Bowl Projections: Where Michigan football sits after 2-1 start

It’s hard to believe, but we are one-quarter of the way through Michigan’s 2024 season already. The Wolverines have struggled more than most predicted in their first three games against Fresno State, Texas and Arkansas State, and it has adjusted expectations for ‘Team 145’ in terms of postseason projections.

Once considered a top contender for the new, expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, No. 18 Michigan is no longer projected to reach that postseason tournament by any of the major networks at this time. Below, we’ve compiled a list of bowl projections for the Wolverines from various publications, giving us an idea on how their season is expected to play out from here. Let’s dive in…

Kyle Bonagura: Michigan vs. Auburn (ReliaQuest Bowl — Tampa, Fla.)
Mark Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri (Citrus Bowl — Orlando, Fla.)

ESPN has dual projections from reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach, each of whom have Michigan among the top Big Ten-affiliate bowls outside of the Playoff. Schlaback projects the Wolverines in a matchup with current No. 7 Missouri in the Citrus Bowl, while Bonagura has Michigan in a showdown with Auburn in the ReliaQuest Bowl. In terms of prestige, these two bowls are considered the Big Ten’s first and second highest, respectively, outside of the Playoff in terms of pecking order.

Michigan and Missouri have split four previous meetings, each of which were played in Ann Arbor. However, the two have not met on the gridiron since 1975, a 31-7 win for the Wolverines. As for Auburn, the Wolverines have split two meetings with these Tigers. Michigan defeated Auburn (31-28) in the 2001 Citrus Bowl, while the Tigers beat the Wolverines (9-7) in the 1984 Sugar Bowl.

Projection: Michigan vs. LSU (Citrus Bowl)

Athlon is another that projects the Wolverines to grab the Big Ten’s top bowl outside of the playoff, as the publication matches up the Wolverines against current-No. 16 LSU in the Citrus Bowl. In this scenario, Michigan would face a relatively familiar opponent in head coach Brian Kelly, who spent 12 seasons at Notre Dame before bolting to the SEC. This would, however, be the first ever meeting on the gridiron between Michigan and LSU.

Projection: Michigan vs. Ole Miss (Citrus Bowl)

CBS’ projection remains unchanged from two weeks ago, as they still slot Michigan in a battle with Ole Miss in the Citrus Bowl at season’s end. Interestingly, this is the fourth different SEC opponent that the Wolverines have been projected to face in the postseason. The Wolverines and Rebels have met only once on the football field — a 35-3 win for the Wolverines in the Gator Bowl back in 1991.

Projection: Michigan vs. Missouri (ReliaQuest Bowl)

Another SEC opponent for the Wolverines, but the ReliaQuest Bowl is considered one spot down on the Big Ten’s pecking order in terms of bowl affiliation. It’s interesting that the Tigers are projected this far down in USA Today’s list, given that Missouri is currently ranked No. 7 in the Associated Press’ Top 25 poll. The Tigers would provide a fun, yet stiff test for the Wolverines in postseason play.

Projection: Michigan vs. Oklahoma (ReliaQuest Bowl)

College football reporter Brett McMurphy projects a fifth different matchup with an SEC opponent here for the Wolverines in current No. 15 Oklahoma. This would give an early preview into a home-and-home series that is set to begin next year, with Michigan traveling to Oklahoma in 2025 and the Sooner making a return trip to Ann Arbor in 2026. Michigan and Oklahoma have squared off just once in their storied histories, a 14-6 victory for the Sooners in the 1976 Orange Bowl.

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