U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz speaks to Iowa Republicans on midterm elections
Here from Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, talk to Iowa Republicans on midterm elections at Faith and Freedom’s Spring Kickoff on May 1, 2026.
- Leaders of both parties are eyeing the Hawkeye State as it boasts numerous open and competitive races.
- Races for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House will dominate the playing field in Iowa.
For a ruby red state controlled at nearly every level by GOP elected officials, Iowa Republicans are unusually nervous going into the 2026 midterm election season.
The state has open races for governor and U.S. Senate, and it will see two of its four U.S. House races heavily targeted as Democratic pickup opportunities.
The governor’s race in particular has unsettled Republicans, as well-funded, well-liked Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand marshals a formidable campaign infrastructure while Republicans fight out a divisive five-way primary race.
The candidate field will be set in the state’s primary elections Tuesday, June 2.
National leaders of both parties see Iowa as a potential key to either holding or reversing national control of Congress, and Democrats hope to reclaim ground with rural voters in a state that has consistently trended red.
“The Democrats have put a bullseye on the state of Iowa,” Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz warned Iowa Republicans at a May 2 rally in suburban Des Moines.
Cruz said Democrats believe they can swing control of the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate away from Republicans just by flipping seats in Iowa.
“And they’re probably right about that,” he said.
National midterm trends favor Democrats, as polling shows voters souring on Republican President Donald Trump, gas prices skyrocket amid war with Iran, and the cost of living remains high.
In Iowa, the state has taken additional hits as trade wars and high costs threaten a renewed farm crisis in the state’s agricultural economy.
But it will be a tough road for Democrats in the Hawkeye State, even if the midterm stars align in their favor.
Registered Republican voters outnumber registered Democrats in Iowa by nearly 200,000, and Republicans have dominated recent election cycles in the state.
Trump carried Iowa by about 13 percentage points in 2024. And Republicans hold all six seats in Congress, both chambers of the state Legislature and every statewide elected office but one.
“We have the record, we have the numbers,” Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking another term, said at a March event with the Polk County GOP.
“If we show up, we will win,” she said.
U.S. Senate race: Democrats will choose between two ‘fighters’
One of the most closely watched primary races in Iowa is the Democratic contest for U.S. Senate.
Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, announced last year she would not run in 2026, leaving the seat open and stoking Democrats’ hopes for reclaiming it.
However, a Democrat has not held a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa since longtime senator Tom Harkin retired in 2015.
A pair of Democrats, state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls, are hoping to change that.
Both are running aggressive primary campaigns, each arguing he is the more electable candidate in a general election.
Turek, of Council Bluffs, touts his grit on the campaign trail.
Growing up with spina bifida, Turek endured 21 surgeries before age 12 and went on to become a gold medal-winning Paralympian representing Team USA in wheelchair basketball.
He says he’s a “battle tested” candidate after winning his Iowa House seat in a western Iowa district that Trump carried.
“I went out, and I crawled stairs and I knocked doors dragging my wheelchair up there to have a conversation with every single person in the community,” he said. “That didn’t matter, Democrats, independents, Republicans. Talked to them all, and talked about the issues they cared about. And I won my first election by just six votes.”
Wahls, of Coralville, says he’ll motivate voters by taking on a corrupt political system that’s rigged in favor of billionaires and corporations at the expense of the middle class.
He rose to political prominence after giving a viral speech at age 19 on the Iowa House floor defending his two moms’ right to marry.
“Iowans want a fighter who has that courage to challenge a broken system and the status quo that is failing our state. I think that’s the core contrast in this race for Democratic primary voters,” Wahls said. “I’m willing to fight back against an establishment that has failed Iowans over and over again. Rep. Turek is being supported by that establishment.”
The candidates share similar views across a range of issues, although Turek cuts a more moderate image, while Wahls leans more progressive — a dynamic that echoes Democratic primaries across the country this year.
One point of contention: Wahls has said he will not vote for U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader if elected and has called on Turek, who he has criticized for being too closely aligned with the Democratic political establishment, to do the same.
“I’ve called on Josh Turek to join me in rejecting outside spending in this race and rejecting Chuck Schumer’s leadership. He’s refused,” Wahls said. “If he doesn’t have the courage to take on the failed leaders in our own party, he won’t be able to take on Donald Trump either.”
Turek said in a May 5 debate he is “not a D.C. insider.”
“I don’t know these folks,” he said. “I only have one idea with this. And that is: I am not measuring the drapes.”
But the perception that outside forces are working hard to shape the race has rattled some Iowa Democrats.
VoteVets, an outside group that has previously aligned with Senate Democratic leadership but denies any coordination in Iowa’s race, has spent $10 million on television and digital advertising and direct mail to support Turek since March 23, according to reports with the Federal Election Commission.
Although Turek is not a veteran, he believes his spina bifida was caused by his father’s exposure to Agent Orange while serving in Vietnam.
The $10 million figure has dwarfed what the candidates themselves have raised and spent and could dramatically shape the race’s outcome.
Turek and Wahls have so far raised $3.5 million and $3.7 million respectively.
The winner of Tuesday’s primary is expected to take on Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson.
Hinson announced her Senate campaign just hours after Ernst said she would not seek reelection. She quickly secured major endorsements from Iowa political leaders, as well as Trump.
She faces a primary from former state Sen. Jim Carlin, although she is heavily favored to win.
Both national parties have signaled their intentions to invest heavily in the state as it moves into the general election — an indication of Iowa’s importance to the parties’ overall strategies.
The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund said it will spend $29 million on behalf of Hinson while the Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC plans to spend $13.4 million in Iowa.
