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Updated winter temp forecast just got warmer for Michigan, here’s why

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Updated winter temp forecast just got warmer for Michigan, here’s why


Long-range weather forecasts are always updated gradually as we get closer to the time period of the forecast. The winter forecast has just been updated by NOAA’s long-range forecasting experts. There’s a meaningful tweak to Michigan’s winter temperature forecast.

The tweak to the December to February temperature forecast for Michigan is to a slightly warmer scenario than the winter forecast issued one month ago. NOAA does update what they call the seasonal forecasts, which are three-month forecasts. They give us an update once a month. Yesterday the updated extended forecasts were issued.

Here’s the newest December to February temperature forecast. Just below the latest forecast I have the previous forecast for you to compare the changes.

Notice much of Lower Michigan and the eastern Upper Peninsula have been shifted into an area that leans toward having a warmer than normal winter. This first level into warmer than normal temperatures would imply it will be a slightly warmer than normal winter, if this forecast verifies as correct.

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Latest issuance of winter temperature forecast, issued September 19, 2024NOAA

You can see the previous forecast last month had NOAA indicating it thought our winter temperatures could fall either to just slightly colder than normal to just slightly warmer than normal. Of course in that type of forecast a near normal temperature for winter is the most likely scenario.

longrangewx

Previous issuance of winter temperature forecast, issued August 15, 2024NOAA

Now NOAA leans toward us having a slightly warmer than normal winter.

So why the change? There’s a great reason. La Niña was one of the conditions expected to develop now or soon and influence our winter weather. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. La Niña is said to be occurring when a large part of the Pacific Ocean along the equator turns colder than normal.

Well, La Niña is being slow to develop. The newest computer model projections produce only a weak La Niña and for only a short duration. The weak La Niña won’t produce the weather effects a strong La Niña would have produced. A strong La Niña often makes a cold winter for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. While the really cold sign fades in Wisconsin, we find the cold air is close enough to occasionally leak into Michigan. With a weak La Niña we may not see a large pool of very cold air just to our northwest.

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So for the winter temperature forecast we go back to the 800-pound gorilla of extended forecasting now – global warming. With warmer oceans and rapidly warming polar regions, it’s just harder to have sustained BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Sorry I have to shout at you. I do this to protect myself. This doesn’t mean you might not think it’s cold. I don’t know what you call cold. But to have a long-lasting several month period of extreme cold is going to be very hard to do in the current cycle of a warming globe.

What does this new forecast mean in real useful terms? It means we likely have several stretches of a few days to a week when afternoon temperatures warm above freezing in the middle of winter. This means if we get nasty ice packed roads from a snowstorm or ice storm, it will melt off in a week or two.

The La Niña was predicted to last into early summer and then fade to what we call neutral conditions- neither El Niño or La Niña going on. Now the latest models show the La Niña ending sometime between February and April.

You’ll still need your winter coat based on this latest winter forecast update. You just might not need it every day this winter.



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Michigan football flips 3-star offensive tackle Tommy Fraumann

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Michigan football flips 3-star offensive tackle Tommy Fraumann


Michigan has added legacy Tommy Fraumann, a 6-foot-7 offensive tackle, to its 2026 class.

Fraumann, rated three stars, had been committed to Miami (Ohio). He announced his decision a day after three-star linebacker Aden Reeder flipped from Wisconsin to Michigan.

Fraumann, out of Wilmette (Illinois) Loyola Academy, is ranked 76th nationally at tackle. His father, Robert, lettered at Michigan in 2000.

Michigan now has 23 commits to the 2026 class. 

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achengelis@detroitnews.com

@chengelis



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It’s ‘stick view’ season at Michigan’s highest scenic drive

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It’s ‘stick view’ season at Michigan’s highest scenic drive


EAGLE HARBOR TOWNSHIP, MI – The leaves are falling, but the snow isn’t flying yet: It’s “stick view” season at Michigan’s highest scenic drive.

traces the spine of an ancient fault line as it rises 700 feet above the surface of Lake Superior, ending at the summit where epic fall color stretches in every direction.

