Michigan
Betting the Big Ten: Week 13 is for all the marbles
The winning train kept rolling in Week 12. We took four unders this past week, and three of the four ended up hitting, with only the Michigan-Maryland matchup going over. Elsewhere, Penn State bounced back and covered by a half point, while Nebraska choked away a lead to Wisconsin.
After going 6-1 in Week 11, we followed it up with a 5-2 week in Week 12. I hope you’ve been following along because we are scorching hot!
All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Iowa at Nebraska (-1), O/U 26.5, Noon Friday
Nebraska desperately needs to win this game in order to be bowl eligible. Iowa, on the other hand, has the Big Ten West locked up already and is simply playing for a better bowl game. As late as Sunday night, Iowa was favored in this game, but it has now crossed the bridge to a Nebraska lean. At home in desperation mode, I’m going to go with the Cornhuskers.
The pick: Nebraska -1
Penn State (-21) vs. Michigan State at Ford Field, O/U 43.5, 7:30 p.m. Friday
Why Michigan State chose to give up its senior day to a neutral site game will never make sense to me. Sure Ford Field is indoors in late November. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Penn State fans in attendance than Michigan State fans. On the field, Penn State continues to be a sparkling 8-3 against the spread while Michigan State is a ho-hum 4-5-1. As a favorite, Penn State is 8-1 at covering while Michigan State is 2-5-1 as an underdog. That’s a pretty strong trend. I wish this spread was 20.5 but I’ll suffer through and lay all 21.
The pick: Penn State -21
Ohio State at Michigan (-3.5), O/U 46.5, Noon Saturday
Vegas is telling me all I need to know about this matchup. When lines were first being released a week or two ago, it opened at around Michigan -5. Since then Jim Harbaugh has been suspended and is unable to be on the sidelines, Michigan linebackers coach Chris Partridge has been fired, the Wolverines nearly lost an ugly trap game against Maryland, both Michigan’s starting and backup left tackles have missed time with injuries, and — according to The Action Network — 82 percent of the public money is on Ohio State. All of these factors should have pushed this line towards Ohio State tremendously. The line has moved by 1.5 points. Vegas knows something. Michigan is winning this game.
The pick: Michigan -3.5
Indiana at Purdue (-2.5), O/U 50, Noon
The stakes are very low in the 2023 iteration of this rivalry, as neither team can reach a bowl game. Indiana is 5-5 ATS and had covered for three straight games prior to losing outright to Michigan State as a favorite. Purdue is 4-6 ATS and had covered against Michigan and Minnesota prior to failing to cover against Northwestern. However, the best trend I can find here is on the over/under. As an underdog, Indiana is 5-2 at hitting the over while Purdue is 3-0 as a favorite. In addition, more than 50 points have been scored in this rivalry in four of the past five years. Give me the over.
The pick: Over 50
Northwestern at Illinois (-6), O/U 47, 3:30 p.m.
Northwestern has quietly been the underdog story of the Big Ten this year. At 6-5 the Wildcats are already bowl eligible, while Illinois (5-6) needs this one to get there. Both teams are middling at hitting the over as Northwestern is 5-5 and Illinois is 5-5-1. However, against the spread Illinois has been very bad, sitting at 3-8 and 0-6 at home. Northwestern on the other hand is 6-4 ATS. I’ll take the Cats.
The pick: Northwestern +6
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota, O/U 42, 3:30 p.m.
Minnesota is another team that desperately needs a rivalry game win in order to gain bowl eligibility at 5-6 on the season. The Badgers gained bowl eligibility thanks to their ugly win at home on senior night against Nebraska. Neither team is great ATS as Wisconsin is 4-6-1 and Minnesota is 3-7. Similarly, there aren’t any great trends in overs or unders for these two teams. To me, a healthy Tanner Mordecai makes the difference here. I’ll take the Badgers in this one but I don’t feel great about it compared to the rest of the matchups on the board this week.
The pick: Wisconsin -2.5
Maryland (-1) at Rutgers, O/U 43.5, 3:30 p.m.
Sitting at 6-5, both of these teams are already bowl eligible. To me this game is essentially a pick ‘em. Maryland is 5-6 ATS while Rutgers is 6-4-1. On the total, Maryland is 6-5 while Rutgers is 5-6. Those are hardly trends that I’m willing to bet on. In this game I’m looking at the history between these two programs as they’ve played each other every year since they joined the Big Ten. In the past five years, Maryland has won four of five. More notably, the Terrapins have scored 34 or more points in each of those four wins (the only loss was a 27-24 Rutgers win in 2020). This points me to the over as the Terps can clearly score on the Scarlet Knights.