Rob Sand energizes Democrats; Republicans will choose nominee in June 2 primary race
Nonpartisan elections analysts at the Cook Political Report have labeled Iowa’s governor’s race as a “toss-up,” moving it into the most competitive category the organization tracks.
“The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner,” wrote Matthew Klein, an analyst who focuses on gubernatorial contests.
Sand, the Democratic state auditor, has energized Iowa voters and garnered national media buzz as he assembles what Iowa Democrats and Republicans alike say is a strong campaign operation.
He started early and aggressively, completing a 100-stop public town hall tour before presumed GOP frontrunner, U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, formally got into the race.
Sand plans another 100-stop tour this summer, arguing the effort will help raise his profile among prospective voters, especially in the small towns and rural areas that have abandoned Democrats in recent election cycles.
He said he believes that even if voters don’t completely agree with him, they’ll respect him for having the conversation.
According to the campaign, Sand met with about 10,000 people across all 100 of his town halls, taking roughly 750 questions.
Sand positions himself as an independent-minded Democrat fed up with the two-party political system. And on the campaign trail, he argues that single-party control of government has led to abuses of power.
“We all know the phrase ‘power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely,’” he said as he embarked on his statewide tour. “And now we can say it also takes 10 years. Ten years of one-party control.”
He said that isn’t a partisan statement.
“I invite you to visit the state of California. I invite you to visit the state of New York,” he said. “There, you will find problems. … Either party, when left to its own devices, will begin to serve insiders and special interest groups.”
He’s also incredibly well-funded.
Sand has raised nearly $28 million since the start of his campaign — a number that is boosted significantly by his wealthy in-laws, who have contributed about $11.5 million.
Sand has used his war chest to begin airing a series of accountability-focused television ads, while his opponents are mired in a competitive primary fight.
Five Republicans will be on the June 2 primary ballot, including Feenstra, state Rep. Eddie Andrews, businessman Zach Lahn, former state Rep. Brad Sherman and former state administrator Adam Steen.
Feenstra entered the race as the presumed frontrunner, with millions of dollars already at his disposal and the backing of some of the state’s top elected officials.
He has run a campaign focused on making Iowa a business- and ag-friendly state, improving education, reducing property taxes, and increasing access to quality and affordable health care.
He touts his work helping to secure Trump’s agenda in Congress, including helping to author portions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Trump issued a key endorsement in Feenstra’s favor just days before the primary, which could help buoy his prospects.
Iowa’s MAGA-aligned Republican base has always treated Feenstra with some skepticism — a mood that has intensified as he avoids many public-facing events, including multi-candidate forums and primary debates.
As Election Day nears, Feenstra faces the threat of failing to reach the 35% threshold needed to secure the nomination outright.
If no candidate hits that benchmark, the nomination will be decided by a group of a grassroots delegates at a statewide convention June 13.
In the final days of the race, Feenstra’s campaign has trained its attacks on Lahn, a businessman, entrepreneur and farmer who has aligned himself with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement.
Lahn has gained momentum on the campaign trail by focusing much of his message on fighting special interests and corporate monopolies, as well as Iowa’s rising cancer rates and problems with water quality.
“We don’t have time to ignore the problem anymore,” Lahn said of Iowa’s cancer and water problems. “And I think Iowans know that.”
He’s also aired a series of TV ads emphasizing his conservative roots, arguing that “Marxists” have “hijacked” public school curricula and that government jobs should not go to H-1B visa holders in an effort to end illegal immigration.
Lahn outraised Feenstra in the fundraising period that ran from Jan. 1 to May 14, although Feenstra has raised more overall. Lahn has self-funded the bulk of his campaign, contributed $2 million to the effort.
Also on the GOP ballot are state Rep. Eddie Andrews, former state Rep. Brad Sherman and former state administrator Adam Steen.
A pair of congressional races will put Iowa in the spotlight
Two of Iowa’s four congressional races are rated “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report and are expected to draw significant national attention. There are just 18 such races in the country.
The 3rd District, which encompasses the Capitol city of Des Moines, is perhaps the state’s swingiest.
Currently represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn, the district is about 36% registered Republicans and 31% registered Democrats. Another 32% are no-party voters.
Nunn is being challenged by Sarah Trone Garriott, a state senator from West Des Moines. Both are unopposed for their party’s nomination.
And in the state’s southeast corner, Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller‑Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan are gearing up for what could be their third race against each other since 2022.
Despite each facing party challengers, Both Miller-Meeks and Bohannan have been largely operating in general election mode ahead of the June 2 primary. The two each have stockpiled more than $4 million for one of the nation’s top targeted U.S. House battles.
Democrats have also identified Iowa’s 2nd District as a possible pickup opportunity under the right circumstances. That is an open race after Hinson decided to run for U.S. Senate.
Cook Political Report has shifted the race from “Solid R” to “Likely R,” saying Democrats “have a better shot” at competing now that Hinson is running for another position.
In the Democratic race, state Rep. Lindsay James of Dubuque has emerged as the party’s fundraising leader, followed by former Cedar Rapids nonprofit leader Clint Twedt-Ball and former Kirkwood Community College Dean of Nursing Kathy Dolter.
And on the Republican side, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell of Clear Lake has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary, building a massive fundraising advantage over state Sen. Charlie McClintock of Alburnett, while collecting endorsements from Trump and national Republicans.
Des Moines Register reporters Stephen Gruber-Miller and Marissa Payne contributed to this report.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She writes about campaigns, elections and the Iowa Caucuses. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on X at @brianneDMR.
