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Sven Sundgaard: Minnesota summers are getting hotter and longer

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2 years ago

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Sven Sundgaard: Minnesota summers are getting hotter and longer


Already nearing the midway level of meteorological summer season and shocker: It’s a sizzling one. Once more. For the third consecutive yr, we’re more likely to register one of many 15 hottest summers in Twin Cities historical past. 

Final summer season was the most well liked recorded for the Twin Cities, beating 1988 and any summer season within the ‘Mud Bowl’ decade. If the pc fashions are appropriate, we might be headed towards one of many ten hottest Julys on file. This comes after the eleventh hottest June, which adopted the 2021 June that was the second hottest on file. 

With regards to local weather change, June and September are our quickest warming months within the heat season. July and August, the height of our summer season warmth, are warming extra slowly and subtly. Principally, summers are getting longer quite than extra excessive in Minnesota. It will get sizzling faster and earlier, and the warmth lasts longer into September. That’s why among the most dramatic adjustments we’re noticing are in early summer season and extended, heat autumns. 

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That is PRECISELY what you’d anticipate in a Greenhouse Impact world. Elevated fossil gas emissions lead to our environment trapping extra warmth, not essentially magnifying it or creating extra of it. This is the reason you’d anticipate summers to get longer, winters shorter, and nights to be hotter. That is additionally the rationale why the Arctic is warming quickest in winter regardless of being nearly completely in the dead of night.

Under is a tough illustration of what’s taking place:

Understanding the uneven warming of summer season months helps put into context summer season extremes, just like the Twin Cities hitting 101 levels on June 20. One-hundred levels isn’t extraordinary in Minnesota, however it’s rare. What’s way more fascinating is that it occurred in June. On the uncommon event we hit 100 levels (on common about as soon as each 5 years), 71% of the time it’s in July. 

June common temperatures have warmed about 1.5 levels F, which can not sound like lots, however that’s half of a regular deviation (a measure of the conventional vary from common). That warming is sufficient to improve the likelihood of hitting 101+ levels in June by 3 to 4 occasions the historic common. I’ve mentioned earlier than how shifting the common makes extremes exponentially extra (or much less on the chilly aspect) doubtless. Right here’s a graphic reminder:

The curve above represents the whole pile of data. Most temperature data will land in the middle, then less as you get away from the center (or average) and even less on the extreme sides. When you shift the middle, you chop off (cold) or pile on (warm) the extremes exponentially.

The curve above represents the entire pile of knowledge. Most temperature knowledge will land within the center, then much less as you get away from the middle (or common) and even much less on the intense sides. While you shift the center, you chop off (chilly) or pile on (heat) the extremes exponentially.

What about scorching warmth through the Mud Bowl?

A eager climate fanatic is aware of that the Mud Bowl summers of the Nineteen Thirties noticed many 100-degree days – greater than in every other decade. The Nineteen Thirties nevertheless are an anomaly that we have to separate from the century and a half file (in truth once we apply pattern strains they normally disappear). 

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There are research now that present fingerprints of human-caused local weather change we beforehand didn’t anticipate. Look ahead to an upcoming article on among the fascinating science on the Nineteen Thirties and the way it compares to the current decade.

The fundamental takeaway is that regardless of all the intense sizzling days within the Nineteen Thirties, the current decade is hotter than the Nineteen Thirties. Actually, if we take a look at the 15 hottest summers, No. 1 was final summer season. Sure, 2021 beat the entire Nineteen Thirties summers. Three of the 15 hottest summers are from the Nineteen Thirties (1933, 1936, 1937). Three of the most well liked are from the previous ten years: 2021, 2012, 2020. Even the common of the three most up-to-date summers is hotter than the three hottest Nineteen Thirties summers.

The positive signal that our sizzling summers now ARE a results of human-caused local weather change is that the warmth is constant and chronic. Positive, July 1936 hit 108 – the most well liked recorded temperature in Twin Cities historical past – and lots of 100+ days, however June of that yr was chilly and August that summer season was simply regular.

Whereas July 1936 was highly regarded, the general summer season local weather behaved extra like regular, with ups and downs. Final summer season was hotter general by being constantly sizzling, similar to this summer season to date. The cool breaks, in the event that they occur, aren’t as cool as they was once. 

