Michigan
Re-visiting preseason predictions for Michigan Basketball
Projecting how well a college basketball team will perform has become harder and harder thanks to NIL and the transfer portal. That hasn’t stopped us (or anyone else) from making predictions.
Today, we took the time to re-visit some of our projections both from the preseason and in-season as well. So how did we do?
Let’s start all the way back in May 2024. Following Dusty May’s construction of his inaugural roster in Ann Arbor, we asked our readers what their expectations are for the 2024-25 season. It turns out we all underestimated how good the Wolverines would be — 48 percent predicted one NCAA Tournament victory, 40 percent predicted an NCAA Tournament appearance but no wins, nine percent chose Michigan would be on the wrong side of the bubble, and two percent thought it would be a true rebuild.
The fact we didn’t even pose the Sweet Sixteen as an option shows just how wildly the season played out.
In August, we took our first stab at projection a starting lineup and rotation. While we nailed the back court, we had one glaring omission in the front court.
On the guard duo of Tre Donaldson and Rubin Jones:
[…] It would make sense for Donaldson and Jones to both start. Donaldson proved to be a valuable shot-creator at Auburn, and Jones brings tons of experience and excellent on-ball defense. Jones is the type of experienced guard every team could use, so he seems like one of the locks to start looking at this roster on paper.
On Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin sharing the floor:
May and Michigan’s assistants did hint Goldin and Wolf could share the floor for stretches, but that pairing both being in the starting lineup seems unlikely. With Goldin as the starting center, I could see Wolf serving as the backup center who can earn more minutes if he makes his shots. In the second unit, he also has more of a chance to be a lead creator, which is a good thing for his long-term growth.
I’ll give us half points for complimenting Wolf’s chance at being a lead creator, but he was far from a backup center. Not only did Wolf start every game, he became Michigan’s best player rather quickly.
Next, let’s look at our starting lineup projection from October. While we still had the back court mostly correct, we still vastly underrated Area 50-1. The idea of a 7-footer pick-and-roll hadn’t appeared in anyone’s minds yet.
Fast forward to mid-January with 13 games left, when we took a game-by-game approach to projecting the remainder of the season:
- At Purdue: Projected loss, Actual loss
- Vs. Penn State: Projected win, Actual win
- At Rutgers: Projected win, Actual win
- Vs. Oregon: Projected win, Actual win
- At Indiana: Projected win, Actual win
- Vs. Purdue: Projected win, Actual win
- At Ohio State: Projected loss, Actual win
- Vs. Michigan State: Projected win, Actual loss
- At Nebraska: Projected loss, Actual win
- Vs. Rutgers: Projected win, Actual win
- Vs. Illinois: Projected loss, Actual loss
- Vs. Maryland: Projected win, Actual loss
- At Michigan State: Projected loss, Actual loss
Final Record: Projected 22-9 (14-6 in conference), Actual 22-9 (14-6)
Our midseason projection absolutely nailed Michigan’s final record. However, how the Wolverines got there went a little bit unexpected. We correctly predicted the result of nine of the 13 games. In two games, we projected a loss when Michigan ended up winning (at Ohio State, at Nebraska). Vice versa, twice we projected a Michigan win when the Wolverines came up short (vs. Michigan State, vs. Maryland).
Lastly, we turned to KenPom in mid-February to make one final prediction on how Michigan’s post-season would play out. We looked at historical teams that KenPom gave Michigan a similar resume to. While Michigan ended up being seeded significantly lower than most of the similar teams, we hit the post-season ceiling on the money:
March Madness is great because of the chaos, and there is certainly plenty of that to be had. But based on the historical metrics of where teams similar to Michigan’s current KenPom ratings, it appears the ceiling this year is a Sweet 16 run, while an exit before winning a game is also in the cards. Anything beyond that on either side of the spectrum would be a bit of a surprise.
All in all, I don’t think we did too bad for predicting an entirely new roster in a newly expanded conference.
