High-end Tornado Watch issued for SW Michigan, Gusts up to 90 mph possible

A tornado watch has been issued across northern Illinois into southwest Lower Michigan and northwest Indiana. Intense severe weather is ongoing in Iowa and Illinois at 8:00 p.m. and heading east.

The Michigan counties in the tornado watch are Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo and Van Buren. The tornado watch extends to 2 a.m. here in Michigan.

There are several tornado warnings now with the severe thunderstorms just west of Michigan in northern Illinois. Our best model that has been able to forecast tornadic supercell thunderstorms a few times this summer is now forecasting a supercell storm will move into southwest Lower Michigan near midnight.

Here is that severe storm forecasting model and the radar forecast from it for late evening and overnight.

The severe situation is leaning much more toward a straightline wind event, but a few tornadoes are also possible. In the end, the more widespread threat will be significant straightline wind gusts.

The National Weather Service has used beefed up wording on the strength of the gusts saying numerous gusts between 70 mph and 90 mph are possible in the tornado watch area.

One good thing for southwest Michigan is we will be on the very tail end of the severe weather time period. The storms likely enter the southwest corner off Lake Michigan around 11 p.m give or take an hour. There is still enough instability expected then to support significant severe thunderstorms. Over the course of the few hours through 2 a.m. Tuesday the energy for damaging severe storms should wane and the storms weaken.

The National Weather Service wrote in the tornado watch that, “Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more bow echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the potential to produce swaths of significant severe gusts up to 75-90 mph and several tornadoes with embedded circulations. The storms will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan later tonight.”

Look for the severe thunderstorms to enter Michigan’s part of the tornado watch sometime between 10 p.m. and midnight. This would include Benton Harbor, Niles, Three Rivers, Kalamazoo and the rest of the very southwest corner of Michigan. Between midnight and 2 a.m. the storms should move along the I-94 corridor through Jackson, Ann Arbor and the Detroit area. During this time the storms should be weakening but still could be on the verge of severe.

If the storms are very severe when they hit your area move to the basement during the storms or go to the interior-most part of your house. Campers should not stay in your camper during these storms.

You can track the severe thunderstorms on these radars stretching from Illinois into southwest Michigan.

Keep updated with MLive here all through this round of severe weather.