Preview, Prediction: Iowa-Ohio State

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Iowa Soccer relishes the underdog function. In consequence, it must be sky excessive this week. 

The Hawkeyes (3-3 total, 1-2 Massive Ten) are off to Columbus to tackle No. 2-ranked and unbeaten Ohio State. As of the writing of this preview, they’re 29-point underdogs. The final time they had been that massive of an extended shot got here in opposition to Nebraska in 2000, when the Huskers had been favored by 41.5. 

For reference, the Buckeyes had been favored by 18.0 factors once they performed at Kinnick Stadium in ’17. Iowa shocked them, 55-24. That was the final time the groups performed. 

“We’re a blue-collar program,” Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins mentioned Tuesday. “So we’ll go on the market and provides it our all. You are not going to see any stop out of us. We’re getting in there to win a sport. We’re not simply going to roll over and provides it them.” 

Playing strains symbolize only one measurement when evaluating applications. Most coaches and gamers view the matchup by way of a unique lens, particularly what they see on movie. The Hawkeyes should break it down, assemble a inventive sport plan after which execute it. 

“It is loads completely different than going in opposition to South Dakota State,” Iowa cornerback Riley Moss mentioned Tuesday. “They loads greater. They’re loads sooner. So it will likely be a very good problem for us.” 

Ohio State paces the Massive Ten in scoring with 48.8 factors per sport. The Hawkeyes rank final (14.7). Iowa’s protection holds opponents to the second fewest quantity of factors (9.8) within the convention, whereas the Buckeyes test in fifth (15.7). 

“They’re excellent,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day mentioned Tuesday of the Hawkeyes’ protection. “We have been working exhausting and making an attempt to determine tips on how to assault them, however they’re excellent in what they do. Simply the minute you assume they don’t seem to be going to vary it up, they do, and are very nicely coached. 

“So, there is a purpose they’re ranked so excessive 12 months in and 12 months out. They’re one of many higher defenses within the nation. They do an ideal job, so this may actually be a problem for the offense.” 

Mentioned Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson: “They do not flash, however they’ve higher gamers than folks give them credit score for. They all the time have a handful of fellows who’re large on the perimeter. They’ve had nice linebackers. Robust up entrance. We’ll have our palms full blocking them. We’ll have our palms full making an attempt to get steadiness and get the run sport going. It should be an ideal check.” 

Heisman favourite CJ Stroud quarterbacks the Ohio State offense, which averages 543.7 yards per contest. He sports activities an eye-popping 207.6 quarterback ranking with 24 touchdowns passes and simply three interceptions.

Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. rank among the many High 4 receivers within the league from a statistical standpoint, combining for nearly 200 receiving yards per sport. Operating Backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson common 7.8 and 6.3 yards per rush, respectively. Preseason all-American receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is anticipated again from damage this week. 

“I feel it is the identical factor as Michigan,” Iowa security Kaevon Merriweather mentioned Tuesday. “When you could have an all-around, stable offense, you may’t actually simply focus or lock in on one half. You must be locked in on all the pieces.” 

Mike Corridor Jr. has emerged on the Buckeyes’ line of defense this season. His 1.50 tackles for loss per sport put him in a first-place tie with Michigan State’s Jacoby Windmon for the Massive Ten lead. Corridor Jr.’s .90 sacks per contest paced the convention.

Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg averages an Ohio State-best 8.3 tackles per sport with 2.5 sacks, a move breakup, 3.0 quarterback hurries and 6.0 tackles for loss. Fellow linebacker Steele Chambers averages greater than 5.0 stops per sport with 4.0 tackles for loss, a sack, an interception, a move breakup and a quarterback hurry.  

Cornerback Denzel Burke leads the Buckeyes with 4 move breakups. Cornerback Jyaire Brown and security Josh Proctor have two apiece. 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft on FOX.

SERIES: Saturday’s sport is the sixty fifth all-time assembly in a collection that started in 1922. Ohio State leads the all-time collection, 46-15-3, and the Buckeyes have received 13 of the final 15 contests. 

Iowa received the newest assembly, 55-24, in 2017 in Kinnick Stadium. That is Iowa’s first journey to Columbus since 2013. The Hawkeyes’ final win in Columbus got here in 1991 (16-9).

Ohio State has been ranked within the prime 10 in every of the final six conferences. That is the primary time Iowa has confronted Buckeye head coach Ryan Day.

