Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Purdue Football

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Saturday’s Iowa-Purdue matchup comes with a few good story angles. The Hawkeyes need to avenge final season’s upset loss once they had been unbeaten and No. 2 within the nation. This 12 months, the Boilermakers high playmaker, receiver Charlie Jones, is an Iowa switch. 

When all the window dressing is peeled away, nevertheless, it is an essential Huge Ten West sport being contested in November. A win is significant for staying within the divisional race. 

It could possibly be made extra attention-grabbing by the groups contending with poor climate. The forecast is looking for rain and excessive winds. Which may damage Purdue, which leans on its passing sport. 

The Boilermakers (5-3 general, 3-2 Huge Ten) have received 4 of the final 5 conferences on this sequence after dropping 4 in a row. They’re favored on this sport. That mentioned, they are not overlooking the Hawkeyes (4-4, 2-3). 

“Our group understands they’re an opponent that yearly presents quite a few challenges,” Purdue coach Jeff Brohm mentioned this week. “They’re very properly coached, excellent on protection. They’re yearly. Make you earn the whole lot I get. Power you into making errors and benefit from that.”

A robust Purdue offense is led by quarterback Aidan O’Connell. He paces the Huge Ten with 324.3 passing yards per sport, greater than 27 forward his his nearest competitor, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. 

Jones has flourished within the Boilermaker assault after enjoying a backup position at Iowa. He leads the league with 72 catches, 24 greater than his nearest challenger. He has caught 9 landing passes. 

“It would not shock me,” mentioned Hawkeye receiver Nico Ragaini, who roomed with Jones at Iowa. “I knew he was participant.” 

Purdue additionally options one other former Hawkeye receiver, Tyrone Tracy Jr., who’s caught 24 passes for 188 yards to go along with six carries for 47 yards. 

“I performed in opposition to Charlie and Tyrone for the previous couple of years in apply,” Iowa security Kaevon Merriweather mentioned. “I do not to say it is no completely different than that however it is going to simply be enjoying in opposition to them once more like we did in apply. It will be thrilling to put successful on them as a substitute of not with the ability to in apply.” 

The Boilermakers have been one of many few groups to seek out constant success in opposition to the Iowa protection. Brohm’s offensive scheme takes benefit of what the Hawkeyes enable within the margins. 

“They do an exquisite job of getting ready for us. They create in wrinkles and methods to counter the kind of protection that we’ve got,” Merriweather mentioned.

Iowa’s inconsistent offense probably might want to contribute Saturday because of this. Purdue does yield 25.5 factors per sport, the fifth most within the Huge Ten. It does maintain up fairly properly in opposition to the run, permitting simply 110.3 yards per sport on the bottom. 

The Hawkeyes is perhaps finest served in throwing to arrange the push. The Boilermakers hand over 242.8 air yards a contest, the sixth most within the league. They do have 10 interceptions. 

Iowa’s offense awoke a bit final week in a 33-13 victory in opposition to Northwestern. It ran up 398 yards after rating close to the underside of the nation in that class. 

“Once I watched them this previous week they had been environment friendly,” Brohm mentioned. “They did not flip the ball over. They make the most of their zone operating scheme very properly with the jet sweeps and making some play-actions off of it. They had been in a position to get simple completions and get the ball out on time.”

Hawkeye quarterback Spencer Petras loved his finest sport of the 12 months final Saturday. He accomplished 21-of-30 passes – to eight completely different receivers — for 220 yards and one landing. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Eric Collins and Devin Gardner on FS1.

SERIES: Purdue holds a 50-39-3 benefit within the sequence that started with a 16-0 Iowa win in 1910. Purdue has received 4 ofthe final 5 within the sequence. The Hawkeyeslast win in West Lafayette got here in 2016 in a 49-35 shootout when Akrum Wadley (176 yards, 1 TD) and LeShun Daniels, Jr., (150 yards, 2 TDs) each went overthe centurymark. Iowa is 17-29-1 all-time in video games performed at Purdue. 

Iowa and the Boilermakers battled to a 21-21 tie at West Lafayette in 1994. That sport marks the final tie sport for Iowa earlier than the faculty soccer tie-breaker system was put in place.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 4.5-point underdog within the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday evening. It fell to the Hawkeyes +3.5 by Thursday afternoon. The full opened at 43.5 and moved to 39.5 by Thursday afternoon.

TRENDS

-Purdue is 6-2 Towards The Unfold (ATS) in its final 8 video games following a bye week.

-Over is 7-1 in Boilermakers final 8 dwelling video games.

-Iowa is 3-1-1 ATS in its final 5 street video games.

-Over is 7-2 in Hawkeyes final 9 convention video games.

