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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa on Election Day

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa on Election Day


WASHINGTON (AP) — Iowa has a long history as a presidential battleground state, but when voters cast their ballots in the general election on Nov. 5, it’s the races further down the ballot that may get the most attention.

Voters will decide competitive U.S. House contests that could decide control of the chamber, as well as state legislative races that could hand Iowa Republicans a veto-proof supermajority. They’ll also consider statewide ballot measures that would require citizenship to vote and modify the line of succession for governor.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump will compete for the state’s six electoral votes. Iowa had among the narrowest presidential vote margins in the 2000 and 2004 elections, when it voted for Democrat Al Gore and then for Republican George W. Bush. Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in 2008 and 2012.

Changes in the state’s political leanings since then may have pushed Iowa further out of reach for Democrats. The GOP holds all of Iowa’s congressional seats, the governorship, most statewide offices and lopsided majorities in the state Legislature. Trump won Iowa by comfortable margins in 2016 and 2020. This year, neither candidate nor their running mates have visited Iowa since becoming their parties’ nominees.

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In the race for the closely divided U.S. House, two Republican incumbents face competitive reelection bids. In the 1st District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state senator who lost to Miller-Meeks in 2022 by a 7-point margin. In the 3rd District, Republican Rep. Zach Nunn seeks a second term against Democrat Lanon Baccam, a former USDA administrator. Trump won the Des Moines-area district by a margin of just 0.4 percentage points. Democrats need a net gain of only a few seats to regain control of the U.S. House.

In the state Legislature, Republicans already enjoy large majorities in both chambers and need to pick up a few more state House seats for a supermajority, although they already control the governorship.

Voters will also consider two constitutional amendments. One would prohibit state and local governments from allowing non-citizens to vote and would allow 17-year-olds to vote in primary elections if they will be 18 by the general election. The other measure would clarify the line of succession if the state’s lieutenant governor were to become governor.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Iowa:

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Election Day

Nov. 5.

Poll closing time

9 p.m. ET.

Presidential electoral votes

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6 awarded to statewide winner.

Key races and candidates

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We The People) and two others.

1st Congressional District: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Bohannan (D).

3rd Congressional District: Rep. Nunn (R) vs. Baccam (D).

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Ballot measures: Amendment 1 (require citizenship to vote and modify voting age).

Other races of interest

U.S. House, state Senate, state House and Amendment 2 (modify gubernatorial succession).

Past presidential results

2020: Trump (R) 53%, Biden (D) 45%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 12:21 p.m. ET.

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Voter registration and turnout

Registered voters: 2,223,492 (as of Sep. 3, 2024).

Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 74% of registered voters.

Pre-Election Day voting

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 59% of the total vote.

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Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 30% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

How long does vote-counting take?

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 10:11 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 82% of total votes cast were reported.

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___

Breaux reported from Kansas City, Missouri. Associated Press writers Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

___

Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.



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Iowa businesses will see $1.2 billion unemployment tax cut under bill sent to Kim Reynolds

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Iowa businesses will see .2 billion unemployment tax cut under bill sent to Kim Reynolds


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  • Iowa lawmakers have passed Gov. Kim Reynolds’ bill to cut unemployment taxes for businesses, resulting in more than a $1 billion tax cut over five years.
  • The bill would cut in half the amount of wages on which businesses pay unemployment taxes, as well as lower the maximum unemployment tax rate from 7% to 5.4% and reduce the number of tax tables.
  • Republicans said Iowa’s high unemployment trust fund balance shows the state is over-collecting, while Democrats said the bill gives corporations a tax break and fails to help workers.

Iowa businesses will see a nearly $1.2 billion tax cut on the money they pay into the state’s unemployment trust fund under a proposal lawmakers passed and is headed to Gov. Kim Reynolds for her signature.

In a statement, Reynolds said Iowa’s unemployment tax “has needlessly punished Iowa businesses.”

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“Our unemployment trust fund balance is at an all-time high of nearly $2 billion, while the duration of unemployment claims is at a record low of around nine weeks,” she said. “We’re clearly over-collecting.”

Reynolds called for the unemployment tax cut in her Condition of the State address in January. The bill would cut in half the amount of wages on which businesses pay unemployment taxes, as well as lower the maximum unemployment tax rate from 7% to 5.4% and reduce the number of tax tables.

Those taxes flow into Iowa’s unemployment trust fund, which pays unemployment benefits to workers when they are laid off.

“Passing this bill means nearly $1 billion in savings over five years for Iowa businesses of all sizes,” Reynolds said. “Thank you to our legislators and key stakeholders for their support to help attract new business to Iowa and place existing businesses on a level playing field with our neighboring states.”

