Parts of central and southern Wisconsin are forecast to receive the heaviest amounts of rain on Tuesday as a system is expected to dump up to 2 inches of rain in parts of the state.

That’s according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service that shows the most significant rainfall southwest of the Madison area, in Dodgeville and Darlington. Milwaukee and other parts of southeastern Wisconsin are not expected to receive as much rain, with the forecast between .1-1.25 inch of rain for Milwaukee.

“You could see some heavy rain with that stuff, not necessarily for the Milwaukee area, but the areas west of the I-90 corridor,” said Kevin Wagner, a meteorologist at the Milwaukee office of the NWS.

Heavy rainfall and potential localized flooding in some areas is the main concern with the system, but Wagner said that wind gusts could be high as well. Those concerns are more likely southwest of Madison and into Iowa, he said.

Milwaukee should see scattered showers through the morning, before a brief lull in the midday, Wagner said. Around 5 p.m., rainfall is expected to return in central Wisconsin and gradually move towards Milwaukee.

Rain should return in heavier amounts to southeast Wisconsin with thunderstorm potential at night.

The NWS has also issued a high swim risk along the lakeshore line, between Sheboygan and Kenosha, through Tuesday evening. A high swim risk indicates that currents can be strong and that waves could be three to five feet tall or higher.

The alert says to “stay out of the water and away from dangerous areas like piers and break walls.”

Fourth of July forecast

The forecast for the Fourth of July is showing chances of rain in the Milwaukee area, but it may not ruin most of the day’s activities, Wagner said.

However, the rainfall is expected to have the highest chances later in the night and into Friday morning. That means that most of the holiday should be dry, he said.

“The trends have been pushing those rain chances back, so better chances for rain are going to be as early as Thursday evening and the better chance into Thursday night into Friday morning,” he said.

Wagner said there will likely be persistent showers on Friday.

Read mores about the July 4 forecast here.