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Iowa State basketball vs. Houston prediction, game preview

Published

1 month ago

February 15, 2026

Iowa State basketball vs. Houston prediction, game preview

The win over Kansas was an exciting one for Iowa State men’s basketball, but the Cyclones are already on to the next one.

There was hardly any time to soak in the Saturday, Feb. 14 victory over the ninth-ranked Jayhawks, as there will be a quick turnaround into another marquee matchup.

Iowa State will host No. 3 Houston on Monday, Feb. 16. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. CT and will be broadcast on ESPN as part of its “Big Monday” showcase.

The Cyclones (22-3, 9-3 Big 12 Conference) enjoyed a resounding 74-56 win over Kansas in a rematch, after dropping the earlier meeting against the Jayhawks on Jan. 13.

Reigning Big 12 regular-season and tournament champion Houston (23-2, 11-1) enters with a six-game winning streak and is currently in first place within the conference standings. The Cougars defeated Kansas State in their previous game on Feb. 14. At one point, they had a 28-4 run to finish the first half and went on to win 78-64.

Here are three things to watch for in Monday’s game:

Houston freshman Kingston Flemings, one of the biggest stock risers

Kingston Flemings certainly wasn’t an unknown coming out of high school.

The top-ranked recruit from Texas in his class, Flemings entered college as a five-star guard and the No. 16 overall prospect, according to 247 Sports.

However, he wasn’t on any NBA mock drafts before the start of the 2025-26 college basketball campaign, or even in the early parts of the season.

All that has quickly changed over the course of his freshman year.

Flemings has turned plenty of heads with his play this season. The 6-foot-4 guard is averaging 16.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.8 steals per game, while shooting 50.7% overall and 36.5% from deep.

A shifty, speedy guard, Flemings is a weapon in transition, but he also has the quick burst to get past his defender in half-court sets. He is a crafty and smart guard who is calculated when it comes to pulling up in the mid-range or taking shots at the basket. He is a good facilitator and can occasionally take-and-make 3-pointers when left open.

His best showing came in a 42-point outing in a 90-86 loss at Texas Tech on Jan. 24. He also had six assists, two steals and two turnovers.

His speed and quickness seamlessly translate over to the defensive end. He is a perfect fit in Sampson’s scheme and he has the quick hands and physical tools to wreak havoc on that end of the court.

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on win over Kansas

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on the Cyclones’ win over Kansas in the Feb. 14 rematch.

Houston’s dominance on both sides of the ball

There might not be enough words to describe the continuity and success that Kelvin Sampson has been able to establish at Houston, especially since the start of the decade.

The Cougars were dominant in the tail end of their stay in the American Athletic Conference, and they never missed a beat since coming to the Big 12. They’ve reached at least the Sweet 16 in each of their last six NCAA Tournaments, with two Final Four appearances, including a national runner-up finish last year.

A large part of that success is attributed to its defensive style of play under Sampson. However, in each of the last six years, the Cougars have exceled on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, they’ve ranked in the top 20 for both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Houston ranks No. 12 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 for defensive efficiency.

Guards Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler are key returners from last year.

Tugler, a 6-foot-8 forward, is a defensive stalwart. The reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year is contributing a tad more on the scoring end, but he remains a hard-working player on the court.

Sharp, a three-year starter at Houston, has built off of his postseason success last season – which included Big 12 Tournament MVP and NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Most Outstanding Player honors – with his best year yet. He is averaging 16.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game.

Uzan remains a productive starter for the Cougars, but his shooting percentages have dropped since last season. He is averaging 11.2 points and 3.9 assists per game, but he is shooting 38.0% overall and 32.6% from deep.

Aside from Flemings, Chris Cenac Jr. has also carved out a starting role as a freshman. The 6-foot-11 New Orleans native is averaging 9.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Former five-star recruit Isiah Harwell is one of the Cyclones’ go-to players off the bench. He’s still raw, but the Cougars believe in the freshman guard’s upside.

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on Pleta, Buchanan

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger shared his thoughts on the play of big men Dominykas Pleta and Blake Buchanan against Kansas.

The turnover, rebounding battle

Houston and Iowa State are two defense-first teams that take great pride in their all-out effort and physical style of play. They both try to wear their opponents down, be disruptive, and generate turnovers.