If we take out the anomaly of the Nineteen Thirties (once more this will likely be mentioned in a future submit) and take a look at the primary 50 years of our 149 years record-keeping in comparison with the latest 50 years, you see a VERY clear pattern: There are 2.5 occasions extra 100+ days in the latest 5 many years than the primary 5, and 4 occasions extra 101+ days. Even simply wanting on the hottest day of every summer season and plotting a graph, the pattern is upward, even in case you embrace the Nineteen Thirties.

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summer EXTREMES

Probably the most related measure to point out our warming summers is common temperature, and the common now’s completely, undeniably a lot hotter than ever earlier than.

SUMMER HISTORIC

One of many massive shifts in our common temperatures are a results of very heat summer season nights, even separate from the city warmth island impact we see within the Twin Cities.

Statewide, nights are getting hotter (summer season and winter). Whereas the 101-degree day of June has particular local weather change fingerprints, it’s not as giant because the fingerprints on the 2 heat nights that surrounded that scorcher. We had three in a single day lows in a row within the 70s; the low on the June 20 was nearly 80 levels. The local weather shift index from Local weather Central illustrates this impression effectively.

CLI shift 06-20 low

The local weather shift index statistically extracts the part of human-caused local weather change from the information to provide a measure of local weather change’s impression on a particular temperature studying for a area.

For instance, the 101-degree day had a local weather change impression, however to a lesser diploma:

CLI shift 06-20 high

With nonetheless the vast majority of July to get via, all of the fashions mixed with the information already within the books, the Twin Cities has a 93% probability of being hotter than regular. As I discussed at first, the mannequin knowledge suggests this might even be one of many ten hottest Julys of all time. 

In case you’re on the lookout for a break in August, good luck. 

August 2022 forecast from the NMME model.

August 2022 forecast from the NMME mannequin.

If the long-range forecasts for the rest of July and August are realized, this might be a VERY sizzling summer season once more. It could doubtless make it the fifth-hottest summer season, hotter than 1936 or 1937 however simply behind 2012 and 1933. There’s nonetheless a bit of greater than half of summer season left and Mom Nature could produce other plans, however it’s troublesome to see how we reverse the hotter-than-average pattern any time quickly.

Utilizing July 12 for instance

To grasp statistics as they apply to temperatures (normalized knowledge, customary deviation, averages, and many others.), let’s take a look at July 12. We are able to plot each excessive temperature at MSP Airport on July 12 from 1873 via 2021.

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JULY 12 ex

The Greek letter after every quantity on the very backside is ‘sigma.’ It equates to at least one customary deviation, or how far the temperature deviates from the common. 

If knowledge is normalized (i.e. the median and the common are the identical), it can observe a bell curve. The extra knowledge you could have, the higher probability of this taking place. This is the reason we are able to’t inform a lot from 5 years of knowledge, however ten, 30 and even 100 years tells us lots. On this explicit case, we now have excessive temperatures for each July 12 for 149 years. The info strains up properly in a “regular” approach.

We are able to calculate the common (imply) and the usual deviation (sigma) from the information. 

On this case, the common excessive temperature is 84. The usual deviation is 6.6 levels F. The realm below the curve represents chances. So we are able to say that the common excessive is 84 and your +/- 1 customary deviation vary is 77 to 91 levels F. This represents the darkest blue a part of the bell curve within the heart. It equates to 68%, or 68% of the time the excessive temperature on July 12 will likely be between 77 and 91.

If we need to additional develop our vary to 2 customary deviations (2 sigma), we take the 6.6 levels F and double it +/- from the common. The 2 customary deviation vary, which represents the darkest, and middle-darkest blue areas, is about +/- 13 levels F, or a variety of 71 to 97. That equates to 95%, or 95% of the time the temperature falling between 71 and 97 on July 12. Something outdoors of this vary (a day within the 100s, or a day within the 60s) is fairly uncommon.

To present an instance of how a seemingly small shift can have an effect on every part, I’ve put the likelihood of every vary being hotter or colder than every customary deviation worth.

