2,131,873 |
Six Months In, Revenue Sets a Record
May marks a milestone worth pausing on. Missouri’s revenue reached its highest point yet even though its handle sank to a new low, a sign the market has moved past the giveaway-heavy launch phase and into steadier economics. Across its first six months, the state has now taken roughly $2.06 billion in total wagers, produced about $100.1 million in operator revenue, and delivered $8.2 million in tax. Crossing $100 million in cumulative revenue in half a year underlines how quickly Missouri established itself as a mid-sized market.
Handle Settles as the Launch Surge Fades
The volume side keeps normalizing. December’s $543 million opening was inflated by launch-day demand and heavy sign-up promotions, and handle has stepped down almost every month since, landing at $256.4 million in May, less than half that peak. Part of the decline is seasonal, with the sports calendar thinning as the basketball and hockey postseasons wind down and football stays months away. Part is simply the novelty wearing off. Mobile sportsbooks in Missouri continue to carry the market almost entirely, at 98.53% of May handle, a share that has held above 98% in every month since launch.
The Hold Keeps Climbing
The defining trend is the win rate. Hold ran at 3.82% in December, bottomed at 1.74% in January, then rose in four straight steps to 3.72%, 6.30%, 7.42%, and 8.29% in May. That climb is the engine behind the record revenue: as operators pull back the free bets and bonus play that suppressed early margins, more of each wagered dollar sticks. An 8.29% hold is still below the double-digit figures common in older markets, which suggests Missouri’s margin has further room to firm up as the market matures.
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JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (KFVS) – Governor Mike Kehoe signed Missouri’s Fiscal Year 2027 operating and capital improvement budget bills Tuesday, approving a plan that totals $50.7 billion.
In a news release, Kehoe said the budget is balanced and focuses on what he called “smart and necessary investments” while protecting taxpayer dollars.
What’s in the FY27 budget?
The governor’s office said the FY27 operating budget totals about $49.8 billion after vetoes, including $15.7 billion in general revenue.
State leaders highlighted several funding priorities:
Public safety
- $2 billion for law enforcement and community safety initiatives
- Includes funding for Missouri Blue Shield grants, Operation Relentless Pursuit and law enforcement academy scholarships, among other items
Economic development
- $338 million for business growth and innovation
- Includes support for the Missouri Technology Corporation, a statewide apprenticeship program, Missouri One Start and a public-private-employee shared funding child care model
Agriculture
- $59.4 million for agriculture and rural communities
- Includes investments tied to infrastructure and programs, including low-volume roads and Missouri FFA
Education
- $9.8 billion for K-12 and higher education
- Includes funding for the K-12 education foundation formula and transportation, the Empowerment Scholarship Account Program, career and technical centers and higher education
Health care
- $24.8 billion to support Missourians with physical, developmental and behavioral health needs
- Includes funding for self-directed supports, outpatient competency restoration and Medicaid reform
Concern over one-time funding, FY28 gap
The governor’s office said lawmakers stayed largely within his recommended spending levels, but did so by using $179.1 million in one-time cash to cover ongoing costs.
The state is also facing a projected shortfall of more than $500 million in FY28, according to the release.
“State government doesn’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem, and continuing to spend faster than we grow our economy is not a sustainable path forward,” Kehoe said in the news release.
Vetoes and spending restrictions
To meet the constitutional requirement of a balanced budget, Kehoe issued:
- 65 vetoes totaling more than $30 million in general revenue
- 78 expenditure restrictions totaling $441.3 million, including $337.2 million in general revenue
The governor’s office said the vetoes and restrictions were largely tied to new projects, improper funding sources for new appropriations or an over-appropriation of various funds.
What’s next
Budget discussions are expected to continue as state officials look ahead to FY28 and the projected gap.
Copyright 2026 KFVS. All rights reserved.
The Kansas City Chiefs selected linebacker Nick Bolton in the second round, 58th overall, of the 2021 NFL Draft. The University of Missouri Tigers star is a two-time Super Bowl champion and can now add Hall of Famer to his resume after a special reveal from head coach Andy Reid after a recent team practice.
“You guys know I’m a Missouri Tiger at heart; I had a chance to coach there, for you that didn’t know, before I got in the NFL. We got a couple of Missouri Tigers here, but we got one that’s real, real famous right now. Not only for his play here with the Chiefs, but also what he did at the University of Missouri,” said Reid. “He did great things there. We know him as kind of a team guy. He’s Nick Bolton, right? We know him as a team guy, the ultimate team guy, but today you’re going to get an individual award, bud. Today you’re going into the University of Missouri Athletic Hall of Fame.”
During his college football career at Missouri, Bolton was named First-Team All-SEC in 2019 and 2020 and Second-Team All-American in 2020.
Bolton had another impressive season in 2025, leading the Chiefs with 154 total tackles, along with a sack and an interception. He was selected as an alternate for the 2026 Pro Bowl Games.
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