How Michigan, final 12 contenders fit into College Football Playoff hierarchy (all possible scenarios)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Michigan is amongst a dozen groups that also have lifelike Faculty Soccer Playoff hopes, and after a weekend of upsets and widespread chaos, a clearer hierarchy throughout the playoff race is beginning to take form.

READ: Why new Faculty Soccer Playoff rankings nonetheless don’t look good for Michigan-Ohio State loser

Two groups misplaced for the second time and dropped out of playoff competition Saturday: Alabama and Illinois. However there was an surprising complication: LSU immediately has a heartbeat.

So whereas the sphere dropped from 19 to 13 final week, this week, it was solely trimmed down by one.

Listed here are the remaining contenders:

• ACC: Clemson, North Carolina

• Huge 12: TCU

• Huge Ten: Michigan, Ohio State

• Pac-12: Oregon, UCLA, USC

• SEC: Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee

The up to date hierarchy record primarily based on all remaining doable outcomes has additionally shrunk, since Clemson and Tennessee now not have undefeated outcomes to think about. Let’s dive in!

How this works

NOTE: In case you’ve learn the breakdowns from the final two weeks (obtainable right here and right here), you possibly can skip this part. It’s only a refresher on how this works for the newcomers.

Right here’s the way you learn this record: Begin from the highest merchandise and work your means down. If a staff finishes the season with one of many listed outcomes, then that staff will earn the highest unclaimed playoff spot. If no staff meets the precise qualification for that final result, skip it and transfer to the following.

Proceed in that method till you’ve stuffed all 4 spots.

For instance: No. 1 on this hierarchy is “undefeated SEC champion.” In different phrases, if any staff finishes this season as an undefeated SEC champ, that staff will occupy the No. 1 spot within the ultimate Faculty Soccer Playoff rankings.

The No. 2 merchandise on this record is “undefeated Huge Ten champion.” If there’s an undefeated Huge Ten champ on the finish of the 12 months, that staff would be the No. 2 total seed IF there may be additionally an undefeated SEC champ. If there isn’t an undefeated SEC champ, then that undefeated Huge Ten staff assumes the No. 1 total spot.

If there isn’t a 13-0 Huge Ten staff, you then transfer onto merchandise No. 3 on the record, and so forth.

The highest 4 outcomes on the record that really occur will decide the 4 groups that make the playoff.

So if “11-1 Michigan” is 14th on the record, so as to make the playoff, it will want three or fewer of the highest 13 doable outcomes to truly occur.

1. Undefeated SEC champion

Attainable groups: Georgia

The lone undefeated staff within the SEC has risen to No. 1 within the CFP ballot, and it’ll stay there barring a loss.

The defending champs have taken down two present top-six groups by a mixed 60 factors and have earned this prime spot, so long as they don’t slip up within the subsequent 4 weeks.

2. Undefeated Huge Ten champion

Attainable groups: Michigan, Ohio State

If Georgia does drop a sport between now and the ultimate rankings, then the most definitely staff to complete atop the rankings is the winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State.

Two video games separate us from the Nov. 26 showdown in Columbus, but when each groups maintain enterprise, it can arrange some of the impactful common season video games of the 12 months. The winner will lock up a playoff spot whereas the loser sweats for eight days.

3. One-loss SEC champion

Attainable groups: Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Tennessee doesn’t actually belong on this class as a result of Georgia must lose to each Mississippi State and Kentucky for the Volunteers to even make the SEC title sport. However it’s nonetheless mathematically doable.

If the Huge Ten champion isn’t unbeaten, any of those three groups would take the No. 1 seed with a 12-1 report. Despite the fact that Ole Miss is presently all the best way down at No. 11 within the CFP ballot, wins over Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Georgia (or Tennessee, technically), could be sufficient to propel the Rebels to a top-two seed.

4. One-loss Huge Ten champion

Attainable groups: Michigan, Ohio State

If Michigan or Ohio State lose within the subsequent two weeks, a win in The Recreation and a Huge Ten championship could be greater than sufficient to make up for it and earn the No. 2 seed.

Sure, I feel this staff would even get slight precedence over an undefeated TCU, primarily based on the best way the Huge 12 has performed out. However it’s shut.

5. Undefeated Huge 12 champion

Attainable groups: TCU

Final week, I put undefeated TCU forward of one-loss Huge Ten champion on this record. I nonetheless assume the Horned Frogs are assured a spot in the event that they end unbeaten, however it will probably be No. 3.

Apart from TCU, each single staff within the Huge 12 has at the very least three losses. It’s the deepest league within the nation, however that parity has penalties within the rankings.

Within the theoretical state of affairs the place TCU is undefeated, it will have two ranked wins at most, and probably fewer. Texas would have earned a fourth loss this week, and whoever finishes second behind TCU would get its fourth loss within the Huge 12 title sport.

However, both Michigan or Ohio State would have a top-10 win over the opposite, in addition to a win over (presently No. 14) Penn State.

This committee has proved it doesn’t actually care about losses so long as a staff has high quality wins. Notre Dame is within the prime 25 with house losses to Marshall and Stanford. LSU is No. 7 regardless of dropping by 27 factors to Tennessee and dropping a sport to three-loss Florida State.

6. One-loss loser of SEC title sport

Attainable groups: Georgia

This one’s fairly easy: If Georgia goes into the SEC Championship Recreation with a 12-0 report and loses to both LSU or Ole Miss, it can nonetheless be assured a spot within the playoff.

The wins over Tennessee and Oregon in the course of the common season would maintain Georgia ranked over each of these groups, and solely the Huge Ten champion or an undefeated TCU could be ranked forward.

