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Kansas State vs. Colorado football prediction: What the analytics say

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Kansas State vs. Colorado football prediction: What the analytics say


Big 12 football returns to action this weekend as No. 18 Kansas State hits the road against Colorado in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the football model that picks winners.

Kansas State is 4-1 overall and comes off a statement win against then-ranked Oklahoma State two weeks ago and sits at No. 7 in FBS in rushing output heading into this game.

Colorado is 2-0 in Big 12 play and 4-1 overall and on a 3-game win streak thanks in large part to the nation’s 9th-best passing attack led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who is completing more than 70 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

The models project a very close game this week, with the road team getting a slight edge.

Kansas State is projected to win the game in 52.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or 10,440 of its 20,000 predictions.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner in the remaining 47.8 percent of sims.

Kansas State is projected to be just 0.9 points better than Colorado on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -175 and for Colorado at +150 to win outright.

Colorado is getting more faith from bettors in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

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A slight majority of bets — 55 percent — project the Buffaloes will either beat the Wildcats in an upset or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Kansas State will beat Colorado and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score forecasts a slight victory for the Wildcats against the Buffaloes.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Kansas State will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 30 to 27.

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 16.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, and will win 8.5 games, according to the FPI metrics.

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That model gives Colorado a win total projection of 8.1 games and a 12.3 percent shot at the playoff.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

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1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Deadly 4-car crash kills 2 people, injures others in Kansas City

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Deadly 4-car crash kills 2 people, injures others in Kansas City


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – A crash near a busy highway killed two people and injured two others.

Emergency crews responded to the crash at U.S. 71 Highway and Meyer Boulevard around 12:40 p.m. on Monday, March 2.

When crews arrived they determined four cars were involved in the crash.

Police are investigating how the crash happened.

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Homegrown Jayhawk stars ready to shine at Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City

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Homegrown Jayhawk stars ready to shine at Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City


LAWRENCE, Kan. (KCTV) – As Kansas women’s basketball prepares to enter the postseason at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, they’ll be led by two Overland Park natives who have been two of the most electrifying players to watch in the country this year.

Junior guard S’Mya Nichols and freshman forward Jaliya Davis have played integral roles in the recent growth of the program. Both cite the desire to help grow the Jayhawks into something special as reasons for committing there.

“Where we wanted to take Kansas women’s basketball, I wanted to be a part of that growing evolution,” Nichols told KCTV5.

“We [my family] were also really big Jayhawk fans. We came to a lot of games,” Davis said about her childhood.

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The two were both 5-star recruits in high school, and their commitments marked historic recruiting victories for the KU women’s basketball program.

First came Nichols in the Class of 2023, picking KU over Tennessee and Oklahoma.

“I genuinely wanted to go to Kansas,” she said.

Then Davis became the highest-rated player to ever commit to KU as part of the Class of 2025.

“When you go back to S’Mya Nichols being a local, Kansas City, Overland Park product, a nationally respected player, Jaliya was really the next one that was very important for the Jayhawks to keep home,” said head coach Brandon Schneider.

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Now as a junior, Nichols has established herself as one of the most consistent scorers and physical guards in the nation.

But it’s the Shawnee Mission West’s alum’s leadership that defines her legacy in Lawrence.

“The team leader, the quarterback,” Coach Schneider described Nichols. “I think oftentimes the player that everybody looks up to off the court.”

“I mean it means everything. Knowing that I’m important to the team, and that they see me as that as well,” said Nichols with a smile.

Both Nichols and Davis were recruited by the Jayhawks for years, going all the way back to seventh grade.

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“Well, we offered her in middle school,’ Coach Schneider said with a laugh about Davis.

“Oh he put in a lot of work,” laughed Davis. “I mean, obviously, seventh grade, that’s a long time.”

It was that dedication from Coach Schneider that led her to choose the Jayhawks over Texas, South Carolina, Baylor, and Oklahoma – where he dad played ball.

“I think it really was the relationship we had and grew. He was always there, every single one of my games,” Davis said about Schneider.

After just one practice as teammates, Nichols voiced a big belief about Davis into existence – and it’s probably going to come true.

