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Re-visiting preseason predictions for Michigan Basketball

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Re-visiting preseason predictions for Michigan Basketball


Projecting how well a college basketball team will perform has become harder and harder thanks to NIL and the transfer portal. That hasn’t stopped us (or anyone else) from making predictions.

Today, we took the time to re-visit some of our projections both from the preseason and in-season as well. So how did we do?

Let’s start all the way back in May 2024. Following Dusty May’s construction of his inaugural roster in Ann Arbor, we asked our readers what their expectations are for the 2024-25 season. It turns out we all underestimated how good the Wolverines would be — 48 percent predicted one NCAA Tournament victory, 40 percent predicted an NCAA Tournament appearance but no wins, nine percent chose Michigan would be on the wrong side of the bubble, and two percent thought it would be a true rebuild.

The fact we didn’t even pose the Sweet Sixteen as an option shows just how wildly the season played out.

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In August, we took our first stab at projection a starting lineup and rotation. While we nailed the back court, we had one glaring omission in the front court.

On the guard duo of Tre Donaldson and Rubin Jones:

[…] It would make sense for Donaldson and Jones to both start. Donaldson proved to be a valuable shot-creator at Auburn, and Jones brings tons of experience and excellent on-ball defense. Jones is the type of experienced guard every team could use, so he seems like one of the locks to start looking at this roster on paper.

On Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin sharing the floor:

May and Michigan’s assistants did hint Goldin and Wolf could share the floor for stretches, but that pairing both being in the starting lineup seems unlikely. With Goldin as the starting center, I could see Wolf serving as the backup center who can earn more minutes if he makes his shots. In the second unit, he also has more of a chance to be a lead creator, which is a good thing for his long-term growth.

I’ll give us half points for complimenting Wolf’s chance at being a lead creator, but he was far from a backup center. Not only did Wolf start every game, he became Michigan’s best player rather quickly.

Next, let’s look at our starting lineup projection from October. While we still had the back court mostly correct, we still vastly underrated Area 50-1. The idea of a 7-footer pick-and-roll hadn’t appeared in anyone’s minds yet.

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Fast forward to mid-January with 13 games left, when we took a game-by-game approach to projecting the remainder of the season:

  • At Purdue: Projected loss, Actual loss
  • Vs. Penn State: Projected win, Actual win
  • At Rutgers: Projected win, Actual win
  • Vs. Oregon: Projected win, Actual win
  • At Indiana: Projected win, Actual win
  • Vs. Purdue: Projected win, Actual win
  • At Ohio State: Projected loss, Actual win
  • Vs. Michigan State: Projected win, Actual loss
  • At Nebraska: Projected loss, Actual win
  • Vs. Rutgers: Projected win, Actual win
  • Vs. Illinois: Projected loss, Actual loss
  • Vs. Maryland: Projected win, Actual loss
  • At Michigan State: Projected loss, Actual loss

Final Record: Projected 22-9 (14-6 in conference), Actual 22-9 (14-6)

Our midseason projection absolutely nailed Michigan’s final record. However, how the Wolverines got there went a little bit unexpected. We correctly predicted the result of nine of the 13 games. In two games, we projected a loss when Michigan ended up winning (at Ohio State, at Nebraska). Vice versa, twice we projected a Michigan win when the Wolverines came up short (vs. Michigan State, vs. Maryland).

Lastly, we turned to KenPom in mid-February to make one final prediction on how Michigan’s post-season would play out. We looked at historical teams that KenPom gave Michigan a similar resume to. While Michigan ended up being seeded significantly lower than most of the similar teams, we hit the post-season ceiling on the money:

March Madness is great because of the chaos, and there is certainly plenty of that to be had. But based on the historical metrics of where teams similar to Michigan’s current KenPom ratings, it appears the ceiling this year is a Sweet 16 run, while an exit before winning a game is also in the cards. Anything beyond that on either side of the spectrum would be a bit of a surprise.

All in all, I don’t think we did too bad for predicting an entirely new roster in a newly expanded conference.



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What we’re hearing in Michigan football coach search: News, rumors

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What we’re hearing in Michigan football coach search: News, rumors


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With the firing of Sherrone Moore on Wednesday, Dec. 10, Michigan football is on the hunt for a new head coach.

