3 keys, prediction for Iowa football against Illinois

Illinois’s Chase Brown (2) runs in opposition to Indiana’s Tiawan Mullen (3) in the course of the first half of an NCAA faculty soccer sport Friday, Sept. 2, 2022, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photograph/Darron Cummings)

The final time Iowa went to Illinois in a season unaffected by COVID-19, the Hawkeyes walked away with a 63-0 blowout win.

This time, Iowa might be arriving because the underdog. Illinois is a 3.5-point favourite, as of Wednesday night.

Illinois is off to its finest begin since 2015, and Iowa has appeared removed from impeccable via 5 video games. The Hawkeyes are a hundred and thirtieth out of 131 groups in whole offense, and their protection has outscored the offense in two of the three wins this season.

Listed here are three keys for Iowa to win its first Huge Ten sport of the season:

Can Iowa’s protection cease Illinois working again Chase Brown?

Michigan’s Blake Corum put up 133 dashing yards on 29 carries in opposition to Iowa final week.

This week, Iowa is going through one other proficient working again — Illinois’ Chase Brown.

“We’re going in opposition to one of many nation’s finest working backs,” mentioned Seth Wallace, Iowa’s linebackers coach and assistant defensive coordinator.

Brown has an FBS-best 733 dashing yards via 5 video games.

He has the advantage of a succesful offensive line forward of him, however he can nonetheless make performs on his personal. He averages 3.5 yards after contact, per Professional Soccer Focus. (Iowa’s dashing assault, as compared, averages 2.8 yards per carry, earlier than or after contact.)

“You bought to think about that even when issues are blocked up and also you’ve obtained it matched up actual nicely, {that a} man like that may nonetheless do injury to you,” Wallace mentioned.

Does Spencer Petras have sufficient time to throw the ball?

Illinois has a status of stifling the run this 12 months.

Wisconsin had simply 2 dashing yards on 24 makes an attempt in opposition to the Illini final week. Even when excluding quarterback Graham Mertz’s 5 sacks, Wisconsin would’ve solely had 31 dashing yards on 19 makes an attempt.

Wisconsin working again Braelon Allen, who had 104 yards on 20 carries final 12 months in opposition to Iowa, by no means ran for greater than 3 yards on a carry in opposition to Illinois within the 34-10 loss.

Iowa, in the meantime, has struggled to determine the run.

The Hawkeyes will want important contributions from quarterback Spencer Petras, however he won’t have a lot time to throw the ball in opposition to Illinois’ cross rush.

Illinois has a Huge Ten-best 3.2 sacks per sport, and Iowa has allowed 2.6 sacks per sport — the second-worst charge within the Huge Ten, with Nebraska being the one worse staff.

Third-and-2 or third-and-11?

Iowa has been one of many worst groups within the FBS at changing on third down. At 29.7 p.c, the Hawkeyes rank 122nd within the nation.

It doesn’t assist that Iowa usually finds itself in third-and-long conditions. It’s an issue that has worsened because the season has progressed.

The common third-down distance to achieve a primary down has elevated from week to week. Towards South Dakota State, it was 6.7 yards. Towards Michigan, it was 10.4 yards.

Fewer third-down conversions have after all led to shorter drives and extra time for the offense. Iowa ranks 112th within the nation in common time of possession. The extra time Iowa’s protection is on the sector, the more durable it can doubtless be to cease Chase Brown.

What’s at stake

A win would give Iowa the tiebreaker over Illinois within the hunt for a Huge Ten West crown. Bowl eligibility wouldn’t appear to be a significant concern for a 4-2 Iowa staff.

A division title nonetheless would technically be doable after a loss, but it surely’d be extremely inconceivable. No Huge Ten staff has received its division with three losses for the reason that East-West setup took impact in 2014, and Iowa has No. 3 Ohio State on the schedule after the bye week.

A loss additionally can be a reminder to not take bowl eligibility as a right. If the Hawkeyes can’t beat Illinois (and fall to 3-3), there aren’t many simpler video games left on the schedule.

The Hawkeyes would doubtless must beat Northwestern and Nebraska after which beat one of many following three groups — Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin — to go to a bowl in the event that they don’t win in opposition to the Illini.

Prediction

Illinois is a far cry from No. 4 Michigan, however a few of Illinois’ strengths align with what Michigan did to floor the Hawkeyes. This might go right down to the previous couple of possessions.

Iowa 14, Illinois 13

Feedback: john.steppe@thegazette.com