As Iowa’s 2023 college football season approaches, the final batch of predictions are surfacing. Ahead of Big Ten media days, the league’s media released its predicted order of finish.
The Iowa Hawkeyes were chosen to finish second in the West behind the Wisconsin Badgers. It was as close as it could possibly get, though. The Badgers finished with 233 points against the Hawkeyes’ 232 points.
Of the 37 potential first-place votes in the West, Wisconsin collected 20 and Iowa grabbed 16. Meanwhile, Minnesota was the other West program that received a first-place vote from the media.
Meanwhile, Michigan garnered 27 first-place votes in the East to outflank Ohio State in second and Penn State in third. All 37 writers picked Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State to win the conference.
Elsewhere, The Athletic’s Austin Mock revealed his projected Big Ten win totals and conference championship odds. His college football projection model creates a projection rating for each team based on play-by-play data that adjusts for every opponent. From those ratings, Mock can then simulate every game of the season and project how many games a team will win, how often they win their conference or division, as well as how often they make the College Football Playoff and win the national title.
What do Mock and The Athletic’s numbers say about the Iowa Hawkeyes?
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Iowa’s Big Ten projections from The Athletic
Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK
Mock uses the terminology of XWINS for the average win total over the model’s simulations. Here’s what it had to say about Iowa:
- XWINS: 7.4
- Conference title percentage: 2.37%
- 6-plus wins percentage: 92.4%
What it means
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Let’s look at the good. The Athletic’s XWINS and six-plus wins percentage indicate that the model really likes the Hawkeyes to comfortably make a bowl game across its simulations. Iowa wins on average 7.4 games and crosses the six wins threshold 92.4% of the time.
On the flip side, this model isn’t giving Iowa much of a chance to go win the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes come away with just a 2.37% chance to capture Iowa’s third league crown under the direction of Kirk Ferentz.
Does it favor Iowa to win the West?
Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK
Based on The Athletic’s projected win totals, the Hawkeyes are predicted to finish second in the West behind Wisconsin. The Badgers have an XWINS total of 8.7 and an 11.19% chance to win the Big Ten per these simulations.
What about the rest of the Big Ten? Who’s favored?
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Michigan is the two-time defending champion and The Athletic’s projected win totals suggest that the Wolverines will be swimming in confetti once more.
Per Mock, the Wolverines have a 34.58% to win the league and average 10.5 XWINS. Ohio State is next closest with 10.3 XWINS and a 33.11% to win the Big Ten. Penn State follows in third with 9.9 XWINS and a 14.74% chance to win the conference.
Iowa checks in with the fifth-most XWINS with its 7.4 and with the fifth-best odds to win the Big Ten at 2.37%.
What Mock wrote about the Hawkeyes
Syndication The Tennessean
Suffice it to say, Mock isn’t real high on Iowa blasting past the over on MGM’s 8.5 over-under win total for the Hawkeyes. Instead, he’s taking the -120 odds on the under with Iowa’s 8.5 win total.
I can’t get close to this number. Yes, I know, Iowa will find a way to be plus-25 in turnover differential and win nine games so I lose this bet, but the numbers are what they are. Cade McNamara should be a great game manager for this offense, but are we sure the offense can make the necessary strides? Road games at Iowa State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska shouldn’t be easy and you never know if you’ll get easy wins with this offense. The defense will be very good, again, but until the offense modernizes a bit, I can’t be bullish on this team. – Mock, The Athletic.
At least Mock knows he’s probably going to be wrong. Hey, you have to see it to believe it. That’s fair enough. It feels like Mock’s win totals model is also waiting to see it to believe it with the Hawkeyes, too.
Soon enough, Cade McNamara and Iowa’s offensive playmakers will have the opportunity to prove any doubters wrong.
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