Trump narrowly leads Biden in key state of Michigan: poll

Former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Biden in a new head-to-head poll of the key state of Michigan — but the race is slightly closer than it was two months ago.

The Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. survey published Monday showed Trump getting 49% support compared to Biden’s 47%, with the remaining 4% of voters undecided.

The race is even tighter when a trio of third-party candidates are introduced, with Trump at 46%; Biden at 45%; independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%; and the Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Cornel West each receiving 1%.

“Trump leads in the two-way race because he has solidified the Republican base better than Biden
has solidified the Democratic base,” Mitchell Research President Steve Mitchell said. “Trump is getting 92% of the GOP vote compared to Biden’s 89% of the Democrats.

“More importantly, Trump is getting 9% of the Democrats while Biden is getting only 4% of the Republicans. Biden is leading with the important group of voters, independents 49% –43%.”

In the five-way race, Kennedy, who will be on the Michigan ballot Nov. 5, takes 4% of his support from would-be Trump voters and just 1% support away from would-be Biden backers.

A poll conducted in March by the same organization showed Trump, 77, leading Biden, 81, by 47% to 44% head-to-head and 44% to 42% in the multi-candidate race.

Biden won the Mitten State by 2.78 percentage points in 2020, while Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 0.23 percentage points four years earlier.

Both major party contenders have been targeting Michigan, with Trump most recently holding a rally in the battleground state on May 1 that focused on on electric vehicles, immigration and the economy.

Biden last visited Michigan on May 19, also focusing on the economy.

The economy ranked as the No. 1 issue for Michigan voters in the poll (34%), while “threats to Democracy” and immigration placed second and third with 21% and 17% each.

Biden’s smaller share of support among Democrats compared to Trump’s backing among Republicans could be attributed to the anti-Biden protest movement among the state’s large population of Muslims and Arab Americans, who called for voters to mark themselves “uncommitted” in the state’s Feb. 27 Democratic primary due to his handling of the war in the Middle East.

Ultimately, more than 100,000 voters followed through with the protest.

The poll also shows Michigan Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in the US Senate race that could help decide the control of the chamber.

Slotkin, who jumped into the race after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) announced she would retire, is polling at 40% compared to Rogers’ 36%. Another 17% percent said they were undecided while 7% said they would favor another candidate.

The poll of 697 likely voters was conducted via text message May 20-21 and has a margin of error of 3.71%.