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Kansas State vs. Colorado football prediction: What the analytics say

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Kansas State vs. Colorado football prediction: What the analytics say


Big 12 football returns to action this weekend as No. 18 Kansas State hits the road against Colorado in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from the football model that picks winners.

Kansas State is 4-1 overall and comes off a statement win against then-ranked Oklahoma State two weeks ago and sits at No. 7 in FBS in rushing output heading into this game.

Colorado is 2-0 in Big 12 play and 4-1 overall and on a 3-game win streak thanks in large part to the nation’s 9th-best passing attack led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who is completing more than 70 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

The models project a very close game this week, with the road team getting a slight edge.

Kansas State is projected to win the game in 52.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or 10,440 of its 20,000 predictions.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner in the remaining 47.8 percent of sims.

Kansas State is projected to be just 0.9 points better than Colorado on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Colorado, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -175 and for Colorado at +150 to win outright.

Colorado is getting more faith from bettors in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

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A slight majority of bets — 55 percent — project the Buffaloes will either beat the Wildcats in an upset or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 45 percent of wagers forecast that Kansas State will beat Colorado and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score forecasts a slight victory for the Wildcats against the Buffaloes.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Kansas State will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 30 to 27.

Kansas State is third among Big 12 teams with a 16.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, and will win 8.5 games, according to the FPI metrics.

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That model gives Colorado a win total projection of 8.1 games and a 12.3 percent shot at the playoff.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

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1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Kansas Orders Trans Drivers to Surrender Licenses With One Day’s Notice

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Kansas Orders Trans Drivers to Surrender Licenses With One Day’s Notice


Sign up for The Agenda, Them’s news and politics newsletter, delivered Thursdays.

The Kansas Division of Vehicles (DOV) has instructed transgender residents to surrender their updated driver’s licenses, as one of the nation’s most extreme anti-trans laws takes effect this week.

Trans Kansans received letters from the DOV on Wednesday informing them that licenses and other state ID papers that do not match a person’s assigned sex at birth are considered invalid and must be surrendered to the state effective immediately, ostensibly giving them less than 24 hours to make accommodations, according to multiple copies of the letter reviewed by the Kansas City Star.

“Please note that the Legislature did not include a grace period for updating credentials,” the letter read in part. “That means that once the law is officially enacted, your current credentials will be invalid immediately, and you may be subject to additional penalties if you are operating a vehicle without a valid credential.” Affected residents were “directed to surrender your current credential to the Kansas Division of Vehicles” and receive a new ID — at their own expense, as SB 244 did not provide state funding to cover the reversions, the Star noted.

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The move comes as a result of Kansas’ SB 244, which became law on Thursday and instructs state agencies to reverse gender marker changes on official documents. Gov. Laura Kelly vetoed the legislation, but the Republican supermajority overrode her veto last week.

Kansas officially recognizes only “male” and “female” as recorded at birth as valid sexes, per a state law passed in 2023. About 1,700 people are expected to have their licenses invalidated as a result of the new law, according to a legislative analysis of SB 244 conducted by the state House. The law will also invalidate amended birth certificates that were issued with a corrected gender marker.

The LGBTQ Foundation of Kansas shared a copy of one letter on Instagram, with identifying information redacted. Representatives for the nonprofit noted that some Kansas counties will hold special elections next week, and trans residents without valid photo ID cards will not be able to cast a vote under existing state law.

At least three other states have passed laws banning gender marker changes on driver’s licenses, but Kansas is now the only U.S. state to require such previous changes be reverted, according to KCTV.

“The persecution is the point,” said Rep. Abi Boatman, Kansas’ only trans state legislator, in a statement to the Star on Wednesday. “It tells me that Kansas Republicans are interested in being on the vanguard of the culture war and in a race to the bottom,” she added in a comment to KCTV.

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Kansas City man charged with murder in fatal shooting of reported missing teenage girl

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Kansas City man charged with murder in fatal shooting of reported missing teenage girl


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – A Kansas City man has now been charged in the death of a teenage girl who was reported missing and found dead a day later from a gunshot.

Jackson County Prosecutor Melesa Johnson announced Wednesday that Eric R. Phillips II has been charged with first-degree murder, armed criminal action and abandoning a corpse, following the girl’s November 2025 death.

Elayjah Murray had been reported missing on Nov. 28, 2025. As investigators looked into her disappearance, the Independence Police Department’s Criminal Investigation Unit learned that she’d possibly been shot.

Eric R. Phillips II has been charged with first-degree murder, armed criminal action and abandoning a corpse, following the girl’s November 2025 death.(Independence Police Department/Facebook)

Multiple witnesses and surveillance footage helped detectives identify Phillips as the shooter. Court documents say he shot Murray multiple times while she was in the back of his car during the early morning hours of Nov. 28.

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A day later, police with the Kansas City Missouri Police Department found Murray in Kansas City. Phillips’ cell phone pinged in the area where Murray’s body was located.

Phillips’ bond has been set at $350,000 cash only.

Johnson said Phillips was charged on Dec. 3, 2025, under seal. The case was unsealed Wednesday in an effort to help locate Phillips.



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Kansas marijuana debate: tax dollars vs. crime concerns

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Kansas marijuana debate: tax dollars vs. crime concerns


TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) – Kansas House Democrats on Tuesday discussed separate bills to legalize recreational and medical marijuana use, citing a recent Kansas Speaks survey showing 70% of Kansans support medical legalization and 60% support recreational use.

Supporters say the legislation would generate revenue for affordable housing, childcare and property tax relief. Opponents say legalization would worsen the state’s mental health crisis and increase crime.

What supporters say

Rep. Ford Carr, D-Wichita, said the bills would direct significant revenue back to residents.

“In this legislation, we’re gonna take those funds — which could be, you know, we’re talking about $1 billion and we’re gonna give that back to the people,” Carr said.

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Rep. Heather Meyer, D-Overland Park, said Kansans are already crossing state lines to access cannabis.

“I live right on the Kansas-Missouri border. The closest dispensary is 12 minutes away[…]We’ve got cannabis on the other side of the state line. You’ve got minivans with JoCo tags on them, Wyandotte tags on them,” Meyer said.

Rep. John Alcala, D-Topeka, said constituents have long pressed him on the issue.

“I used to receive tons of emails from parents whose children needed medical cannabis for seizures. I still receive an overwhelming amount of emails from our veterans suffering from PTSD,” Alcala said.

What opponents say

Katie Patterson, a representative for Stand Up for Kansas who spent more than 18 years with the Kansas Bureau of Investigation, said she opposes the bills and that crime has increased in states where marijuana has been legalized in some form.

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“I’ve seen firsthand how substance use, abuse and addiction impact lives, families, communities and create strains on criminal justice systems,” Patterson said.

Patterson said the FDA should serve as the standard for what qualifies as medicine.

“Medicines should be based on clinical data and robust amounts of research demonstrating medical efficacy for treatment of certain conditions,” Patterson said.

She also said increased access leads to increased use and warned of consequences for the state’s mental health system.

“We in this state have a mental health crisis. This is a policy conversation that would further exacerbate that crisis that we currently have on our hands with treatment in Kansas,” Patterson said.

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What happens next

The bills were referred to the House Federal and State Affairs Committee. No hearing has been scheduled. Supporters said they do not expect the bills to advance this session but said they intend to continue raising the issue.



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