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The Iowa Senate voted 32-16 along party lines on May 14 to pass the bill, Senate File 607. House lawmakers followed a few hours later with a party-line vote of 60-27.

Democrats said the bill gives businesses a tax break while doing nothing to help workers.

“Fundamentally, my Democratic colleagues and I do not believe that we should be helping our employers on the backs of our workers,” said Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner, D-Iowa City.

Democrats seek to restore unemployment benefits cut by Republicans in 2022

Democrats argued the tax cuts for employers are possible because of a 2022 law passed by Republicans that cut the maximum number of weeks Iowans can receive benefits from 26 weeks to 16.

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They offered amendments to restore Iowa to 26 weeks of unemployment benefits, or 39 weeks in the case of a plant closure. Republicans voted the proposals down.

Sen. Janet Petersen, D-Des Moines, read a list of Iowa companies that have laid off workers this year.

“These are real Iowans facing real job losses just this year,” she said. “And instead of helping them, you want to pull money out of Iowa’s unemployment insurance system to give another corporate tax break to companies that are laying them off.”

Sen. Adrian Dickey, R-Packwood, said Iowans still get 26 weeks of unemployment benefits if there is a plant closure, although that number is down from 39 weeks before the 2022 law.

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“When a business does close its doors and goes out of business, we have been compassionate about that issue by moving that to six months of unemployment benefits,” he said.

Sen. Molly Donahue, D-Cedar Rapids, urged Republicans to “stand behind workers.”

“Our unemployment system is rigged for the employers, particularly with this bill,” she said. “It is the workers who hold businesses up and we need to do better by those workers, not give even more breaks to the employers who are laying them off.”

Dickey said the 2022 law included changes that has helped Iowa Workforce Development get Iowans back to work sooner after they are laid off, lowering the state’s average unemployment duration to nine weeks.

“The Republican Party has been the party to stand up for Iowa workers,” he said. “We are the party that wants our workers to aspire more than desiring an unemployment check.”

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How much would Iowa employers save in unemployment taxes?

According to an analysis by the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency, businesses would see a $1.18 billion tax cut over five years if the bill becomes law.

That would amount to roughly $200 to $250 million less that businesses pay into the unemployment trust fund each year, according to the agency’s estimates.

  • 2026: $193.2 million
  • 2027: $229.4 million
  • 2028: $241.2 million
  • 2029: $253.5 million
  • 2030: $266.3 million

The Legislative Services Agency estimates that Iowa’s unemployment trust fund balance will rise to $2.06 billion in 2026, the first year lower tax rates would take effect. In 2030, the agency estimates the trust fund balance will stand at $1.78 billion.

Will businesses use the savings to help employees?

The bill says employers should use any savings they receive from the tax cuts to pay for employee salaries or benefits or to use as an alternative to unemployment benefits during periods of seasonal layoffs.

House Democrats tried to amend the bill to make that mandatory.

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Rep. J.D. Scholten, D-Sioux City, said “knowing what you should do and actually doing it are two different things.”

“Coming into session I came with a mindset that I should eat healthy, but that didn’t happen,” Scholten said, getting laughs from his colleagues.

Corporations should take care of workers, he added, “but that’s not reality.”

“Let me be clear: billionaires do not work harder than the working class,” Scholten said. “It’s bills like this that put a thumb on the scale towards billionaires and towards multinational corporations.”

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Rep. David Young, R-Van Meter, said the Democrats’ amendment would create a mandate on businesses and could prevent them from spending money on new equipment or other ways of improving the business.

“While many of us would like to see and encourage employers to use all the savings from the bill on their employees, businesses may need flexibility in difficult economic times,” he said. “And this could actually result in harm to employees instead by tying the hands of employers to strengthen and grow their business.”

Iowa has nearly $2 billion in its unemployment trust fund

Iowa had $1.95 billion in its unemployment trust fund as of May 12.

As of Jan. 1, 2024, Iowa ranked ninth in the country for unemployment trust fund balance, at $1.8 billion, ahead of more populous states.

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Democrats pointed out that Reynolds used $727 million in federal COVID-19 relief funds to shore up the fund during the pandemic.

Sen. Zach Wahls, D-Coralville, said it’s a good thing that Iowa has a high trust fund balance, raising concerns about what could happen if a recession hits.

“When the whole point of the fund is to be ready for a rainy day and you see storm clouds on the horizon, you want that fund to be full,” he said. “Because what you don’t want is to have to raise taxes when you’re headed into a recession to make up for a shortfall.”

Dickey said the unemployment trust fund is structured so that if the fund dips below a certain level, businesses move to a higher tax rate so the fund is replenished.

