The Pants Predicts: Iowa at Purdue

The Hawkeyes obtained issues again on observe per week in the past, however that was in opposition to jNW and solely did sufficient to maintain Iowa out of the Massive Ten West cellar. Hopes for a climb greater within the West standings depends on sustained manufacturing from the offense and that appears…. unlikely.

This week, Iowa travels to West Lafeyette for a showdown with Our Most Hated Rival, Purdue, and some acquainted faces in Tyrone Tracy, Jr. and Charlie Jones. The Boilers have received 4 of the final 5 conferences in opposition to the Hawkeyes and Vegas is asking for a lot of the identical this week. Our associates at DraftKings Sportsbook opened with this one as Purdue by a landing. That has since moved right down to Purdue -3.5 with an over/underneath that continues to slip decrease on an evolving climate forecast to underneath 40 whole factors.

At The Pants, we’re taking Purdue and the factors. On common, we’re calling for a closing rating of Purdue 22, Iowa 15. That also has us on the underneath fairly comfortably. Notably, there are two of us taking the Hawkeyes to win outright regardless of none of us taking Iowa with the factors.

Right here’s a have a look at every of our particular person predictions for tomorrow’s matchup.

JPinIC

Iowa’s offense remains to be largely misplaced. They have been in a position to set up the run for the primary time all season in opposition to Northwestern so I’d like to imagine they discovered one thing there, however extra realistically I anticipate Purdue to stack the field and power Petras to beat them, particularly figuring out the forecast for robust winds and rain. He can’t and I anticipate the offense to be fortunate to get greater than a landing this week.

On the opposite aspect of the ball, Phil is cussed to a fault and received’t bracket Jones. I anticipate him to get the David Bel therapy and are available away with 100+ yards and a pair of+ scores on his personal, largely on beneath dink and dunk stuff the place he breaks one sort out and strikes the sticks. Being a Hawkeye fan is just not very a lot enjoyable proper now.

Prediction: Purdue 24, Iowa 13

SirNicholas33

As you’ll see in my climate/Vegas replace coming later at present, the climate for this weekend appears to be like abhorrent. Good temps, however rain and (extra importantly) wind. That ought to gradual Purdue down, however the climate will additional neutralize Iowa’s poopy offense. Purdue has main damage points within the secondary, however with massive wind gusts anticipated in East Berlin West Lafayette, Iowa’s cross sport that briefly confirmed a pulse final week might be unable to make the most of that.

So will probably be on the run sport to determine it out (for each groups) and I’m nonetheless doubtful. I imply, that’s good that the offense had a short, one-game proof of life second in opposition to Northwestern. I’m glad! It’s at all times a great day when Iowa wins! They may have a greater method on the offensive line and the working backs look good, however that Northwestern workforce stinks and Pat Fitzgerald needs to be on the recent seat with how poorly the final two years have gone – they haven’t received on the North American continent in over a 12 months and I’d anticipate that streak to run into subsequent season.

So I’m not falling for this transient dalliance into competence from Iowa’s offense. Ultimately, Iowa most likely wants 21 factors to win and in these circumstances, they’ll’t do it. This comes right down to Purdue having Iowa’s quantity, and I feel they edge Iowa in the long run as soon as once more.

Prediction: Purdue 21, Iowa 17

Bartt Pierce

It’s good that Michigan and Ohio State are in our rearview mirror. The Hawks are actually to the portion of their schedule the place they’ll beat any workforce they play, even with our anemic offense. Sadly I don’t have a lot religion. I nonetheless really feel like we have to rating a defensive landing so as to pull off a win. With the current unhealthy blood within the Purdue/Hawkeye rivalry I hope our boys can go into West Lafayette and are available away victorious. Phil Parker is a dang magician; I hope he has a solution for Charlie Jones as a result of that David Bell fellow performed us like a online game cheat code. Kirk and Brian higher have one thing deliberate or a lot of our offense might be getting pace dialed this offseason by Jeff Brohm.

Prediction: Purdue 24, Iowa 13

GingerHawk

Many Hawk followers could not admit it, however Purdue might be one of many groups they wished to beat probably the most this 12 months. A sport that for a lot of the twenty first century was a dependable victory has turned on its head in recent times, with the Brohm Squad taking 4 of the final 5 video games.

Final week’s offensive displaying in opposition to Northwestern was good, however till Iowa reveals that it wasn’t a one-hit surprise I’m not getting my hopes up. Northwestern’s protection is notoriously terrible, and Purdue’s isn’t the best both, so the chance for Iowa is there. With the forecast in West Lafayette trying soggy the Hawkeyes should get the bottom sport going and Petras should play like he did final week to remain in it.