7. Tennessee finishes 11-1

Seeing this down at No. 7 may alarm Tennessee followers at a look, however in actuality, it means the Volunteers are a digital playoff lock in the event that they win out.

Of the six outcomes above, not more than 4 can truly occur on the similar time. For instance, solely two of those three can occur: “undefeated SEC champion,” “one-loss SEC champion,” and “one-loss loser of SEC title sport.” These are all listed individually as a result of the ensuing CFP seed could be completely different for every, however there clearly can’t be an undefeated SEC champ and a one-loss SEC champ.

Likewise, there can’t be an undefeated Huge Ten champion and a one-loss Huge Ten champion. So, in my view, that leaves only one state of affairs during which Tennessee will get disregarded of the playoff: TCU goes undefeated, Ole Miss goes 12-1 and wins the SEC, and Georgia goes 12-1 with a loss to Ole Miss within the SEC Championship Recreation.

In that state of affairs, the Huge Ten champion would be a part of TCU, Ole Miss, and Georgia within the playoff. Tennessee would end fifth.

8. One-loss loser of Huge Ten title sport

Attainable groups: Michigan, Ohio State

If the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State sport goes into Indianapolis and loses the convention title to the West Division consultant, it ought to nonetheless be safely within the subject.

The nightmare state of affairs is that if Ole Miss wins the SEC and Georgia and Tennessee are each sitting there with one loss. Then, all three SEC groups may get the nod above a one-loss non-champ within the Huge Ten. An undefeated TCU may then bump that Huge Ten runner-up to No. 5.

9. One-loss Pac-12 champion

Attainable groups: Oregon, UCLA, USC

The Pac-12 is in nice place to place a staff within the playoff for the primary time since Washington in 2016.

No. 6 Oregon is positioned better of the three, however No. 8 USC and No. 12 UCLA will make massive strikes within the coming weeks in the event that they proceed to win.

I personally don’t see the Week 1 sport between Oregon and Georgia coming into play if the Geese win the Pac-12. It’s been three months since that 46-point beatdown, and Oregon is clearly a a lot improved staff.

10. One-loss Huge 12 champion

Attainable groups: TCU

Even when TCU slips up at Texas or Baylor the following two weeks, it can stay within the playoff image because of the Huge 12 Championship Recreation.

The Horned Frogs have a two-game lead within the convention standings with three weeks to go, so it will take a monumental collapse to not end within the prime two.

Say, theoretically, TCU finishes 12-1 with a regular-season loss to Texas or Baylor that was avenged within the SEC title sport. Whereas I feel the Pac-12 winner would nonetheless get desire, TCU could be lurking if that staff and/or Tennessee completed with two losses.

11. One-loss ACC champion

Attainable groups: Clemson, North Carolina

The committee doesn’t love North Carolina (No. 15, behind 4 groups with two losses), but it surely certain admires Clemson (No. 10 regardless of a 21-point loss to Notre Dame).

Except each the Pac-12 and Huge 12 champions have a number of losses, the ACC is the Energy 5 convention most definitely to be disregarded of the playoff this season.

12. SEC champion LSU

The outrage can be deafening if two-loss LSU will get into the playoff, but it surely’s completely doable, and anybody who thinks in any other case is in denial.

The committee is already laying the groundwork to maneuver LSU into the highest 4 if the chips fall into place. The Tigers are ranked forward of 5 one-loss Energy 5 groups, and in the event that they go on to beat Georgia, the highest staff within the nation, to win the perfect convention within the nation, the flood gates will burst open.

SEC bias is actual. Despite the fact that it’s constantly the perfect convention within the sport, the committee usually goes too far in rewarding SEC wins and dismissing SEC losses.

However that’s the fact of the state of affairs, and if LSU has crushed Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss, it can completely be in consideration.

One complication for LSU is that it might’t, beneath any circumstances, be ranked forward of a one-loss Tennessee staff due to the one-sided head-to-head consequence. Meaning if LSU will get into the playoff, it can probably be as a 3rd SEC participant, alongside the Vols and Georgia.

13. One-loss loser of Huge 12 title sport

Attainable groups: TCU

The committee’s preliminary skepticism of TCU mixed with the shortage of one other extremely ranked staff within the Huge 12 may come again to hang-out the Horned Frogs if their lone loss comes on convention championship weekend.

TCU would nonetheless be alive, however it will be relying on each the ACC and Pac-12 to supply multiple-loss champions.

It’s ironic that TCU could be in a significantly better spot dropping to Texas or Baylor within the common season and beating them on a impartial subject than vice versa, however that’s the best way committees of the previous have operated.

14. Michigan or Ohio State end 11-1

Clemson isn’t going to complete undefeated. That’s good for the Huge Ten. Alabama gained’t be within the playoff. That’s additionally good for the Huge Ten.

And but, the possibility of two Huge Ten groups making the playoff nonetheless seems very slim.

The Maryland and Illinois losses this weekend damage Michigan as a result of wins over these groups will now not be thought of overly spectacular. Meaning a loss on Nov. 26 would depart each Michigan and Ohio State with only one nice win: Penn State.

Tennessee can have a greater one-loss resume. The Pac-12 champion will probably have a greater one-loss resume. Clemson gained’t have a greater one-loss resume, however the committee will reward it for a convention title.

The Huge Ten will all the time have a number of groups within the playoff when it expands to 12. However earlier than then, it’s not prone to occur.

15. Ole Miss finishes 11-1

If Ole Miss and LSU each win out, the Rebels can be left at house on convention championship weekend due to the head-to-head loss.

Dwelling wins over Kentucky and Alabama would offer a lift to the resume, however because of a 25-point loss and 7 unhealthy groups on the schedule, it will take whole chaos for Ole Miss to make the playoff on this state of affairs.