BETTING LINES: Iowa opened as a 21.0-point underdog within the Vegas Insider consensus Sunday evening. It rose to the Hawkeyes +29.0 by Monday morning. The whole opened at 48.5 and transfer to 49.0 by Monday morning.

TRENDS

-Iowa is 3-0-1 In opposition to The Unfold (ATS) in its final 4 highway video games.

-Below is 6-1 in Hawkeyes’ final 7 video games total.

-Ohio State is 3-0-1 ATS in its final 4 video games total.

-Over is 4-0 in Buckeyes’ final 4 video games total.

OHIO STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

–CJ Stroud, QB – The present Heisman Trophy betting favourite comes into this week’s motion finishing 70.6 p.c of his passes for 1,737 yards and 24 touchdowns in opposition to simply three interceptions. 

-TreVeyon Henderson/Miyan Williams, RBs – The Buckeyes’ 1-2 backfield punch has mixed for 933 floor yards with 12 touchdowns. Each have averaged greater than 6.0 yards per carry. 

-Emeka Egbuka/Marvin Harrison Jr., WRs – Egbuka and Harrison Jr. have helped Ohio State soak up the damage lack of preseason all-American Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They’ve mixed for 66 receptions for 1,191 yards and 15 touchdowns. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

Ohio State: Keep away from serving to Iowa’s offense with turnovers and run the ball successfully.

Iowa: A predictable offensive sport plan will lead to an embarrassing loss. Creativity with execution is the one path to victory right here. 

GAME NOTES

-Ohio State hasn’t misplaced a Massive Ten Convention sport at Ohio Stadium since 2015 (Michigan State; 17-14). The Buckeyes have since received a Massive Ten document 27 consecutive convention video games at house.

-The 55 factors Iowa scored in opposition to Ohio State within the final assembly between the groups was a 23-year excessive in opposition to the Buckeyes, or since Penn State, Ohio State’s opponent subsequent week, scored 63 in 1994.

-Ohio State and No. 1 Georgia are the one applications High 10 nationally in each whole offense and whole protection. Each colleges, the truth is, are within the High 5. Ohio State is 2nd in offense (543.7) and fifth in protection (253.5).

-Ohio State has 44 performs of 20 or extra yards this season. Twenty 4 of these 44 performs have gone for 30+ yards, tops within the nation (with Tennessee).

-Since Ryan Day’s arrival on employees in 2017, Ohio State has by no means completed decrease than eleventh nationally in yards per play.

-The Hawkeye protection has allowed 10 factors or fewer in 5 of the workforce’s first six video games – a primary for this system since 1933. Iowa has allowed 59 factors in its first six video games, the fewest for this system since 1956 (57 factors).

-The Hawkeyes are third nationally in scoring protection (9.8). Iowa can also be second in passing effectivity protection (97.20), third in passing yards allowed (154.0), seventh in whole protection (265.0) and thirteenth in crimson zone protection (.733).

-Iowa is likely one of the least penalized groups within the nation, rating ninth in fewest penalty yards (241), fifteenth in fewest penalties (30), sixteenth in fewest penalty yards per sport (40.17) and twentieth in fewest penalties per sport (5.00).

-Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson is fourth within the Massive Ten in kickoff returns, averaging 25.5 yards per return. The Ohio native is second on the workforce in speeding with 232 yards and a team-high three touchdowns.

-Hawkeye LB Jack Campbell is second within the Massive Ten and tenth nationally, averaging 10.3 tackles per sport. The Cedar Falls, Iowa, native has 23 tackles within the final two video games and has 10+ tackles in 4 video games this season. Each Campbell and LB Seth Benson rank within the prime 5 within the Massive Ten in tackles.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

Ohio State – Reuben Klamer

Iowa – Eve Drewelowe

HOWE I SEE IT: It is not been usually over the last 20 plus years that I wrestle this tough discovering a path to victory for Iowa. That is as a result of it is troublesome imagining the Hawkeye offense we have seen by way of six video games having the ability to rating sufficient factors to outdo this explosive Ohio State assault. 

Now, I am not anticipating the Buckeyes to march up and down the sector in opposition to Iowa’s protection. However even when it holds them to half their season’s common, that might nonetheless be 24 factors. How are we feeling about Iowa placing up no less than 25 on the highway? 

Secure to say, it should take some massive performs on either side of the ball for the Hawkeyes to tug off the upset. Additionally they should maintain the errors to a minimal. 

I simply cannot image all of the issues needing to occur for Iowa to tug this off  taking place. 

PREDICTION: Ohio State 34, IOWA 10