Both teams have also exceled on the offensive glass this season. The Cyclones and Cougars are in the top 20 nationally for offensive rebounding rate. Iowa State secures 37.3% of offensive rebounding chances, while Houston is right behind at 37.0%. Tugler and Cenac are both strong rebounders for the Cougars. Cenac is tough on the glass on both ends, while Tugler is one of the top offensive rebounders in the country. He has the second-highest offensive rebounding rate in the Big 12.

The Cyclones rank No. 5 in defensive efficiency. In their recent win over Kansas, they returned to form on the defensive end by keeping Kansas to a season-low 56 points. They set the tone early with their ability to generate turnovers. Perhaps Hilton Magic played a role, but they were able to pressure the Jayhawks, make them uncomfortable and create scoring opportunities off turnovers.

Iowa State generates turnovers on 22.4% of opponents’ possessions, the eighth-highest rate in the country.

Houston is stingy across the board, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.0% this year. Houston remains one of the most disruptive teams around, with a turnover rate of 22.6%, the fifth-best mark in the country. The Cougars also take great care of the ball, with the second-lowest turnover rate.

Iowa State basketball vs. Houston prediction

Home-court advantage will help the Cyclones, but they’ll need to execute against a team that prides itself on making opponents uncomfortable. The team that can get defensive stops and create more extra possessions will be in better shape to win this Big Monday marquee matchup. If you like grit and grind, there will be plenty of that when Iowa State-Houston squares off. Prediction: Iowa State 69, Houston 65

Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.

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See which Iowa lawmakers voted to hike private health insurance taxes

Published

9 minutes ago

March 25, 2026

Press Room

See which Iowa lawmakers voted to hike private health insurance taxes

Some Iowa health insurance plans will see a tax hike under a bill headed to Gov. Kim Reynolds to be signed into law.

House File 2739 raises taxes on health insurance providers known as health maintenance organizations, or HMOs, to bring in millions of dollars to fill a shortfall in the state’s Medicaid budget.

That group includes companies that offer some of the state’s largest private insurance plans, like Wellmark, Sanford, Wellpoint and Aetna.

Fourteen Republicans across both chambers broke from their party to join Democrats and oppose the proposal, which put the GOP majority in the rare position of being at odds with business groups lobbying against tax hikes. But Republicans in each chamber had enough votes to pass the measure.

How much will health insurance taxes increase?

The taxes will increase from the current rate of 0.925% up to 3.5% between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 2026. Beginning Oct. 1, 2026, the tax would drop to 0.95%.

The tax increase would allow the state to access federal matching funds and is expected to bring in $123 million to shore up Iowa’s growing Medicaid budget deficit, which is expected to climb to $167.6 million in fiscal year 2027.

The bill also appropriates $89 million to cover the state’s current-year Medicaid budget deficit of $90.6 million.

Democrats warned Iowans will face higher insurance costs as a result of the bill.

Scott Sundstrom, a lobbyist for Wellmark, said at a March 18 public hearing that Wellmark estimates that its customers who are covered by the company’s plan will see a $115 tax increase per person. The company expects to pay $24.2 million more in taxes this year because of the increase.

Why are Iowa Republicans raising taxes?

Republicans have pointed to insurance companies’ profit margins and said health insurers — who have been highly critical of the bill — do not need to raise premiums to cover the cost of the tax increase.

GOP legislative leaders have said there’s a limited window to bring in matching federal funds because of Republicans’ sprawling tax and spending package dubbed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.”

“This bill will bring investments that benefit our neighbors on Medicaid and those providing the services to them,” said Sen. Mark Costello, R-Imogene.

Here’s how every Iowa lawmaker voted.

How every Iowa House lawmaker voted on health care tax increase

The Iowa House voted 53-40 to pass the measure on March 19.

Ten Republicans joined every Democrat in voting against the bill: Reps. David Blom, R-Marshalltown; Mark Cisneros, R-Muscatine; Bill Gustoff, R-Des Moines; Thomas Jeneary, R-Le Mars; Judd Lawler, R-Oxford; Norlin Mommsen, R-De Witt; Jennifer Smith, R-Dubuque; Ray Sorensen, R-Greenfield; Ryan Weldon, R-Ankeny; and David Young, R-Van Meter.