Before-and-after images of homes on Black Lake near Onaway provide perspectives on how the community was affected by April flooding.
Snowmelt and rain have stressed dams and caused lakes to flood in northern Michigan.
The Cheboygan County Sheriff’s Office shared on social media photos and videos that the agency captured of Cheboygan County floods on Friday, April 17 from both the ground and air.
Deputies “observed a level of destruction that simply cannot be understood from ground level,” the sheriff’s office said in the post.
Google Maps images taken from two locations on Black Lake in 2024, compared with the Friday images, show how the floodwater has changed the landscape.
On North Black River Road and Taylor Road, the water has overflowed to North Black River Road.
In the 400 block of South Black River Road, water has also flooded homes and lakeside property.
“Black Lake, Black River, Cheboygan River, Burt Lake, Mullet Lake, the Sturgeon River − and nearly every waterway in the county have overflowed beyond their banks, swallowing docks, roads, yards, and in far too many cases, homes,” the sheriff’s office post said. “What should be familiar shorelines are now unrecognizable expanses of water.”
“Our hearts are with every family affected by this flooding,” Cheboygan County Sheriff Todd Ross said in the post. “We know many of you are facing significant damage to your homes and property, and the emotional toll that comes with it. Please know you are not alone. We are working around the clock with our partners to ensure safety, provide support, and begin the process of recovery. Stay strong, stay connected, and don’t hesitate to reach out for help, we will get through this together.”
Nearby, the UAW Black Lake Conference Center shared images on social media of floodwater threatening its Old Lodge.
The conference center is located at 2000 Maxon Road in Waverly Township.
The Cheboygan County Road Commission and the Cheboygan County Office of Emergency Management closed the bridge at Five Mile Point Road on Saturday, April 18 due to significant road washout in the area of South Black River Road and Red Bridge Road.
The sheriff’s office had encouraged residents in parts of the area to evacuate earlier in the week and said Saturday it had completed evacuation efforts on the west side of the lake.
TEXAS TOWNSHIP, Mich. — A 20-year-old Kalamazoo man is dead after crashing his vehicle into a tree Friday evening in Texas Township, according to Michigan State Police (MSP).
It happened on South 3rd Street and West PQ Avenue around 6:50 p.m., troopers said.
While he was driving in a no-passing zone, the Kalamazoo man swerved off the road to avoid an oncoming vehicle and subsequently crashed into the tree, according to MSP.
The 20-year-old died at the scene. A passenger was hurt, but police said their injuries were non-life threatening.
Troopers do not believe alcohol or drugs were a factor, and the two were reportedly wearing seatbelts.
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This incident remains under investigation by MSP.
A Southfield man has pleaded guilty to illegally possessing driver’s licenses, Social Security cards and equipment to create fake documents, federal prosecutors said.
Jerome Antwan Andrews, 41, pleaded guilty Thursday to possessing the driver’s license information and Social Security numbers of more than 250 people in a scheme that caused more than $550,000 in fraud losses, U.S. Attorney Jerome Gorgon Jr. said.
As part of his plea agreement, prosecutors say Andrews admitted to having an embosser, a laminator, a card cutter and an ID card printer and admitted that his business model was aimed at creating and selling fake Social Security cards and driver’s licenses in the names of real people.
“Jerome Antwan Andrews and his criminal associates stole more than $1.5 million by submitting hundreds of fraudulent claims to a pandemic program intended to help unemployed American workers. Today’s conviction of Andrews represents yet another attack in our war against fraud. It sends a stern warning that my office will relentlessly investigate those bad actors greedily lining their pockets with U.S. taxpayer funds,” said Anthony P. D’Esposito, Inspector General for the U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Inspector General.
Andrews faces up to 15 years in prison and a $250,000 fine or twice the pecuniary gain or loss, according to prosecutors. He will be sentenced at a later date.
Homeland Security Investigations and the U.S. Department of Labor investigated Andrews’ case.
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