“I don’t agree that those scenarios are coming from an economic standpoint,” he said. “But if they are, the fund is structured to handle those situations.”

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How does Iowa’s unemployment insurance taxable wage base compare with other states?

Iowa currently taxes businesses on about $39,500 of an employee’s wages.

That ranks Iowa 12th in the country for its taxable wage base for unemployment insurance.

Iowa’s wage base is the second-highest among surrounding states, second to Minnesota ($43,000).

Reynolds’ proposal would cut that number in half, meaning Iowa would tax businesses on about $19,800 of an employee’s wages.

Iowa would still tax more wages than South Dakota ($15,000), Wisconsin ($14,000), Kansas ($14,000), Illinois ($13,916), Missouri ($9,500), Michigan ($9,000) and Nebraska ($9,000).

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The governor’s proposal would also lower the top rate paid by employers from 7% to 5.4%, reducing both the tax itself and the base they pay the taxes on.

(This story was updated because an earlier version included an inaccuracy.)

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on X at @sgrubermiller.





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Pete Buttigieg slams President Trump at Iowa town hall

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Pete Buttigieg slams President Trump at Iowa town hall


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Pete Buttigieg slammed President Trump at a town hall event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, calling his administration an “overbearing government.” Buttigieg went on to say that the “American people bow to no king.”



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Randy Feenstra launches exploratory committee as he weighs gubernatorial run in 2026

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Randy Feenstra launches exploratory committee as he weighs gubernatorial run in 2026


Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra has launched an exploratory committee as he signals strong interest in running for governor of Iowa in 2026.

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“Since Governor (Kim) Reynolds announced her decision not to seek re-election, Iowans from every corner of the state and walk of life have asked me to run,” he said in a statement Tuesday, May 13. “The outpouring of encouragement and my desire to continue giving back to our great state has brought me to today’s announcement. I want to thank Governor Reynolds for her strong, conservative leadership for Iowa.”

Feenstra is in his third term representing Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, which spans 36 counties in northwest Iowa and along the full western edge of the state. It is, by far, the state’s most conservative congressional district, which could give him an edge with likely Republican primary voters.

He won the seat in 2020 after ousting longtime U.S. Rep. Steve King in a Republican primary. And he handily won reelection in 2022 and 2024 as an incumbent.

Feenstra filed the paperwork necessary for a gubernatorial campaign May 12 with Iowa’s Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board.

In a release, he touted his commitment to supporting Republican President Donald Trump’s agenda.

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“I’ve stood with President Trump and fought against Joe Biden’s radical policies,” he said in a statement. “I’ve led the fight to stop Communist China from buying our farmland and backed President Trump every step of the way as we’ve secured the border. I’m fighting every day to renew the Trump Tax Cuts, protect the family budget, and support our main street businesses. As governor, I will stand with President Trump, defeat the left, and help usher in America’s next golden age.”

He said he will begin raising money and having conversations with Iowans around the state.

If Feenstra does enter the race, he would do so with a strong financial advantage. He’s legally allowed to transfer the money from his congressional fundraising accounts into a state campaign for governor. He reported ending the last quarter with about $1.6 million in cash on hand that could help seed a gubernatorial campaign.

The seat opened after Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds made a surprise announcement in April that she would not seek reelection in 2026.

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Former Republican state Rep. Brad Sherman had said prior to Reynolds’ announcement that he would run for governor.

Multiple other Republicans have signaled their interest in the race since Reynolds’ announcement. They include Attorney General Brenna Bird, state Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig, state Sen. Mike Bousselot, House Speaker Pat Grassley and state Rep. Bobby Kaufmann. Bousselot has also launched a formal exploratory committee.

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Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand announced May 12 he would seek his party’s nomination.

Sand also enters the race with a sizeable financial advantage. He announced at the end of last year he had raised more than $8 million. And he announced May 13 that his campaign had raised $2.25 million in his campaign’s first 24 hours.

Democrats sought to undermine Feenstra’s potential candidacy after news broke that he had filed paperwork with the state.

“Whether in Washington or Des Moines, Congressman Randy Feenstra has been a reliable foot soldier for the misguided partisans and insiders ruining our state,” Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said in a statement. “Meanwhile, Iowa is now 49th in economic growth and losing manufacturing jobs while Rep. Feenstra has failed to deliver a farm bill, voted to gut Medicaid, and supported Iowa’s unaccountable voucher program that’s jeopardizing Iowa’s fiscal budget. We need a new direction and Randy Feenstra is just more of the same failed leadership.”

Feenstra is scheduled to hold his annual fundraiser, the Feenstra Family Picnic, May 30 in Sioux Center alongside U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

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Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on X at @brianneDMR.



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