‘The worst Super Bowl contender ever’: Minnesota, the luckiest team in NFL history, is about to be exposed

All of it appears wonderful for Minnesota as they head into the NFL playoffs as NFC North champions for the primary time in 5 years.

However underneath the floor, they’re dwelling the best lie in league historical past, changing into the last word instance of how a win-loss file doesn’t inform the entire story.

With one week left within the season, the Vikings are a formidable 12-4, sitting only one win again of Tremendous Bowl fancies Philadelphia and having way back clinched the division.

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The issue is it’s a file constructed on shut wins and fortunate bounces, and their total efficiency is nowhere close to pretty much as good.

The Guardian put it finest: they’re “the worst Tremendous Bowl contender ever”.

Regardless of having misplaced simply 4 video games this yr, Minnesota has allowed extra factors than it has scored throughout the season – 414 to 395, to be exact – which is solely absurd.

Examine their differential (-19) to that of the Eagles (+127), Cowboys (+145) and 49ers (+148) and you may see simply how distant they’re from the NFC’s elite.

The truth is Minnesota has a worse factors differential than division mates Detroit and Inexperienced Bay (who’re each 8-8), in addition to New Orleans (7-9 and received’t win the horrific NFC South), Cleveland (7-9), the New York Jets (7-9) or Las Vegas (6-10).

How does this occur? Nicely, once they win, they win shut – by 4 factors over Detroit, three over New Orleans, three over Washington, three over Buffalo, 5 over the Jets, three over Indianapolis and three over the Giants.

These wins over the Payments (due to a Josh Allen fumble within the endzone) and Colts (the most important comeback in NFL historical past, from 33 factors down) had been notably wild.

However once they lose, they get pumped, together with in two of their highest-profile video games of the season. Again in Week 11 in opposition to Dallas, the Vikings had been victims of a 40-3 beatdown, whereas this week in opposition to Inexperienced Bay – with an opportunity to smash their nice rivals’ playoff probabilities – they had been pumped 41-17.

Why does all of this matter? Nicely, it goes to a pattern that’s true throughout all sport – efficiency in shut video games is closely depending on luck.

There isn’t any such factor as a clutch group that at all times is aware of methods to win the shut ones. They might occur to win a variety of shut video games, because the Vikings have, however that doesn’t imply it’s a ability – claiming it’s is solely the human intuition to seek out order in randomness.

If groups might persistently win shut video games, we’d see them do it persistently from season to season. None do this. As a substitute, groups bounce randomly from sturdy information in shut video games one yr to horrible information the following.

And groups may even bounce round randomly in the identical yr. The prime instance in current occasions is Collingwood within the AFL, who went an absurd 11-1 in video games determined by lower than two targets in 2022… however then misplaced two very shut finals.

In the event that they possessed a ability at profitable shut video games, they absolutely would have proven it in an important video games of the season, somewhat than in opposition to lowly opposition in June and July. The reality is that they had been simply fortunate to win as many shut video games as they did, and their finals outcomes confirmed that.

On the different finish of the spectrum, large wins and losses expose the reality of a group. You can’t fluke your manner into profitable by 10 targets, or 4 touchdowns, or no matter it might be in your sport.

That is the place taking a look at what number of factors a group scores and concedes throughout a season is helpful. It washes out the noise of game-by-game outcomes, and provides us a much bigger pattern to look at.

You possibly can even go deeper and take a look at one thing referred to as Pythagorean wins, which explains what number of video games a group “ought to” have received primarily based on its total efficiency.

Within the case of Minnesota, no group has overperformed its Pythagorean complete in NFL historical past fairly like them.

As Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz posted, the Vikings “ought to” have received 7.5 video games this season (not 12). That 4.5-win hole is the most important in NFL historical past – no group has even been 4 video games forward of the file they “ought to” have recorded.

His outlet’s DVOA metric, which analyses groups on a play-by-play foundation, doesn’t simply say Minnesota is common. It says they’re genuinely unhealthy – twenty eighth within the league, or fifth-worst.

Bookmakers take a look at superior stats somewhat than simply win-loss information – as a result of the previous tells you extra a couple of group than the latter – which is why an in any other case bizarre-looking line has emerged for Week 18.

As Fansided’s Matt Verderame tweeted, Minnesota is as little as a one-point favorite to beat Chicago – regardless of the Bears being 3-13.

The Vikings will host a playoff recreation in just a few weeks’ time – that appears very more likely to be in opposition to the New York Giants, who’re locked into the sixth seed.

The Giants aren’t nice both; they’ve a season-long factors differential of 0. So there’s each probability Minnesota wins that recreation and heads into the divisional spherical.

However there they’re nearly sure to run into one among Philadelphia, San Francisco or Dallas. It ought to be an absolute massacre, primarily based on what we find out about all of those groups.

All of this negativity shouldn’t dissuade Vikings followers from having fun with this season – simply as followers of the aforementioned Collingwood adored their group’s 2022 marketing campaign. The experience is as essential, if no more so, than the vacation spot when just one group can win the championship. And profitable shut ones is thrilling.

However from an analytical perspective, there’s little cause to consider in Minnesota’s possibilities of claiming a primary Tremendous Bowl title.

Perhaps they’ll get into the playoffs Justin Jefferson will do outstanding issues, or possibly the opposing coach will screw issues up (this appears notably seemingly in the event that they’re in opposition to the Cowboys). Perhaps they’ll simply hold profitable.

The percentages can be closely in opposition to them although. As a result of the details are clear: they’re not that good.