The last time Missouri played Iowa, future NFL 1st round quarterback Blaine Gabbert was driving Missouri late in the game until he threw game-sealing pick six to future Buffalo Bill Micah Hyde.

It’s been 14 years since the Tigers played Missouri’s Hat, and during that time Iowa has been fairly consistent if not uninspiring: some of the worst offenses you’ve ever seen paired with the most effective defenses on the planet. All they do is beat teams they should beat and play the most boring brand of football you can think of. But, hey, it works!

And now, Missouri – minus its best athlete and lineman on offense – goes up against yet another elite-tier Iowa defense and a lackluster offense that struggles to do even the most basic stuff consistently well. Should be…fun?

When Missouri Has the Ball

When a defense is 6th in the nation in SP+ there’s very few things that they struggle with. And, in particular with the Hawkeyes, they are the most basic bitch defense you can think of: no big plays allowed, mediocre havoc, one of the most accurate tacklers in the country, and one of the more effective scoring defenses out there. It’s going to be zero fun watching an underwhelming Mizzou offense with several weeks off try to restart the offense against these eleven defenders.

Run the Ball

Usually, Iowa has supremely stout run defenses but that isn’t the case this year. The Hawkeyes rank a shocking 106th in rushing success rate allowed, as well as 119th in opponent’s opportunity rate. We all know that Mizzou would prefer to run the ball 50 times per game and this is the group that will let them do it. The Tigers should shoot for at least a 48% rushing success rate.

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Iowa’s defense in standard downs: 74th. Iowa’s defense in passing downs: 42nd. But considering that Iowa pass defense ranks 30th overall it would be best to avoid all obvious passing down situations and keep the Hawkeyes guessing. A 45% standard downs success rate should suffice.

Finish Your Dang Drives

This will be the second straight stingy scoring defense Missouri will see, and Mizzou was able to crack open Arkansas’ stranglehold inside the 40 in their matchup this year. Iowa, on the other hand, comes into this game with a mere 3.7 points allowed per opportunity, almost right where Arkansas was. Missouri has scored at least 20 points in every victory this year and Iowa has allowed at least 20 points in every loss so let’s start there: 6 scoring opportunities at 3.5 points per opportunity for a total of 21.

When Iowa Has the Ball

With two quarterbacks and one of the best running backs in the country missing this game, Iowa’s already anemic offense will be sputtering with backups at the key positions on offense. Missouri hasn’t been nearly as stout defensively as the year has gone on but should see a renaissance against a bad unit with backups.

Keyword: should.

Stop the Run

Iowa isn’t very good at running the ball but they are 5th in the nation in run rates on standard downs with a 73% chance of running the ball in that situation. They also rank 52 in running the ball in passing downs (35%). Stop the run -> make them pass -> profit. I’d like to see Iowa’s rushing success at 40% or less.

Turnovers!

Given the amount of fumbles and types of passes batted around, Iowa should have turned the ball over 10.7 times and, in reality, they’ve had 11 turnovers, so they’re right on track. But Iowa’s defense should have had 19.6 turnovers while in reality they’ve grabbed 24. So the Hawkeye’s have benefited from a little bit of luck and an opportunistic defense…and Mizzou’s defense is going to need to flip the script. Mizzou’s defense has been good at taking advantage when the opportunity presents itself and they need to ride that to a +2 in the turnover department.

Conclusion

Iowa is a more extreme version of Missouri which means this game could go very quick and be very boring. Mizzou’s penchant for waiting until the 4th quarter to score points would be a very bad idea against this type of opponent, but Iowa’s offense could be so ineffective that it might not matter. Hopefully we’re pleasantly surprised by an entertaining game because this has all the makings of a snoozer of a low-scoring result.