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The Jayhawks are the 11-seed in the Big 12 Tournament, and will face 14-seed UCF in the first round on Wednesday at 8:00 p.m.(KCTV5)

“I saw her first practice, and I sent her a text, and I’m like ‘I think you can win Freshman of the Year’, and I still stand by that,”

Davis is averaging 21.0 points per game, and has been named the Big 12 Freshman of the Week for eight weeks in a row. That sets a power conference all-time record.

“I think it’s really cool. I mean obviously it’s a team effort, they’re always looking for me,” Davis said about her historic accomplishment.

“Just a phenomenal stretch of basketball for her, and so well deserving,” said Coach Schneider.

Now these two homegrown stars are at the forefront of a late-season push to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, CBS Sports bracketology has them as a ‘First Four Out’ team.

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But a few wins in the Big 12 Tournament could certainly help seal their invite to the big dance.

“Obviously we’re not in the position that we were hoping to be in, but I think we can make the most out of it, and get to where we want to be,” Davis said about the opportunity at hand in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.

The Overland Park kids are especially fired up about starting the postseason in their own backyard.

“I have a big support system. So I bet my family will take a big chunk of that area during that tournament,” Davis laughed.

“I remember being younger, and the College Basketball Experience is right next door. So I felt like at one moment that was the big stage, when I got to play my little AAU tournaments in there. And then all of a sudden I’m literally in T-Mobile Center on the actual big stage, so it’s pretty cool,” said Nichols.

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The Jayhawks are the 11-seed in the Big 12 Tournament, and will face 14-seed UCF in the first round on Wednesday at 8:00 p.m.



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Why Matthew Driscoll continues to say Kansas State is ‘close’

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Why Matthew Driscoll continues to say Kansas State is ‘close’


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MANHATTAN — David Castillo sank his free throw to finish off a three-point play to cut TCU’s lead to two late in the second half. Kansas State had a chance to play spoiler to a team that was on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

For the previous 36 minutes, the Wildcats were more engaged than they had been all season. You wouldn’t have recognized they were just under two weeks removed from their head coach getting fired. The Wildcats were in the middle of a competitive basketball game when there haven’t been many this season.

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And then the final four minutes happened, and the Wildcats lost once again.

Kansas State pulled within one score six different times in the second half against the Horned Frogs, only to never take a lead, and then go 4 minutes, 4 seconds without a point after Castillo’s late bucket, leading to a 77-68 loss.

K-State interim coach Matthew Driscoll compared the loss to a broken record, when the Wildcats have been close late, only to fall apart in the end.

“We get there, and then, for whatever reason, we can’t break through,” Driscoll said. “When we got it to a one-point game, I thought that this was when we were going to turn the corner. It just seems like we keep getting close, and we can’t break through that wall.”

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Kansas State (11-18, 2-14 Big 12) has been within striking distance in a handful of games this season, only to go on lengthy scoring droughts and come up short in the end.

While there are plenty of games in which the Wildcats were blown out or didn’t show half the effort they showed against the Horned Frogs, there have been enough games that if the Wildcats finished, they wouldn’t be fighting to not finish at the bottom of the Big 12 standings.

K-State’s Feb. 25 loss to Colorado is another example, having two five-plus-minute spurts in which it didn’t score a point. The Wildcats held late leads against West Virginia and Oklahoma State, and in their first game against TCU, only to choke away those leads.

“There’s a lot of frustration,” Khamari McGriff said. “It’s been a fight to continue to focus on the next right thing and let whatever has happened in the past, and just try to get to a point where we can compete for 40 minutes. We gotta look at it with the perspective that we’ve been close a lot of times, and we just gotta figure out how to take that next step.”

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Kansas State is running out of opportunities to achieve that “next step.” The Wildcats have a home game on Tuesday, March 3, against a beatable West Virginia team before closing the regular season at Kansas on March 7. After that, it would be surprising if the Wildcats get more than two games at the Big 12 Tournament.

But Driscoll hasn’t seen his team quit, which is almost all he can ask for after what has been a season to forget.

“We just haven’t completed the deal,” Driscoll said.

Wyatt D. Wheeler covers Kansas State athletics for the USA TODAY Network and Topeka Capital-Journal. You can follow him on X at @WyattWheeler_, contact him at 417-371-6987 or email him at wwheeler@usatodayco.com



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