The Atlanta Hawks got a thrilling win last night against the Memphis Grizzlies, but there is not much time to celebrate the win. Atlanta returns home tonight to face the the Milwaukee Bucks and their MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Hawks are fighting for positioning in the Eastern Conference play-in race while the Bucks are hoping to be one of the top four seeds in the conference and make a run at the NBA Finals.

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview for tonight’s game:

“Coming into tonight’s game, the Hawks are 7th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 16th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 13th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 17th in points per 100 possessions, 18th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in turnover percentage, 14th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 6th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 17th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

While not elite, the Bucks’ offense can run teams off the floor due to their shooting. They are 13th in the NBA in PPG, 7th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 2nd in 3P%, 11th in FTA, 8th in turnovers, and 17th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Milwaukee is 11th in points per 100 possessions, 5th in effective field goal percentage, 6th in turnover percentage, 30th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 14th in free throw rate.

As expected, any defense with Giannis, Lopez and complementary defenders has a strong baseline. They rank 12th in PPG allowed, 2nd in field goal percentage allowed, 25th in three-point attempts allowed, and 5th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bucks are 13th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 8th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Given that it’s been four straight games of Young scoring under 20 points, it’s hard to predict a sudden reversal in fortunes against a relatively strong Milwaukee defense. However, he should face a relatively soft matchup against Lillard and Trent Jr. Neither should be too much of a challenge for him to get past, but it’ll be tough for Young to find success against a paint defense anchored by Lopez. Still, this streak of low-scoring games of Young will end at some point – he’s too talented for it to persist.

LeVert was excellent in the clutch last night for the Hawks and has really embodied the bench scorer role that Atlanta needs him to fill. In the minutes that he shares with Young, his TS% rises from 54.6% to 60.9% and his three-point percentage goes from a paltry 29.4% to a respectable 34.6%. He’s certainly making a case to be back in Atlanta next season. In his last appearance against the Bucks, LeVert hit three of his attempts from deep and finished as a +18 in a Cavs blowout. The Hawks are hoping for more of the same tonight.

Since February 1st, Risacher is shooting a staggering 47.4% from deep on 4.4 attempts a game. His shooting has taken a massive step since the beginning of the season and it showed during the Memphis game. He went 5/7 from beyond the arc and complemented that with an excellent defensive effort, leading the Hawks with 4 steals. Risacher is still developing, but it’s been exciting to track his progress this year. He’ll likely spend some minutes on Giannis, which is going to be a learning experience, but the Bucks should be paying some attention to his shooting.

In his last game against Milwaukee, Okongwu racked up a 14-point, 12 rebound double-double and he’ll be looking to do something similar tonight. He was solid in the Memphis game and seems to have found a reliable baseline as the starting center. Lopez/Giannis is always a tough matchup, but the Hawks are coming off a great night of scoring in the paint (82 points) and scored 60 against the Bucks in their last game. Things won’t be as easy with Giannis in the lineup, but he’ll need to find a way to have some success tonight.

Dyson Daniels is going to be tasked with the unenviable responsibility of shutting down Lillard. In his last game versus the Hawks, the Bucks guard went for 23 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. However, he did have four turnovers and only shot 30% from deep. It’s hard to say Atlanta really limited him, but he wasn’t able to take over the game. It’ll be easier for Lillard to do that when the Hawks also have to limit Giannis. Therefore, Daniels is going to have a big responsibility tonight.

In terms of larger trends, the Bucks have a putrid OREB%. This is an area that the Hawks have been good in (8th best OREB average in the NBA), but they got beat up on the boards against Memphis. Even with Milwaukee’s size, that cannot happen again. On the interior, Atlanta scored a season-high 82 points in the paint against Memphis, which is the third most in an NBA game this season. It would be good to see that translate against Milwaukee. Giannis is coming into this game with a calf issue, so it’s possible that he won’t be at his best on defense.

Every win counts, but getting a win over a playoff team with a much better record would be extraordinarily helpful for Atlanta’s chances of locking up a top-eight seed. With a more stable effort on defense, better rebounding and a similarly balanced offensive approach, there’s a chance the Hawks can stack back-to-back wins for the first time since Feb. 10th.

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Milwaukee is a 7 point favorite tonight and the over/under is set at 239.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 

This is going to be a tough task for the Hawks. Milwaukee is not invincible by any means, but the Hawks just do not have a good way of slowing down Giannis (who does?). Coupled with the fact they are on a back-to-back and Milwaukee is rested, it will be a hard game for the Hawks to win. I think they keep the game close, but Antetokounmpo will have a huge game and propel them to victory.

Final Score: Bucks 127, Hawks 119

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