Representatives voting yes

Andrews (R), Barker (R), Behn (R), Bergan (R), Bloomingdale (R), Boden (R), Bossman (R), Bradley (R), Collins (R), Determann (R), Dunwell (R), Fett (R), Fisher (R), Gearhart (R), Gehlbach (R), Grassley (R), Harris (R), Hayes (R), Henderson (R), Hermanson (R), Holt (R), Hora (R), Ingels (R), Johnson, C. (R), Jones (R), Kaufmann (R), Kniff McCulla (R), Larson (R), Latham (R), Lohse (R), Lundgren (R), Meggers (R), Meyer, A. (R), Mohr, G. (R), Moore, T. (R), Nordman (R), Rinker (R), Shipley, (R) Sieck (R), Siegrist (R), Sitzmann (R), Stone, (R), Thompson, M. (R), Thomson, C. (R), Vondran (R), Watkins (R), Wengryn (R), Wheeler (R), Williams (R), Wills, J. (R) , Wilz, H. (R), Wood (R), Wulf (R)

Representatives voting no

Baeth (D), Bagniewski (D), Blom (R), Brown-Powers (D), Cisneros (R), Cooling (D), Croken (D), Ehlert (D), Gjerde (D), Gosa (D), Gustoff (R), Jacoby (D), James (D), Jeneary (R), Johnson, R. (D), Judge (D), Konfrst (D), Kressig (D), Kurth (D), Lawler (R), Levin (D), Madison (D), Matson (D), McBurney (D), Meyer, B. (D), Mommsen (R), Nielsen (D), Olson (D), Ramirez (D), Scholten (D), Smith (R), Sorensen (R), Srinivas (D), Turek (D), Weldon (R), Wichtendahl (D), Wilburn (D), Wilson (D), Young (R), Zabner (D)

Representatives absent or not voting

Amos Jr. (D), Dieken (R), Gaines (D), Gerhold (R), Golding (R), Wessel-Kroeschell (D), Windschitl (R)

How every Iowa Senate lawmaker voted on health care tax increase

The Iowa Senate voted 26-19 to pass the bill on Tuesday, March 24, sending it to Reynolds.

Four Republican senators joined Democrats in voting against the bill: Sens. Mike Bousselot, R-Ankeny; Doug Campbell, R-Mason City; Charlie McClintock, R-Alburnett; and David Sires, R-Cedar Falls.

Senators voting yes

Alons (R), Gruenhagen (R), Costello (R), Dawson (R), Dickey (R), Driscoll (R), Evans (R), Green (R), Guth (R), Klimesh (R), Koelker (R), Kraayenbrink (R), Pike (R), Reichman (R), Rozenboom (R), Salmon (R), Schultz (R), Shipley (R), Sinclair (R), Sweeney (R), Taylor (R), Warme (R), Webster (R), Westrich (R), Whitver (R), Zumbach (R)

Senators voting no

Bennett (D), Bisignano (D), Blake (D), Bousselot (R), Campbell (R), Donahue (D), Dotzler (D), Drey (D), Hardman (D), Knox (D), McClintock (R), Petersen (D), Sires (R), Staed (D), Townsend (D), Quirmbach (D), Weiner (D), Winckler (D), Zimmer (D)

Senators absent or not voting

Garrett (R), Lofgren (R), Rowley (R), Trone Garriott (D), Wahls (D)

Marissa Payne covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. Reach her by email at mjpayne@registermedia.com. Follow her on X at @marissajpayne.

Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber.

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USA TODAY Sports Network picks for Iowa vs Nebraska in Sweet 16

Published

12 hours ago

March 24, 2026

Press Room

USA TODAY Sports Network picks for Iowa vs Nebraska in Sweet 16

Hawk Central report
| Des Moines Register

Iowa basketball travels to Houston this week to play Nebraska in the Sweet 16 of March Madness.

The Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers will meet at 6:10 p.m. CT at Toyota Center. TBS has the telecast.

Nebraska was a 1.5-point favorite as of Tuesday evening. Here are game predictions from USA TODAY Sports Network staffers:

USA TODAY Sports predictions for Iowa vs. Nebraska

Blake Toppmeyer: Nebraska
Paul Myerberg: Nebraska
Jordan Mendoza: Nebraska
John Brice: Nebraska
Matt Glenesk: Nebraska
Craig Meyer: Iowa
John Leuzzi: Nebraska
Austin Curtright: Iowa
Ehsan Kassim: Nebraska
Will Kennedy: Iowa

You can find all of their Sweet 16 predictions here.