It’s extremely late in the hiring cycle, with nearly every Power Four squad with an opening already having made a hire. But the Wolverines’ maize-and-blue brand could be strong enough to restart the coaching carousel, with several established coaches considered potential candidates for the U-M job.

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It’ll be athletic director Warde Manuel’s call on the hire (with the usual inputs from donors and regents), despite rumors swirling on social media of his firing.

Here’s the latest on the Michigan football coaching search:

A former Notre Dame QB as Michigan football’s next head coach?

It’s possible.

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Michigan football is reportedly interested in talking to Rees, according to Cleveland.com, who starred as a quarterback at Notre Dame. He moved up the coaching ranks fast, getting his big break as offensive coordinator with Notre Dame in 2020, where he served in the role for three years before moving to Alabama to be the offensive coordinator for the Crimson Tide in Nick Saban’s last year. He has spent the last two years with the Browns, first as a passing game specialist and then as offensive coordinator this year.

Rees also reportedly talked to Penn State before the Nittany Lions landed on Iowa State coach Matt Campbell.

It’s an interesting proposition, as Rees is seen as an up-and-coming young coach, but it can be wonky trying to hire NFL coaches into the college game due to the schedule. But in this circumstance, it just might work. The Browns are out of playoff contention so their season should drag out, and Michigan is in a position to wait longer than normal because early signing day for recruits is over and the transfer portal won’t open until January.

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It’s early.

Michigan still has time to make a case.

But according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, there’s “no indication” that Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, one of the hottest names in connection to the Wolverines, has an interest in taking the job in Ann Arbor.

DeBoer, who has Alabama in the 12-team College Football Playoff, was also briefly connected to Penn State earlier this offseason and quickly shot that down.

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But never say never in college football in 2025.

If Michigan is looking to swing big for its third head coach in four seasons (or seventh, if you count the interims who served during Moore’s and Jim Harbaugh’s suspensions), the Free Press’ Tony Garcia broke down four big names, including a couple with established ties to Ann Arbor, one who couldn’t quite beat the Wolverines and another who’s the darling of the college football world.

Check out that list of candidates here.



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Bullough’s back: Ex-linebacker to be Michigan State co-defensive coordinator

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Bullough’s back: Ex-linebacker to be Michigan State co-defensive coordinator


A fan-favorite Spartan is coming back as an assistant coach.Max Bullough, a former MSU linebacker who has spent the past two seasons coaching linebackers at Notre Dame, is coming back to East Lansing to be a co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach, Bullough confirmed in a biography change on X (formerly Twitter).

The move is a promotion for Bullough, who was a linebackers coach at Notre Dame the past two seasons. Bullough will serve alongside incumbent MSU defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who The Detroit News confirmed last week is staying on Pat Fitzgerald’s first staff in East Lansing. Fitzgerald replaced Jonathan Smith, who went 5-19, 4-14 Big Ten in two seasons.Bullough, 33, played for Michigan State from 2010 to 2013, under head coach Mark Dantonio and defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi. He played immediately as a freshman and appeared in 53 college games, logging 284 tackles, eight sacks and three interceptions.

He missed his final game — the 100th Rose Bowl against Stanford in 2013 — because of an unspecified violation of team rules. He never spoke publicly on the issue, though he was asked at the NFL Combine.Michigan State went 42-12 in Bullough’s four seasons with the Spartans, and 25-7 in Big Ten play, including the conference title in 2010 and 2013.After a brief NFL career with the Houston Texans and, in 2018, a stint on the Cleveland Browns’ practice squad, Bullough got into coaching. He served as grad assistant for Cincinnati in 2019 under Luke Fickell, Alabama from 2020 to 2022 under Nick Saban (winning the College Football Playoff in his first year) and Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman in 2023. Freeman kept Bullough on as his linebackers coach last year, a season in which the Irish made it to the national championship game before losing to Ohio State.

Earlier this season, Bullough went viral in August for a video of him describing his detail-oriented approach during fall camp, citing knee bend and square tackling “when the s—‘s hard.”