PURDUE PLAYERS TO WATCH

–Aidan O’Connell, QB – Relationship again to final season, O’Connell is considered one of 5 quarterbacks to throw for over 5,900 yards and 40 touchdowns. He has 5 profession video games with 400 yards passing and three touchdowns, essentially the most by a Huge Ten quarterback since 2000, trailed by Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins and C.J. Stroud with 4. 

-Charlie Jones, WR – Jones has made a direct impression since transferring to Purdue from Iowa, rating second nationally in receptions per sport (9.0), fourth in receiving touchdowns (9) and sixth in receiving yards (840). He has recorded 5 100-yard video games this season, together with three in B1G play. He’s one landing away from changing into the tenth receiver in Purdue historical past to file 10 touchdowns in a single season.

–Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE – registered 15 pressures and 12 run stops this season via his first 5 video games, per PFF. He led the ‘Cats with 4.5 sacks and eight.5 tackles for loss final 12 months on his option to All-Huge Ten honors. The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman chosen Adebawore to his annual “Freak Checklist,” spotlighting 100 gamers in faculty soccer displaying terribly distinctive bodily talents. Notable accolades for Adebawore embrace: 30 bench press reps (225 lbs), 37.5″ vertical leap, 20-yd shuttle time of 4.05.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Purdue: Defend the soccer. O’Connell has thrown eight picks in as many video games. 

Iowa: Obtain significant contributions from its offense. 

GAME NOTES

-Purdue defensive finish Joe Strickland and Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins each attended Brebeuf Jesuit Prep Excessive College in Indianapolis, Ind. Purdue broad receiver Deion Burks and Iowa defensive backs Deshaun Lee, Brenden Deasfernandes, and Kaevon Merriweather all attended Belleville Excessive College in Belleville, Michigan

-The Boilermakers enable solely 3.62 tackles-for-loss per sport, main the B1G and rating sixth within the nation. The O-Line trio of Gus Hartwig, Spencer Holstege, and Eric Miller have began the previous 23 video games alongside each other. Holstege leads the way in which with 26 straight begins, adopted by Hartwig (24) and Miller (32).

-Whereas Purdue is primarily recognized for its passing sport, the Boilermakers have rushed for 14 touchdowns in comparison with 18 via the air. The 14 speeding scores surpass the overall from the earlier two seasons mixed (7 in 2021, 4 in 2020) and is already essentially the most in a season since Purdue rushed for 20 touchdowns in 2018.

-The Purdue protection has recorded 10 interceptions via the primary eight video games, rating third within the Huge Ten and fifteenth nationally. The Boilermakers have tallied a B1G-best seven interceptions in convention contests.

-The Boilermakers have been profitable within the crimson zone this season, scoring 34 out of 37 occasions for a 92 p.c fee and rating No. 16 within the nation. Furthermore, 27 of these 34 crimson zone scores have been touchdowns (73%).

-Saturday’s sport is Iowa’s first on a grass enjoying floor this season. The group’s final sport on grass was in Evanston through the 2021 season – a 17-12 Hawkeye victory. Iowa has received its final three video games on grass with its final loss coming at Purdue within the 2020 season opener (L, 24-20).

-Iowa’s protection is permitting 3.91 per play, which is No. 1 within the FBS. The Hawkeyes have held three opponents below 200 yards of whole offense this season.

-Iowa is fourth within the nation in scoring protection and whole protection, surrendering 15.8 factors and 265.6 yards per sport. The Hawkeyes have allowed 13 or fewer factors in six video games. Iowa has held all eight opponents below their season common in whole offense.

-Hawkeye freshman RB Kaleb Johnson began his second straight sport in opposition to Northwestern, the place he rushed for 94 yards on 14 makes an attempt, narrowly lacking his second profession 100-yard sport. By way of eight video games, Johnson has a team-best 353 yards with three touchdowns. His 18 factors are second on the group.

-10 X 9 – Iowa LB Jay Higgins had a career-high 11 tackles in Iowa’s win over Northwestern. Higgins is the fourth participant to tally 10+ tackles this season. The 4 gamers – Jack Campbell, Seth Benson and Cooper DeJean – have 9 10+ sort out video games in 2022. Campbell, Benson and Higgins mixed for 31 tackles in opposition to Northwestern.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Purdue – Hoshang Service provider 

Iowa – Cindy Lovell

HOWE I SEE IT: I’ve gone forwards and backwards on this sport all week. Had been Iowa’s offensive positive aspects in opposition to Northwestern actual or a mirage? The Wildcats have been the worst group within the convention. 

I’ve to see it once more earlier than I consider. The Boilermakers are respectable on protection, and I feel Iowa struggles to punch it into the tip zone sufficient on Saturday. 

The Hawkeyes would profit from the monsoon-like situations within the prolonged forecast. That could possibly be the equalizer. It isn’t good to rely on that, nevertheless. 

PREDICTION: Purdue 24, Iowa 23