Iowa basketball vs. Northwestern is crucial step in Hawkeyes’ path to Big Ten Tournament

IOWA CITY — Iowa basketball’s season was in a dramatically different place the last time it faced off against Northwestern.

Their first meeting this season, which came back on Dec. 3, 2024, ended in theatrics. Down by two with less than one second remaining, Josh Dix’s long-range 3-pointer splashed through the net to deliver a dramatic victory.

With the win, Iowa improved to 7-1 on the season, including 1-0 in Big Ten play. There was still plenty of optimism surrounding what the Hawkeyes could accomplish. At least for one night, Iowa seemed like a team of destiny.

A lot has changed since then.

Iowa and Northwestern will play for the second time this season on Friday. This time, in Evanston, Illinois. The tenor of Iowa’s season is drastically different than it was after that December matchup.

The Hawkeyes (15-13, 6-11) have seen their season take a plunge. Since those back-to-back wins over Nebraska and Indiana, Iowa is just 3-9 over its last 12 games. Barring an improbable run, making the NCAA Tournament is not in the cards for the Hawkeyes. 

The more relevant picture is that of the Big Ten Tournament. Friday’s matchup with Northwestern will be crucial to Iowa’s chances of making the event, which includes 15 of the league’s 18 teams.

Here is a look at the bottom of the Big Ten standings, as of Friday morning:

• Nebraska (7-10)
• Rutgers (7-11)
• Minnesota (6-11)
• Northwestern (6-11)
• USC (6-11)
• Iowa (6-11)
• Penn State (5-13)
• Washington (4-13)

Iowa is currently in a four-way tie with Minnesota, Northwestern and USC. But the Hawkeyes can gain some separation from the Wildcats with a win on Friday. If Iowa loses, it would face even more uncertainty.

After Friday’s contest, Iowa hosts Michigan State, who is in the race to win the Big Ten regular-season title. Then the Hawkeyes play at Nebraska, which doesn’t provide much hope, given Iowa’s shortcomings on the road.

That raises the stakes for Friday’s contest at Northwestern.

Scouting Northwestern basketball

Friday will be a clash between two depleted teams.

Iowa is without Owen Freeman for the rest of the season after the big man underwent finger surgery. Drew Thelwell has been in and out of the lineup recently due to an ankle injury, but Iowa coach Fran McCaffery said he expects Thelwell to play on Friday.

Northwestern hasn’t avoided an unfavorable injury situation, either. Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach are both out for the season, both of whom were starters when healthy. Barnhizer was among the best players in the league, averaging 17.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. Meanwhile, Leach packed another scoring punch, averaging 14.3 points per game.

Despite the injury situation, Northwestern has actually found success recently. The Wildcats enter Friday’s matchup off back-to-back road wins, the first of which came in blowout fashion over Ohio State.

The Wildcats are spearheaded by leading scorer Nick Martinelli (20.1 points per game) and sharpshooter Ty Berry. But they’ve also gotten contributions from a supporting cast that includes emerging freshman K.J. Windham.

Northwestern features one of the better defenses in the league by points allowed per game, which could present a challenge for Iowa’s offense. Without Freeman, the Hawkeyes are even more reliant on Payton Sandfort and Dix to score. If they don’t play like stars, Iowa’s offense can suffer.

That was on display in Iowa’s 20-point loss to Illinois on Tuesday. Sandfort and Dix combined for just 18 points as the Hawkeyes scored a season-low 61 points. That came after Illinois had given up at least 95 points in each of its previous two contests.

Update on Owen Freeman’s injury recovery

Freeman is not playing for the remainder of the 2024-25 season. The big man will finish his sophomore campaign averaging 16.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game in 19 appearances.

After undergoing finger surgery in early February, Freeman is in recovery mode.

“He was actually shooting (Wednesday),” McCaffery said of Freeman. “So he was able to catch the ball, shoot the ball. It’s coming well. It’s one of those things where essentially it’s a 2-3 month rehab before you can go out and compete and risk somebody chopping your hand and getting similar situations to happen before it completely heals. But he’s progressing well.”

Iowa vs. Northwestern prediction

Friday is Iowa’s best opportunity to pick up a win for the remainder of the regular season, though KenPom only gives the Hawkeyes a 30% chance. The Michigan State and Nebraska games trail just behind. That’s pretty revealing about what Iowa faces the rest of the way. The Hawkeyes could really use a bounce-back performance from Sandfort on Friday, who was just 2-of-10 from the field against Illinois. 

For a team whose resilience is one of its redeeming qualities, Friday should be another test to Iowa’s character with its Big Ten Tournament life hanging in the balance and considering the team’s road struggles this season. Sandfort described Iowa’s victory over Rutgers on Feb. 12 as a “culture win.” Friday has a chance to be another. Iowa 81, Northwestern 77.

Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at ttachman@gannett.com