The crown jewel of the state’s scenic drives, Brockway Mountain Drive traces the spine of an ancient fault line as it rises 720 feet above the surface of Lake Superior. At the summit, visitors find panoramic views of turbulent Great Lake and surrounding forestland. It’s the tallest scenic drive between the Rocky and Allegheny mountains.

When epic fall color fades and leaves drift the ground around Brockway Mountain Drive, what’s left is “stick season views.” Visit Keweenaw invites travelers to enjoy late fall’s unobstructed views before the snow flies and makes this route impassable.Visit Keweenaw

A month ago, epic fall color stretched out in every direction. Today, the color explosion has faded and russet leaves drifted to the ground leaving behind bare trees. Some refer to this time as “stick season.”

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This U.P. drive takes you 700 feet above Lake Superior, where epic fall color stretches out in every direction

The nine-mile route to the plateau is open from May to late fall; specifically, whenever snowfall makes it impassable. At that point, it closes to vehicles and opens to snowmobiles.

Visit Keweenaw makes the argument that the late fall “stick views” are worth the drive.

“As autumn’s leaves return to the earth’s surface, tree lines and outlooks see increased visibility,” said Jesse Weiderhold, managing director of Visit Keweenaw. “Peer through trees that would normally obstruct views for more open views of Lake Superior and the surrounding Keweenaw. See further in forests and enjoy fall’s last triumph before the snow falls.”

Gorgeous view can be seen from new overlook on Brockway Mountain trail

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Other activities to enjoy at the top of Brockway this time of year include wildlife observation and birdwatching, hiking and biking, and night sky watching.

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Michigan State University partially reverses policy on co-ed community bathrooms after complaint

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Michigan State University partially reverses policy on co-ed community bathrooms after complaint


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Michigan State University has partially reversed course on its decision to make all community bathrooms in its honors dorm co-ed, following complaints from students and parents who said the arrangement made them uncomfortable.

Officials placed new signs at Campbell Hall last week to label some bathrooms by gender, a shift that came after a formal complaint and survey results showing unease among residents about a $37.1 million renovation that turned all 20 community bathrooms into unisex facilities.

Parents were not notified beforehand that bathrooms would no longer be separated by gender — prompting at least one student to seek out other facilities, according to a parent’s letter.

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Michigan State University partially ended its co-ed community bathrooms in its honors dorm. (Istock/ AndreyPopov)

The facilities were the first co-ed community bathrooms of their kind at any of the institution’s 27 dorms. MSU said it moved to unisex community bathrooms at Campbell Hall to adapt to a future shift in student populations.

“Following review of the survey data, the decision was made to provide options for students,” MSU spokesperson Kat Cooper said in a statement to Bridge Michigan.

The honors dorm spans four floors and includes 20 shared bathrooms, along with five single-use restrooms. Cooper said she was unsure how many of the community bathrooms will remain unisex and how many will be assigned as male or female.

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The university did not notify parents that bathrooms would not be designated by gender. (Getty Images)

In an email to Campbell Hall residents, school officials said that bathrooms “will be configured as much as possible to the gender make-up of the community” on the ground and first floors, where there are two community bathrooms, and “gendered bathroom options” on the second and third floors of the dorm, where there are eight community bathrooms, as well as single-use restrooms.

“We wanted to ensure that no room moves were required as part of these changes,” the email reads. “The updates are intended to offer more choice and help residents feel more comfortable in their daily routines.”

Some members of the MSU Board of Trustees said this week that the university made the right call in responding to student and parent feedback.

Bathroom sign male and female

The dorm has four floors with 20 community bathrooms and five single-use bathrooms. (Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

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“I’m happy that the university listens to the concerns of its students,” Trustee Mike Balow said.

“It’s important for our students to feel comfortable and to have options. This is the right move by the university,” Trustee Dennis Denno added.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.



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