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Let’s say the common for July 12 had been to heat 3 levels F, or about half of a regular deviation (0.5 sigma). The typical would now be 87 as an alternative of 84, not a seemingly massive shift. However the excessive finish of 104 levels F would change. As of now, 104 levels F on July 12 is sort of unattainable (0.2% probability): a 1 in 500 yr prevalence. 

But when we shift this knowledge 3F as Minnesota’s common temperature warms, a median temperature of 87 would make the probabilities of hitting 104F more likely. 

At a median of 84F, hitting 104F would symbolize 3 customary deviations. However at 87F it turns into 2.5 customary deviations. The likelihood of hitting that temperature goes from simply 0.2% to 1.3%. 104F would nonetheless be rare, however it’s now six occasions extra more likely to occur: 1 in 77 years versus as soon as in half of a millennium.

On the cool aspect of issues, let’s say we take the two sigma worth of 71 levels F, which has a 2.3% probability. Properly, now it has solely a 1.3% probability, which means it has develop into nearly twice as unlikely because it was once. 

BMTN Notice: Climate occasions in isolation cannot at all times be pinned on local weather change, however the broader pattern of more and more extreme climate and record-breaking extremes seen in Minnesota and throughout the globe might be attributed on to the quickly warming local weather brought on by human exercise. The IPCC has warned that Earth is “firmly on monitor towards an unlivable world,” and says greenhouse fuel emissions have to be halved by 2030 so as to restrict warming to 1.5C, which might forestall probably the most catastrophic results on humankind. You’ll be able to learn extra right here.

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Minnesota

Minnesota farmers meet for annual convention

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7 hours ago

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November 24, 2024

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Minnesota farmers meet for annual convention


Members of the Minnesota Farmers Union came together in Minneapolis on Sunday for the 83rd-annual state convention.

The annual convention aims to bring the community together and focus on the future.

Union President Gary Wertish says one of the biggest challenges for farmers is high input prices for fertilizer and fuel. A sheet titled “Farmer’s Share” showed that farmers and ranchers only make 14.3 cents per every dollar spent by consumers.

“We see prices going up in the grocery store we often blame farmers. But the farmers aren’t getting a large part of the increase,” said Janet Kubat, the union’s communications director.

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Wertish says that on a national level, there’s a push for Congress to expand the current farm bill as a safety net for farmers.

As he looks to the future, he is concerned about President-Elect Trump’s proposed tariffs of 60-80% on Chinese goods, saying it could hurt farms and consumers.

The union also passed a policy in the school lunch program to have 20% of food or ingredients to come from local farmers.



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Minnesota Politicians Form Presidential Recommendations Committee

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16 hours ago

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November 24, 2024

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Minnesota Politicians Form Presidential Recommendations Committee


WASHINTON D.C. (WJON News) — Four Minnesota politicians have formed a committee to recommend candidates to President Donald Trump.

Congressmen Tom Emmer, Pete Stauber, Brad Finstad, and Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach announced the formation of the committee to help recommend candidates for U.S. Attorney, U.S. Marshal, and other vacancies that may come up in Minnesota.

Stefan Zaklin, Getty Images

The lawmakers say the committee’s members are some of the sharpest legal minds in Minnesota and they have a wealth of experience and expertise. The committee will be chaired by former Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Barry Anderson. The full committee will be:

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Barry Anderson (Chair), former Minnesota Supreme Court Justice
David Asp, Partner at Lockridge Grindal Nauen PLLP
John Hinderaker, President of the Center of the American Experiment
Allie Howell, Trial, and Appellate Counsel at the Upper Midwest Law Center
Tad Jude, a former judge in Minnesota’s Tenth Judicial District

Anna Rose Layden, Getty Images





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Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Game Day Preview

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1 day ago

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November 24, 2024

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Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Game Day Preview


Minnesota Vikings (8-2) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

Kickoff: Noon, Sunday

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: Fox (Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin)

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Radio: ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 FM (Omar Ramos, Miguel Esparza)

The Line: Vikings by 3 1/2, over/under 39 1/2 (Fan Duel).

Chicago Bears On SI Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 8

The Series: The teams meet for the 126th time. The Vikings hold a 66-58-2 series lead. The Bears have lost five of the last six even though they won the last game 12-10 at Minnesota. They are 33-27-2 at home in the series.

