Latest Minnesota summer outlook inconclusive on heat, more certain of dry streak

Meteorological summer kicks off June 1 and lasts through August. So, is the heat here to stay in Minnesota?

With temperatures near 90 lately, summer is on everyone’s mind. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center says it’s a toss-up when it comes to temperatures over the three-month season.

“We’re going into an El Niño, and probably a very strong one, or a super El Niño, as they say,” said Pete Boulay, a climatologist with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. “And looking at past history, might be a cooler-than-normal summer. But we’ll have to wait and see what happens. If you stay dry, it’s going to be hard to stay cool.”

And no doubt, Minnesota has been dry already with drought conditions persisting across northern and southwestern parts of the state.

“Most places in the state are about 1-3 inches short of normal for May, and right about this time of year, we should get about an inch of rain a week,” Boulay said. “Every time we don’t get that rain, every week that goes by, the drought will come back.”

The summer outlook says it is more likely that conditions remain drier than average through August. Though we’re past the majority of Minnesota’s wildfire season, Boulay said if conditions are right, that could create elevated fire threats, unless you’re lucky enough to see some rain.

“We’re in that kind of lazy pattern right now. There’s a high pressure off to our east, and we have kind of the return flow coming out of the south, so warm, and you know, you still might have one of those thunderstorms pop up very isolated, but maybe you’ll get lucky and get one, but most people won’t,” he said.

Boulay said he doesn’t see any change in sight in the short-term with more heat on the way to kick off June.