Big Ten Championship preview: Will the Iowa under streak stop against Michigan?

For the second time in three years, the Michigan Wolverines and the Iowa Hawkeyes will meet in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Wolverines (12-0), are currently second in the College Football Playoff rankings; they are looking for their third consecutive Big Ten title and trip to the playoff.

Iowa (10-2) won the Big Ten West division for the third time since 2015 and the Hawkeyes are looking for their first outright Big Ten title since 1985 (they won a share of the Big Ten title in 1990, 2002 and 2004). The No. 16-ranked team in the country has never won the Big Ten Championship Game.

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Two years ago Michigan beat Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten final and the Wolverines have won three straight over the Hawkeyes. They hold the series edge 44-15-3. 

Last week, Michigan knocked off Ohio State 30-24 in a battle of unbeatens. The Wolverines never trailed in the game and they made timely plays to keep the Buckeyes at arm’s length. Blake Corum rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns while J.J. McCarthy threw a 22-yard touchdown to Roman Wilson. The defense forced Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord into two interceptions.

Iowa beat Nebraska 13-10 to keep the Cornhuskers from reaching bowl eligibility. It was a game with little offense and key turnovers. Deacon Hill scored a rushing touchdown for the Hawkeyes and linebacker Ethan Hurkett had an interception with a minute remaining in regulation to help set up a 38-yard field goal from Marshall Meeder as time expired.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is favoring the Wolverines by more than three touchdowns with an over/under of 35.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines

Time/TV: 7 p.m CT (Fox)

Spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Michigan -21.5

Over/Under: 35

Moneyline: Michigan -3500, Iowa +1350

Analysis: How bad is Iowa’s offense? It’s 120th in scoring offense (18 points per game) and 133rd in total offense with 247.3 yards per game. For context, there are only 133 teams in FBS college football.

The Hawkeyes’ ability to win 10 games with very minimal production from one side of the ball is worth respect. Iowa was 5-1 in one-score games and 6-2 in games it scored 20 points or less.

The bottom line is Iowa doesn’t score much. Michigan doesn’t give up many points either.

The Wolverines had the No. 1 scoring defense in the country this year and they were second in total defense, behind only Penn State. Penn State beat Iowa 31-0 this season, so expect much of the same Saturday. Take Michigan and the points, keep an eye on the under as well.

Prediction: Michigan 28, Iowa 3 (Under 35)