It doesn’t get much better than this.

#13 Purdue and #14 Michigan State started the season as two of the favorites to win the Big Ten. Just a couple weeks ago, Michigan State looked like it might be running away with the confernece after starting conference play 9-0.

Spartans had a two game lead in the conference after January.

Since February 1st, Michigan State has lost three times, and now sits at second in the conference. When the Spartans lost both of its games on the west coast to start February, it was Purdue that rose to the top of the conference by half a game after winning 11 of 12 games dating back from December 29th.

But romance week hasn’t been kind to either team. Michigan State lost a home game to the hapless Hoosiers, and Purdue has dropped two straight games – to Michigan on the road and at home to Wisconsin.

Now, Purdue has to go into East Lansing for the team’s only matchup of the season trailing the conference by two games.

Michigan State is sitting at 11-3 in the conference while Purdue is at 11-4. Both teams now trail Michigan who leads the conference at 12-2.

Michigan State still has two games left against Michigan so it can control its own destiny with the Wolverines, if it beats Purdue on Tuesday. The loss would also knock Purdue down to five losses in the conference.

There is a chance that the Big Ten blows up over the last few weeks and five losses is the magic number for a share of the title, but with Michigan at just two losses, four losses seems like a safer number. That would mean that Wisconsin and Purdue couldn’t lose the rest of the way, Michigan State could only lose once, and Michigan can lose twice to stay at that number.

It’s Michigan’s league to lose at this point, but a win on Tuesday between the Spartans and Boilers could go a long way in who will challenge the Wolverines down the stretch.

Feb. 18 – @Michigan State

Feb. 23 – @IU

Feb. 28 – UCLA

March 4 – Rutgers

March 7 – @Illinois

For a team on a two game win streak, Purdue’s path doesn’t look any more forgiving as it finishes out its last five games. A road game at the Breslin center isn’t the recipe for avoiding a three-game losing skid. A road trip to your in-state rival isn’t the way to bounce back from a trip to the Breslin Center.

Purdue is two games behind in the Big Ten race after the loss at home to Wisconsin, its second loss in Mackey Arena after losing just once at home in the previous two seasons.

If Purdue gets back on top of the Big Ten standings to win its third straight conference title, it’ll have earned it. That starts by winning its second straight game at Michigan State after taking down the Spartans last season on a last second Zach Edey basket.

Feb. 18 – Purdue

Feb. 21 – @ Michigan

Feb. 26 – @ Maryland

March 2 – Wisconsin

March 6 – @ Iowa

March 9 – Michigan

Michigan State can win the Big Ten outright by sweeping its final six games, but with a schedule like that, Michigan State might also be blown out of contention by the end of February.

It doesn’t help that Michigan State will also have the second fewest amount of days to prep over the rest of the season in the conference. The team with the least amount? Purdue.

Both teams will have had just Sunday and Monday to prepare for this game on Tuesday night. It’s likely that the loser of this game will find itself on the wrong side of the standings for the rest of the season because of how difficult the remaining schedule is for both teams.

Jaxon Kohler had a career-night on Saturday against Illinois. He scored a career-high 23 points while knocking down 4 of 5 three-pointers. Kohler also grabbed 10 rebounds for the double-double.

Kohler is representative of a Spartans team that is both blessed and cursed by not having a go to player. Instead, the Spartans offensive attack is spread amongst its team. Ten players for the Spartans average five points or more, seven average 7 or more, and just two players average double-figures.

“He [Kohler] might get 4 against us, he might get 8 against us, he might get 18 against us,” Painter said about Kohler. “But you know you’re gonna get a big time effort from him. That’s what you know from each one of those guys.”

Without a go to player to target, Purdue’s defense will instead look to limit Michigan State’s transition looks.

“Keeping em off the glass,” Matt Painter said on Monday. “Keeping em out of transition is one of those things that’s easy to know that’s what you have to do, but hard to do.”

Michigan State’s guards are all strong and fast, making them transition nightmares, but the Spartans need to run in part because its half court offense struggles to get good looks. Even if it does get good looks, Michigan State is one of the least efficient teams from the three point line. Michigan State is shooting just 29% as a team from three.

Most concerning for Purdue might be how Michigan State does inside the arc and at the rim after Purdue’s loss at home to Wisconsin. In that game, Purdue’s perimeter defense failed to hold anyone in check. The Badgers shot well from three, 12 of 30, but inside the arc it shot 20-22. The nearly 91% mark made Purdue’s offensive effort wasted and kept Purdue out of transition.

Trey Kaufman-Renn has been having a great season all season long, but his last five games have him looking like one of the best players in the entire country.

In the last five games, Kaufman-Renn has scored at least 22 points, while shooting better than 60% from the floor.

The last time Purdue went to East Lansing, a Purdue post player by the name of Zach Edey dominated against Tom Izzo’s no doubling defensive policy.

That means Trey Kaufman-Renn should be force fed by a Purdue offense that’s relied more and more on the junior in the post and off the short roll.

“If you just have a dominating player like Zach Edey,” Matt Painter said Monday. “You can always force the issue.”

Look for Purdue to force it into Kaufman-Renn early and often after Kaufman-Renn has his career-high against Wisconsin for 30 points.