The Coaches: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell owns a 28-17 record in his third season. He is 3-1 against the Bears and 14-8 on the road overall.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus owns a 14-30 record in his third season and a 1-3 mark against Minnesota. The Bears have an 11-12 record in home games under Eberflus.

The Teams: The Bears come off their second walk-off shocker of the season, losing to Green Bay on a blocked Cairo Santos 46-yard field goal try, 20-19, for their fourth straight defeat. They now try to stop Minnesota (8-2), a team surging in second in the NFC North with a three-game winning streak behind QB Sam Darnold and WR Justin Jefferson. They just beat Tennesee 23-13. It’s Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams trying to handle the blitzing scheme of Vikings coordinator Brian Flores and the potent Vikings offense attack a Bears defense reeling a bit after allowing Green Bay’s go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter last week.   

Stat Leaders:  Vikings QB Sam Darnold is 199 of 293 (67.9%) with 2,387 yards, 19 TDs and 10 interceptions for a passer rating of 100.0. The Vikings are led in rushing by RB Aaron Jones, the former Packers back, with 692 yards on 157 carries (4.4 yards per carry) and two TDs. WR Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings in catches (59), receiving yards (912) and TDs (5).  …  LB Ivan Pace leads the Vikings defense in tackles with 59 while OLB Andrew Van Ginkel leads in tackles for loss with a league-high 13 and in sacks with 8.0. S Camryn Bynum has a team-high three interceptions.

For the Bear, QB Caleb Williams is 201 for 325 (61.8%) with nine TDs and five interceptions for a passer rating of 82.5. D’Andre Swift leads the Bears in rushing with 635 yards on 155 atempts and his five rushing TDs is tied with Roschon Johnson for the team lead. WR DJ Moore leads the Bears in receptions with 47 and is tied with Cole Kmet for TD receptions with three. WR Rome Odunze leads in receiving yards with 479. … LB TJ Edwards leads in tackles with 78 and is tied with Montez Sweat for the lead in tackles for loss with five. Gervon Dexter leads in sacks with 4.0 while CB Jaylon Johnson has the lead in interceptions with two.

Injury Report: For the Vikings, TE Josh Oliver (wrist) is out. DL Gabriel Murphy (knee) and TE Nick Muse (hand) are questionable.

For the Bears, G Ryan Bates (concussion) and S Elijah Hicks (ankle) are out. WR Keenan Allen (ankle), T Kiran Amegadjie (calf) and RB D’Andre Swift (groin) are questionable.

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Matching Up: The Vikings are 15th on offense, 13th in passing and 19th in rushing. They are 10th in scoring. Minnesota’s defense is ranked 10th, 28th against the pass and first against the run. They are fourth in points allowed.

The Bears are 29th on offense, 30th passing and 22nd at rushing. They are 22nd in points scored. Chicago’s defense ranks 14th overall, ninth against the pass and 23rd against the run. They are seventh in points allowed.

Of Note:  Williams has not thrown an interception in 146 attempts. … Williams has been sacked a league-high total of 41 times and the Vikings are third in sacks with 35. … The Bears rank No. 1 in red zone defense (40.6%). … Minnesota is plus-4 in turnover differential and the Bears plus-9, but the Vikings are 24-2 under O’Connell in games when they win or are even in turnovers. … Darnold’s total of 19 TD passes is a career high. …  The Bears are 3-1 when they lead at halftime and 1-5 when they trail at halftime. … Matt Eberflus has a 2-8 record for his career in replay challenges including 0-3 this season. …  Opponents have scored first in every single Bears game. … The Bears will have their starting offensive line intact for the first time since Oct. 27 against Washington. They had played together five straight games at that point. … The Vikings defense has two TD returns on interceptions (Van Ginkel) and one fumble return for a TD. … Minnesota is 8-0 this season when it outrushes the opponent. … Darnold is tied for second in passes of 25 yards or more with 24, trailing only Brock Purdy. … Jefferson leads the NFL with 17 catches of 20 yards or more.

BEARS AND VIKINGS FANTASY FOOTBALL FAVORITES AND NFL WEEK 12 PICKS

BEARS AND VIKINGS: WHO WINS AND WHY

REPORT: NO APOLOGY FOR BEARS FROM LEAGUE ON PACKER’ LEGAL BLOCKED KICK

DID JAYLON JOHNSON GET ENOUGH RESPECT FROM JUSTIN JEFFERSON?

