Midwest
Iowa pollster Ann Selzer suggests her data could have galvanized Republican voters into proving it wrong
Pollster J. Ann Selzer suggested her pre-election Iowa poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead had “energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters” to prove it wrong in her post-mortem Thursday.
Her Des Moines Register/Mediacom shock poll showed a 7-point shift from President-elect Donald Trump to Harris from September, when he had a 4-point lead over the vice president (47% to 43%), to Saturday when she was up 3 (47% to 44%), in a state Trump had carried easily in 2016 and 2020 and hadn’t been considered a swing state in 2024.
Much of the media took her words as gospel, as pundits on MSNBC, CNN and ABC’s “The View” all celebrated the forecast, hoping it was a positive sign for Harris on Election Day. After the results came in, Trump supporters and conservatives quickly slammed and mocked Selzer’s poll.
Selzer wrote in an op-ed for the Des Moines Register that she had been getting bombarded with criticism and questions. In response, she suggested her poll itself may have shifted the state for Trump.
A farmer shows support for Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and a view on abortion on August 10, 2024, near Hawkeye, Iowa. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
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“My inbox and my voice mail have been full of questions the last few days — those who wanted to know why I ‘manipulated’ the data to show a false Harris lead, and those who wondered if the data were too good to be true,” Selzer wrote.
She continued, “In response to a critique that I ‘manipulated’ the data, or had been paid (by some anonymous source, presumably on the Democratic side), or that I was exercising psyops or some sort of voter suppression: I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory. Maybe that’s what happened.”
Selzer added that her team is working to review what happened and “raise any plausible question” about the data. She also admitted she “had a sense of the late shift” after listening to voters in the days leading up to the election.
President-elect Donald Trump won the state of Iowa by over 10 points on Tuesday. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
“The last few days featured proportionately more women who had been consistent Democratic voters opting for Trump. Absent was a counterpart of consistent Republican voters opting for Harris, the kind of cohort led nationally by Liz Cheney. A few months ago, one woman still making up her mind said something that has stuck with me. Trump disgusted her, but Harris scared her. I doubt I can find data that can reveal how common these thoughts were,” Selzer wrote. “But I will go looking, both to confirm or deny the underlying theory.”
Despite emphasizing her team reviewing the data, Selzer defended her methods, insisting they have not changed since the last presidential election.
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“My philosophy in public opinion research is to take my best shot at revealing the truth of a future event, in this case Election Day. Without fear or favor, we used the same method as the final poll this year to show a healthy Trump lead in both 2020 and 2016. Those turned out to capture the mood of the electorate reasonably well, though both took fire from Iowans who doubted the findings could be true,” she wrote.
Selzer suggested Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of Trump by 3% in Iowa. (AP/Alex Brandon/Mike Stewart)
Trump won Iowa’s 6 electoral votes Tuesday night by a comfortable 13-point margin, 56% to 43%.
Fox News’ Brian Flood contributed to this report.
Read the full article from Here
A shooting in north Minneapolis injured a man near Penn Avenue.
According to the Minneapolis Police Department, officers responded to a shooting near the 700th block of Penn Avenue North, where they found a man with a gunshot wound.
Authorities said preliminary information shows that the man was outside when the shooting happened, possibly coming from a vehicle. A nearby hospital treated the man for non-life-threatening injuries.
Police are still investigating, with a forensic team collecting evidence from the scene. Officers said no arrests have been made.
This is a developing story; check back for updates.
TODAY
Patchy fog early gives way to a partly sunny, warmer, and much less active day. Highs reach the mid to upper 80s, with a light south breeze around 5 mph. After the unsettled Saturday, this looks like a far more usable day for outdoor plans, with most of central Indiana staying dry from start to finish.
TONIGHT
Mostly clear early, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy toward daybreak. Lows hold in the low 70s, with a light south southeast breeze around 5 mph. Humidity stays elevated overnight, but quiet weather continues and there are no meaningful travel concerns.