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4 thoughts from Iowa women’s abrupt NCAA exit vs Virginia | Leistikow

Published

1 day ago

March 24, 2026

Press Room

4 thoughts from Iowa women’s abrupt NCAA exit vs Virginia | Leistikow

IOWA CITY — The Iowa women’s basketball team was playing with fire down the stretch of its season.

And in the always-tense round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament, the second-seeded Hawkeyes got burned.

Stagnant offense, missed free throws and continued woes from 3-point range were too much for Iowa to overcome in a disheartening, 83-75 double-overtime loss to 10th-seeded Virginia before 14,332 fans at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on March 23.

Though there were 50 minutes of court action, this was still an abrupt end of the season — similar to Iowa’s loss to No. 10 seed Creighton in the round of 32 in 2022.

“We didn’t deserve to win,” Iowa head coach Jan Jensen said. “We took 20 more shots (84 to 63). We out-rebounded them (50 to 42). Free throws were bad. Three-point percentage, bad. Hats off to Virginia. … That’s a great, great story. Players made shots. Players made plays. We didn’t make enough of them.

“Even with all of that … one little free throw by someone.”

And … yeah, that’s why it was so frustrating.

Iowa was favored by 13½ points and looked like it finally got things together, taking a 52-43 lead with 8:07 remaining. But Iowa scored only five points in the rest of regulation, with Chit-Chat Wright missing a wild 2-pointer on the final possession.

But probably the biggest blown opportunity came with 22 seconds left in the first overtime. With a tie score, 63-63, Iowa was awarded two free throws and the ball after a flagrant-1 foul on Virginia’s Sa’Myah Smith for connecting with Hannah Stuelke in the neck.

Iowa could choose anyone to shoot the foul shots, and Wright – an 86% free-throw shooter – knocked down 1-of-2. She was fouled again, and hit just 1-of-2. Instead of a potential four-point lead, Iowa’s lead was two … and Kymora Johnson scored to force Iowa’s first double-overtime game in six years.

“I practice free throws day in and day out,” Wright said. “I really expected myself to make those two that I missed. Just got to get in the gym and get better.”

Iowa shot 5-of-29 from 3-point range and 8-of-16 from the foul line. Those aren’t winning numbers against almost any opponent. The Hawkeyes were 1-of-13 from 3 and 17-of-29 from the foul line in a precarious NCAA Tournament opener against Fairleigh Dickinson.

“We have to make shots. That’s basketball,” said sophomore Taylor Stremlow, who was 1-for-10 from 3. “That’s what we’re here for.”

Add it up, and Iowa was 14.3% from 3 (6-for-42) and 55.6% from the line (25-for-45) in two games here this week. Tack those numbers onto the 45-point outing in the Big Ten championship game vs. UCLA, and the Hawkeyes’ final three games were disappointing.

“There’s not many excuses you can make,” said senior Kylie Feuerbach, who was 1-for-7 from 3. “You can’t let up. I personally didn’t hit the shots that were open. We had the crowd behind us. We had the energy. We had everything in our favor. We weren’t able to maximize those opportunities.”

Three duds don’t take away from what was an overachieving season.

But appreciating the season needs a little time.

“It’s been a great year,” Jensen said. “It’s just when it ends like this, it’s a dagger.”

Chit-Chat Wright reflects on missed free throws, first season at Iowa

The sophomore transfer eyes next season after Iowa’s 83-75 double-overtime loss to Virginia in the NCAA Tournament.

Assertive Chit-Chat, cramping Chit-Chat

That was the missive from Jensen coming into this round-of-32 matchup, to get Wright to be more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor.

Wright uncorked a 3-pointer on Iowa’s first possession and was Iowa’s leading scorer in the first half, scoring eight points on 4-of-10 shooting. Wright’s tendency has been to shrink when her shot is off, but she kept firing — which was important, especially as the Hawkeyes got only 8:48 of playing time from Heiden in the opening 20 minutes.

Wright’s 3-pointer with 5:43 left pushed Iowa to a 55-51 lead. But shortly thereafter, she was pulled with cramps — an issue she has dealt with during the late part of the season. Wright came out of the game, sucked down some applesauce and pickle juice and quickly returned after 40 seconds on the bench.