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Notre Dame finished the season 10-2, on a 10-game win streak, when it was left just outside the College Football Playoff bracket. Freeman and his team opted out of a bowl game, after terse words on the snub from AD Pete Bevacqua.Bullough coached a number of NFL draft picks in his career, including Dallas Turner (Minnesota Vikings), Christian Harris (Houston Texans), Henry To’oTo’o (Houston), Drew Sanders (Denver Broncos) and Jack Kiser (Jacksonville Jaguars).

Bullough won’t be the first in his family to coach at Michigan State. His grandfather, Hank, was an MSU guard and linebacker who won a national championship in 1952. Hank was also a well-regarded assistant coach on Duffy Daugherty’s staff from 1959 to 1969, including the national title teams in 1965 and 1966. He then went onto a pro coaching career that included stops with seven teams, including a head coaching tenure with the Buffalo Bills from 1985 to 1986.

After a year as the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator in 1993, he finished his coaching career with a homecoming to Michigan State, where he was an assistant on George Perles’ final team. He died in 2019.

cearegood@detroitnews.com

@ConnorEaregood

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Greg McElroy reveals two coaches for Michigan search if Kalen DeBoer turns down job

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Greg McElroy reveals two coaches for Michigan search if Kalen DeBoer turns down job


With what transpired yesterday regarding Sherrone Moore, the latest opening on the coaching carousel now belongs to Michigan. Now, several names once thought to no longer be candidates elsewhere could be again with this availability as of yesterday in Ann Arbor.

Greg McElroy also discussed possible names who could be hires for the Wolverines in appearing on ‘SportsCenter’ on Thursday morning. That began with him addressing the candidacy of Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, whose name has reportedly come up to an extent this cycle, but certainly so after yesterday in this search specifically, depending on how he may feel about his future with the Crimson Tide.

“I’d start with Kalen DeBoer,” McElroy said. “You gotta wonder, though, is Kalen DeBoer really interested, and what do the optics look like? Kalen DeBoer is the ultimate competitor. Would he leave Alabama? It would look like he was running? I don’t know if he’s truly going to consider it, but it is Michigan. It’s a great job, and you have to listen to what they’re proposing.”

Through two seasons in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer is 19-7 (.731), including being 10-3 this season in making the SEC Championship and returning the Crimson Tide to the College Football Playoff. That’s not to mention all the successes he has had elsewhere coaching in college, namely as a head coach at Sioux Falls, Fresno State, and Washington, in which he led the Huskies all the way to an appearance in the national title game against, ironically, Michigan. However, despite some of his successes at ‘Bama, DeBoer did have his name come up to some point in rumors during the search at Penn State, and is seeing it come up even further now in this new one at Michigan.

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From there, McElroy named three other possible candidates for the maize & blue. He first said two other college options in Louisville’s Jeff Brohm, who’s 27-12 (.692) the past three seasons with the Cardinals, and Washington’s Jedd Fisch, who’s 14-11 (.560) the past two seasons with the Huskies while also having ties to the program having spent two years on the offensive staff for the Wolverines. He then also named another option with connections to the program in Jesse Minter, who was their defensive coordinator for two seasons under Jim Harbaugh and is still with him now with the Los Angeles Chargers, but with McElroy noting that it may be time for Michigan to move on from those involved in or connected to their past two tenures.

“Ultimately, I think this will come down to either Jeff Brohm at Louisville or Jedd Fisch at Washington. I think those are probably the two best candidates,” said McElroy. “They have an elite quarterback in Bryce Underwood. They want someone that has a history of developing that position. Both Jedd Fisch and, if you look at what Jeff Brohm’s done in (his) career? They’ve done a great job.”

“And Jesse Minter is the other name to keep an eye on, the defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers,” McElroy added. “But, like what Paul (Finebaum) just said, I think distancing themselves from the Harbaugh era? That’s what many Michigan people want at this point, given some of the hurdles that they’ve had the last two years in the court of public opinion.”

We’re less than day since this job even came open, although, based on the details, it may have been trending this way for some time, at Michigan. That leaves a lot to still unfold, including more major names like some of these ones, who could become targets in the coming time for the Wolverines.



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