Key Individual Matchups

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

There can be little doubt the Bears will put Johnson on Jefferson as much as possible. Johnson has a 65.3 passer rating against and has allowed 57.1% completions (20 of 35) when targeted. He has two interceptions and has allowed no TD passes this year, and three over the last three years after he gave up 10 his first two seasons.  Jefferson has had 81 receiving yards or more in eight games but his yards per game of 91.2 is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. When targeting Jefferson, QBs have an impressive passer rating of 103.4, but it’s the lowest passer rating when targeted of his career. 

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. Vikings RT Brian O’Neill

O’Neill has given up one sack this season and is graded the eight-best tackle out of 77 Pro Football Focus rates. He’s rated the eighth best pass blocker and 13th best run blocker among tackles on either side and has been flagged for four penalties, twice for holding, once for a false start and once for illegal formation.  Sweat has been having a difficult time registering sacks since the month of November. He still has 3 ½ sacks and made them all over the course of four straight games.   He has 14 pressures according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference and is well off the pace of last year when he had 40 for the season.

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Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Vikings CB Stephon Gilmore

The 34-year-old, 13-year veteran cornerback for Minnesota is a five-time Pro Bowl player and former defensive player of the year with the Patriots. He is with his sixth team and fifth in five seasons and is posting a solid 85.7 passer rating against with 61.7% completions allowed. He has given up two TDs. Moore is coming off his best game in terms of catches since Week 3 at Indianapolis. He had seven catches for 62 yards, is at 47 catches on 73 targets (64.4%) but is at a career low for average yardage (9.8 per catch). He came into the season averaging more than 14 yards a catch.  

Bears DT Gervon Dexter vs. Vikings LG Blake Brandel

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Brandel is graded 48th of 77 guards by PFF and wasn’t necessarily the intended starter. The 6-foot-7, 315-pounder has been a better pass blocker than run blocker. He’s graded 45th as a run blocker, 34th as a pass blocker. He might not have been starting but Dalton Risner suffered a back injury in training camp and was on IR until early November. Dexter’s ranking as one of the best defensive tackles in pass rush win rate has declined now and he’s 20th after spending most of the season in the top 10. He has gone five straight games without a sack, although he has already broken his rookie mark for QB hits with 14 and tied his rookie mark of 17 pressures. Dexter, who is supposed to be a disruptor in this scheme as a 3-technique, hasn’t had a tackle for loss since the Sept. 29 win over the Rams  and has just three on the year. He replaced Justin Jones this year after the free agent had 22 TFLs in two seasons.

Bears RT Darnell Wright vs. Vikings OLB Andrew Van Ginkel

The 6-4, 242-pound Van Ginkel won’t necessarily rush off the Bears’ right edge all the time. They move him around almost as a wild-card rusher. Sometimes he lines up on the edge and stunts to the middle. He’s always applying pressure from different positions, much the way the Packers did with Clay Matthews. However, it’s usually a starting point over Wright. Van Ginkel’s speed and knowledge of defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitzing system make him dangerous, and he has eight sacks with two interceptions. Both went for TD returns.  Wright   is graded 25th best tackle in the league by Pro Football Focus, but as been a better run blocker than pass blocker. He is ninth in run block win rate among all tackles according to ESPN.

Bears LB Tremaine Edmunds vs. Vikings TE TJ Hockenson

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The problem with trying to shut down Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with zones, like the Bears use, is it often leaves the middle linebacker trying to cover a wider area and the tight end can be open. Edmunds has gradually slid down the linebacker ranking charts after a fast start and is 66th on PFF’s grading out of 82 linebackers.  By Stathead stats, he is having a very solid year defending the pass with a 65.1 passer rating against, very low for a linebacker. He’s been generally less effective against the run. Hockensen will be in his fourth game post-knee surgery and appears ready to make strides. He’ll get used in the seams and underneath the coverage. He has 13 catches for 112 yards in three games. Tight ends have hit the Bears pass defense with some bigger numbers this year, so expect he’ll get looks.

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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Twitter: BearsOnSI





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