Bill Self and No. 4 Kansas open up the March Madness slate against No. 13 California Baptist in East Region play.

The Jayhawks are looking to shake off a 22-point blowout loss to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals, while Cal Baptist takes a ride down I-5 South to San Diego, having won six straight games.

Kansas is a 13.5-point favorite, with the Over/Under set at 138.5 total points, per BetMGM Sportsbook.

With No. 12-seed High Point emphatically beating No. 5 Wisconsin, followed by No. 11-seed VCU’s stunning overtime victory against No. 6-seed UNC on Thursday, the underdogs have injected nervousness into the bracket, validating the belief that any team can win.

Could we see another shocker in this No. 13 vs. No. 4 matchup?

California Baptist vs. Kansas prediction, best bet.

Darryn Peterson’s inconsistent ability to play a full 40 minutes has been the defining narrative of Kansas’ season. 

Despite cramping or persistent injuries for the NBA prospect, Kansas managed a 10-2 record without him in the lineup.

His ability to score at all three levels complements the Jayhawks’ top-10 defensive efficiency when he’s on the floor. However, poor shooting nights—such as his 3-of-18 performance at Arizona State—can lead to nightmarish losses for his team.

Melvin Council Jr.’s performance at point guard will be crucial following a poor showing in the Big 12 tournament, where he shot 4-of-26 in two games.

He remains the team’s assist leader, averaging 5.1 per game.

With Flory Bidunga dominating the paint with almost 2.5 blocks per game, Kansas is positioned to potentially seize control later in the contest.

Cal Baptist brings a strong team rebounding approach as well, leading the Western Athletic Conference with 39.9 boards per outing.

Sure, the WAC is not a household name in basketball, but make no mistake, the Lancers’ 25-8 overall record earned them their first-ever bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Cal Baptist, like Kansas, also boasts a clear primary offensive threat in 5-foot-10 Dominique Daniels Jr. 

Daniels Jr. is a potent scorer, averaging 23.2 points per game, the fifth-most in Division I, and his perimeter prowess could create difficulties for Kansas, which has struggled to defend the arc.

While the Jayhawks’ recent 4-5 record over their last nine games is concerning, Cal Baptist presents multiple challenges.

Unlike many other high seeds, the Lancers have faced and lost to three Big 12 teams the Jayhawks are familiar with in BYU (a blowout loss), along with relatively close defeats to Colorado and Utah. 

Betting on College Basketball?

Adding to the difficulty is the Lancers’ near-top-50 defense, which ranks 51st in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, and near home-court advantage, as this game is about two hours from their campus.

Given these factors, the best betting strategy is a play on the first half, as the game is likely to be much closer than expected heading into halftime.

I’m picking Cal Baptist to cover the first half spread because of the Jayhawks’ tendency to get off to slow starts and their mediocre 5-6 road record away from the Phog this season.

The PLAY: California Baptist +8 first-half spread (-115, bet365 Sportsbook)

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Over the final few games of the regular season, Kansas head coach Bill Self encountered some unexpected issues with his lineup. Along with a lack of bench production, Jayhawks power forward Bryson Tiller and Self reached somewhat of an impasse, as the redshirt freshman has been playing his worst basketball of the season.

The Jayhawks experimented with some lineup changes in the Big 12 Tournament, though they were ultimately eliminated in the semifinals by Houston, where Tiller did not play a minute in the second half. Self has some big decisions to make regarding his rotation ahead of the tournament.

Is it time for a starting lineup change to replace the struggling Tiller, or should KU stick with its group? Here’s how the rotation should shake out in March.

Starting Five Stays the Same Despite Rocky Stretch

G Melvin Council Jr.
G Darryn Peterson
G Tre White
F Bryson Tiller
C Flory Bidunga

There is no doubt that Tiller needs to be better moving forward, as he has averaged just 5.1 points and 5.4 rebounds on 36.1% shooting over his past seven games. But is changing the starting lineup right as postseason play begins really the answer?

KU has thrived with the double-big lineup at times, as it helps compensate for Flory Bidunga’s lack of height down low. It improves the team on the boards and provides more of an interior presence defensively.

Small-ball lineups with Tre White at the four have had some success, but not enough to justify a full-time shift. Adding another guard to space the floor doesn’t solve much when there is only one or two consistent 3-point threats on most nights.

Tiller has still shown enough this season to warrant a start, at least in the first-round matchup. If Self decides to open a second half with Elmarko Jackson alongside the starters, that is a different conversation to be had, but no drastic moves should be made unless the circumstances are dire.

Top Bench Options: Elmarko Jackson, Jamari McDowell and… Kohl Rosario?

The bench is where things get tricky. KU’s second unit ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in bench points per game, highlighting just how starter-heavy this team has been.

Jackson is the clear sixth man, while McDowell has carved out a role thanks to his perimeter shooting. The question is whether Self is willing to expand the rotation to eight players in the tournament.

It might sound unconventional, but Kohl Rosario deserves a handful of meaningful minutes in the Big Dance. After beginning the season in the starting lineup, the Miami native was gradually phased out of the rotation due to shooting struggles.

Still, he brings value with his athleticism and activity on the offensive glass. In the 22-point loss to Houston — a game with few positives — Rosario was one of the lone bright spots, scoring eight points in a short stretch while knocking down both of his 3-point attempts and grabbing four rebounds.

Self has said in the past that Jayden Dawson would win the team a tournament game, but that feels increasingly difficult to believe right now. The Loyola Chicago transfer’s shooting percentage has dropped to 31.5% on the year, and he hasn’t made more than one field goal in a game since mid-November.

If Self looks to adjust the rotation just a bit, giving Rosario a chance could be a bold but necessary move. Opponents will at least respect his perimeter shot, and the defensive energy he brings could help swing the momentum of a game in KU’s favor.

WYANDOTTE COUNTY —The Kansas City, Kansas Police Department is currently investigating a fire that occurred at Wyandotte County Lake. 

Just after 5p.m. Wednesday, a witness reported hearing a loud boom and observed a white male, approximately 6-foot-1 inches tall with blond hair, wearing a long-sleeve black shirt with Saint Patrick’s-themed decorations and blue jeans, running from the area, according to a media release from Kansas City, Kansas Police. 

Shortly after, a brush fire ignited. KCKPD officers, Wyandotte County Sheriff’s Deputies, and KCK Fire Department personnel responded to the scene. Firefighters were able to quickly extinguish the fire. A small incendiary device was located at the scene. No injuries were reported.

This incident is under investigation by the KCKPD EOD unit. Anyone with information on this case is urged to call the Crime Stoppers TIPS hotline at 816-474-TIPS (8477).