Minnesota presidential poll: Biden leads Trump post-conviction

The first poll conducted of Minnesota voters post-former President Donald Trump’s felony conviction shows President Joe Biden with a slight lead.

A new poll released by KARE11, MPR News and the Star Tribune found that the race to win the White House is still a close one in the North Star State.

Despite a Republican president not winning Minnesota in more than 50 years and Biden handily beating Trump in 2020, an unapproving and apathetic electorate is predicted to make 2024 a close election.

Here are the key takeaways from the poll.

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Biden leads Trump, but not by much

Of the 800 registered Minnesotan voters polled in the survey, 44.5% said they’d support Biden while 40.6% said they’d cast their vote for Trump with a margin of error of ± 3.5 %

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. holds 6.4% of the vote while 7% of those surveyed are undecided and 2% favor other candidates.

More: Elections 2024: Will Minnesota be a battleground state in November?

Who’s voting for who?

Minnesotan voters are sticking to their party lines, according to the results. Most Democrats supported Biden and Republicans Trump.

Independent voters are split. While nearly 12% said they were undecided, more than 37% of those polled said they’d cast their ballot for Trump, almost 35% for Biden.

Is RFK Jr. a spoiler candidate?

According to Kennedy, no, he doesn’t see himself as a spoiler.

Despite it being statistically unlikely that Kennedy wins the presidential election, his presence on the ballot is attracting unhappy voters away from their major party figures.

Thirteen percent of independent voters polled in Minnesota said they’d back Kennedy.

In an exclusive interview with USA TODAY, the 70-year-old said he’s the hope a lot of Americans are looking for.

“I think it’s important that Americans feel that its potential for democracy to work for them, and they don’t have to vote the lesser of two evils. They don’t have to hold their nose and vote for a candidate they don’t like because they hate the other guy worse,” Kennedy said.

In a race that looks like it might come down to single digits, the independent candidate could be enough to pull votes away from either candidate to secure them a victory, putting the race in an even closer position.

“I think it’s important to give them an alternative where they can continue to have hope for our democracy and vote out of inspiration rather than fear,” Kennedy said.

More: A look at the closest Minnesota presidential election races in the last 50 years

What do Minnesotans care about?

The poll identified five top issues for voters:

• Democracy (27.4%)
• Economy/jobs (26.1%)
• Immigration (14.6%)
• Crime (8%)
• Healthcare (7%)

Previous polling from KSTP/SurveyUSA gave Biden a two-point lead in both April and May surveys.

— Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporting fellow for USA Today. You can reach her at swoodward@gannett.com, on X @woodyreports, or on Threads @samjowoody