TOMORROW
Mostly sunny and hot with highs pushing into the low 90s. A south southwest breeze around 5 to 10 mph keeps the air moving, but the bigger story is the heat and humidity building in. Heat index values around or above 100 are possible during the afternoon, so outdoor plans will need extra water and more breaks.
TOMORROW NIGHT
Mostly clear and warm, with lows around the mid 70s and a light south southwest breeze. There will be very little cooling after sunset, and the muggy feel hangs on through the night. Dry weather remains in place.
TUESDAY
Sunny and even hotter, with highs in the low to mid 90s and a light southwest breeze around 5 mph. This is another day where heat becomes the main impact, and it will not take long to feel it during the afternoon. Outdoor work and summer activities will need to be paced carefully.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Clear and warm again, with lows in the mid 70s and a light southwest wind. The air remains sticky overnight, and there is still no meaningful rain signal for Indianapolis.
WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny and hot, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Wind stays light, becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Heat remains the main concern, and another uncomfortable summer afternoon is expected across central Indiana.
7 DAY FORECAST
After Saturday’s leftover storm chances fade away, the pattern flips quickly toward heat and humidity. Sunday looks quieter and warmer, then Monday through at least Wednesday trend hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values over 100 possible at times. Rain chances stay very low through midweek, with the next better opportunity for showers and storms showing up later Thursday into Friday. Overall, the bigger concern after tonight becomes summer heat rather than repeated storm chances.
If you’re currently going through a bit of Cleveland Cavaliers withdrawal, you won’t have to wait much longer. Sure, you won’t see Donovan Mitchell or Evan Mobley, but some of the younger, intriguing players could be seeing the floor in the NBA’s Las Vegas Summer League 2026.
This summer, the games will begin on Thursday, July 9th, and go through Sunday, July 19th. All 76 games will air across ESPN platforms and Amazon Prime. Each team will play at least five games. The first four will take place between July 9th-16th. Semi-Final games will take place on Saturday, July 18th, airing on Amazon Prime, with the Championship game airing on July 19th on ESPN.
The Cleveland Cavaliers Schedule:
The Cavs will kick off their Summer League schedule on Friday, July 10th at 4:30 PM EST vs the Indiana Pacers. The game will air on ESPN2. Their schedule of games will be listed below.
Friday, July 10, 4:30 PM EST vs the Indiana Pacers at the Cox Pavilion, airing on ESPN 2.
Sunday, July 12, 4:00 PM EST vs the Detroit Pistons at the Thomas & Mack Center, airing on Amazon Prime
Monday, July 13, 8:00 PM EST vs the Miami Heat at the Cox Pavilion, airing on Amazon Prime
Wednesday, July 15, 5:30 PM EST vs the New Orleans Pelicans at the Cox Pavilion, airing on Amazon Prime
The Cavs will find out their 5th opponent after their first four games are completed, and will see if they are to move on to the semi-finals for the final weekend.
The Cavaliers Potential Summer League Roster:
While the roster should be announced in a few days, the Cavaliers have been building organizational depth, starting with drafting Meleek Thomas in the second round of the 2026 NBA Draft. The team reportedly signed Ernest Udeh, Jr. out of Miami (FL) to a two-way contract and has added Texas A&M forward Rashaun Agee, and Florida guard Xavian Lee to Exhibit 10 contracts.
Tyrese Proctor is also a possibility to play for the team, but we know he will be playing with the Australian national team this summer. Expect fellow two-way player Tristan Enaruna to play as well but the Cavs may need to fill their final two-way spot as Riley Minix has been reported to sign with ASVEL in France.
Summer League is a great opportunity for players to get eyes on them and show their potential. This is also how the Cavs have succeeded over the years, finding diamonds in the rough who contribute to the main roster down the road. Let’s see if the Cavaliers find another hidden gem in a few weeks.
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