ATLANTA — As the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, Auburn is, not surprisingly, a minus-4.5-point favorite against Michigan State in their Elite Eight matchup Sunday, according to ESPN BET.
But Auburn coach Bruce Pearl doesn’t believe the odds tell the true story of the game, suggesting Michigan State and its historically successful program should be the real favorite.
“Most of our guys are guys that were mid-majors or junior college or Division II,” Pearl said Saturday. “I’m not going to let Michigan State play the underdog card even though we’re a No. 1 seed and they’re a No. 2 seed. No, they’re Michigan State. They’re Kansas. They’re Duke. They’re North Carolina and we’re Auburn.
“We know our place. We know what we’re trying to go up against, and we know the uphill battle that it is when you play against a Hall of Fame coach and, obviously, a legendary program.”
Pearl also cited the number of McDonald’s All-Americans on their respective rosters as a factor in his position on the Spartans. Michigan State’s Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears Jr. both played in the 2023 installment of the game, while Tahaad Pettiford is the only McDonald’s All-American on Auburn. He also noted Tom Izzo’s perfect record (10-0) against SEC teams in the NCAA tournament.
Izzo, however, doesn’t seem to agree. He said he and Pearl have been friends for years but he never gets caught up in the odds because anything can happen to a team, regardless of its seeding.
“I’ve been through so many of these, I’ve been a 2-seed that’s been beaten by a 15-seed,” Izzo said. “I’ve been a 1-seed that hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend, so I don’t buy any of that stuff, but if it makes them feel better, I’ll be the favorite. I’m cool with that. Whatever they want me to be, I’ll be.”
This season, Pearl’s team was ranked No. 1 for nearly three months after a 90-day stretch that featured just one loss. Pearl earned SEC coach of the year honors, Johni Broome was named SEC player of the year and three other Auburn players were honored by the league, too.
For Michigan State, Jase Richardson has matured into a projected lottery pick in ESPN’s latest 2025 NBA mock draft, but the Spartans did not have a player on the all-Big Ten first or second teams this season.
Still, Izzo said his focus is not on any comparison between the two programs because his team matters most at this stage.
“The game will be won by the players, not the bettors, not the media, not even the coaches,” Izzo added. “The game will be won by the players who play the game.”
Pearl and Izzo have history against one another.
Pearl cited his recent wins over Big Ten teams as the result of the collective edge in “athleticism” the SEC has had over the Big Ten in recent years. But the last time he faced Izzo in the Elite Eight, he left with a loss. He said he still blames himself for Tennessee’s 70-69 loss to Michigan State in 2010 because of the way he handled the final seconds of the game. On Sunday, he said he’ll have the same concerns he had about Michigan State 15 years ago.
“They’ve always been as athletic as anybody in the backcourt,” Pearl said. “Michigan State has elite athletes in the backcourt. Therefore, like my athletes, they guard. They can score in multiple ways. Then, his front lines are always big, strong, physical. They play really hard.”
Izzo didn’t recall every detail from that 2010 Elite Eight game against Tennessee that capped his 5-seed Michigan State team’s run to the Final Four that year. He said he’s only focused on his current group, which will have its hands full against Auburn, one of the most experienced teams in the field.
“In fact, [Pearl’s] team is very mature,” Izzo said. “I won’t say old. I prefer that people call me mature instead of old, so I’ll do the same thing for their 23- and 24-year-olds.”