The cramping returned in both overtimes but she battled through it to play 49:20.

“It was in and out,” Wright said. “It would go away and come back.”

For the game, Wright finished with 21 points on 8-of-22 shooting with five rebounds, three assists and five turnovers. The misfire at the end of regulation was a relapse of being a bit too indecisive. Jensen said that was on her as a coach to bring Wright along this offseason.

“We drew it up. But there was so much hesitancy,” Jensen said. “I think that was the youth. Again, it goes to the deference. ‘Should I be looking for Ava?’ Well, no, you had it wide open.”

Tearful goodbyes to Kylie Feuerbach, Hannah Stuelke

The toughest part about the loss was seeing two program stalwarts who were part of two Final Four runs end their Hawkeye careers.

Feuerbach had four points and five assists before fouling out. Stuelke set career highs in minutes (48:34) and rebounds (19) to go with 15 points and six assists in her final game.

“Those are two of my best friends,” Stremlow said. “It’s hard knowing we won’t get another opportunity to play with them. It’s just hard. They’ve meant so much to our program.”

Both players were instrumental to this 27-7 season. By the end, Jensen really had only six players she could trust in crunch-time situations. These seniors provided stability.

Stuelke battled through multiple injuries and played wherever Jensen needed her.

Feuerbach was the ultimate defensive stopper, earning all-defense honors in the Big Ten.

“Surreal,” Feuerbach said of her five years at Iowa. “It would be impossible to list off everything right now. This moment really is hard, but then you can look back at all the highs that you’ve had, and they surpass everything else.”

Stuelke was a starter on the 2024 team that reached the national-title game. She outscored Caitlin Clark that year in the national semifinals as Iowa beat UConn. She once scored 47 points in a game.

She was a massive part of Jensen’s first two seasons at the helm as she looks to build it back up to where it was when Clark moved on to the WNBA in 2024.

“It’ll be trending upwards,” Stuelke said. “The young girls on this team are really great. If they keep growing, they’re going to be spectacular. I’m excited to keep watching them and cheering them on. Hopefully they’ll text me if they need any advice.”

Hear from Ava Heiden after Iowa women’s basketball season ends vs. Virginia

Ava Heiden scores 55 points in two NCAA games, but has regrets

Heiden had a clean look to win the game at the end of the first overtime off a putback, but didn’t take it. Stremlow’s in-and-out 3, with the score 65-65, bounded into Heiden’s hands, about 6 feet away from the hoop. Instead of going back up for a shot, she looked to kick it out. She said in postgame interviews that she thought she had more time. Once she realized the clock was about to expire, she put up a wild shot that wasn’t close.

“That’s on me,” Heiden said. “I could’ve probably been more aware of the clock. That’s something I’ll grow into. I haven’t quite been in those late-game situations where I’m the one getting the (last shot).”

That set up the second fateful overtime.

Heiden was once again Iowa’s best player even though she missed 11:12 of the first half with two early fouls. This was the epitome of a learning experience for a sophomore who had a great season, but whose best play is undoubtedly yet to come.

“That first five minutes, we were kind of rolling,” Jensen said. “She did some of the things she did earlier (in the season), fouling 94 feet away. That (second) one was such a bizarre one how she got it, still learning about her body control.”

Heiden confessed after scoring 29 of Iowa’s 58 points in its first-round win that she wasn’t fully comfortable being the go-to player in key moments. That should come.

Heiden finished with a team-high 26 points in 36:20.

“It’s just hard,” Heiden said. “There are some things that all of us could’ve done better at. Definitely things I wanted to do better. We’ll grow from it and apply it to next year.”

Heiden finished her year with 614 points, third in Iowa program history among sophomores behind the uncatchable Caitlin Clark (863) and Megan Gustafson (628). Pretty elite company. And a centerpiece to build around for the next two years.

Hawkeyes columnist Chad Leistikow has served for 31 years with The Des Moines Register and USA TODAY Sports Network. Chad is the 2023 INA Iowa Sports Columnist of the Year and NSMA Co-Sportswriter of the Year in Iowa. Join Chad’s text-message group at HawkCentral.com/HawkeyesTexts. Follow @ChadLeistikow on X.

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