With Purdue’s penchant for locating the tender spot in Iowa’s D and attacking it again and again, Phil Parker might want to discover a method to counter, one thing that’s been simpler stated than achieved recently. Ideally the climate will assist mitigate the risk, however the protection has to make the performs they couldn’t final 12 months. I imagine they’ll, however I’m unsure they may.

Prediction: Purdue 23, Iowa 14

mattcabel

I don’t suppose this workforce has it in them to beat anybody with any sort of expertise. I simply don’t. Are we due for a win in opposition to Brohm? Completely is it a positive factor? No. Positive, the Boilers may have some damage issues however…until the protection can rating plenty of factors, I simply don’t suppose the offense can get the job achieved on the street.

Truthfully? I actually hope Charlie Jones goes off.

Purdue 24, Iowa 10

BizarroMax

I’ve been on compelled hiatus for just a few weeks right here because of a mix of things, amongst them being spending three weeks on the street in October, and working right into a mysterious bug in my opponent-adjustment algorithm that prompted it to spiral uncontrolled. Seems, it’s not likely a bug, it was a configuration error. I had set the tolerance so tightly that this system didn’t know to cease adjusting when it reached what we’d name an area minimal in calculus. So I fastened that.

With that achieved, we’re 8 video games into the season and I lastly have good opponent-adjusted information on Iowa. And I’ve excellent news: it’s nonetheless unhealthy, nevertheless it’s not as unhealthy because it appears to be like. Iowa’s opponent-adjusted offense is about pretty much as good as Iowa’s uncooked offense was final 12 months. That’s nonetheless actually unhealthy, nevertheless it may be juuuuuuust adequate.

My theme this 12 months is reversing developments. I stated Iowa State would win and so they did. I didn’t QUITE name the Illinois win, however I steered that it was lurking within the shadows. And opposite to many, I picked Iowa to beat Northwestern pre-season. I additionally picked Iowa to beat Purdue pre-season, and, with the algorithm again on its toes, the machine agrees.

BizarroMath is asking this can be a 24-21 Iowa victory, so my confidence is being bolstered by the field. However I’m calling for EVEN MOAR POINTS, because the machine has tended to under-estimate factors by about 15% this 12 months.

Prediction: Iowa 28, Purdue 24.

Kicker32

All the season I’ve been the glad, go fortunate idiot making an attempt to unfold positivity with my picks. That hasn’t precisely panned out properly this far however let’s strive it once more.
I imagine the climate may have an amazing affect on the result of this sport. If it rains as onerous because it’s suppose to, and the wind is whipping via Ross Ade Stadium, this sport might be a slog. It additionally means boilerhawk and I might be depressing as we’re each going to be in attendance. Dangerous climate closely favors the Hawkeyes in my thoughts. If the weather preserve Purdue from stretching the sector vertically in opposition to Phil and the protection, the sport will in essence be performed inside a 20 yard field. I’ll put my religion on this Iowa protection to feast if that’s the case. Even Purdue’s new discovered working sport ought to have a tricky time and not using a passing assault to protect it.

On the flip aspect, Iowa’s offense might be taking part in in the identical muck. That doesn’t bode properly for a unit who has regarded horrible in one of the best of circumstances. The saving grace right here is that I feel Iowa battens down the hatches and performs the kind of boring, protected soccer that’s wanted to win in these circumstances. For that reason, I see Iowa minimizing turnovers whereas on the flip aspect, I don’t imagine Purdue is affected person sufficient to play that type of sport resulting in a number of turnovers together with just a few that give Iowa brief fields.

If the weather don’t grow to be unhealthy, simply disregard all the above and Hope David Bell doesn’t go for 200+. Sure I do know he’s not at Purdue however the PTSD remains to be robust.

Prediction: Iowa 20, Purdue 17

tnels20

It’s becoming that Iowa’s gross offense might be taking part in on an equally gross climate day. I do suppose the modifications on the OL have been a constructive, and offers the offense a barely higher probability of defending Petras and letting him get his toes set to ship. The problem this week is you realize he’s going to be second guessing footing, grip, and many others. That’s not a great recipe for this offense.

With moist circumstances I’m guessing we see Purdue push the ball downfield utilizing some double strikes and hoping to attract just a few massive cross interference penalties on a day the place conventional downfield passing is harder. It seems like yearly we go into this sport pondering Purdue is lacking somebody actually necessary, however in the long run it doesn’t matter. David Bell isn’t there to rescue their offense this time, however Charlie Jones is.

Prediction: Purdue 20, Iowa 16

In order that’s how we see issues taking part in out. How about you, Hawkeye followers? Let’s hear these predictions for Saturday’s showdown!