Indianapolis, IN
NFL Week 15 Predictions: Best Bets for Colts vs Vikings, Ravens vs Browns, More
NFL Week 15 Predictions (Saturday)
Ricky Henne: The sharps love Indianapolis on this spot with roughly 80% of the cash on the Colts. I agree as I see a number of paths during which Indianapolis can at naked minimal cowl.
The Vikings group have wildly outperformed anticipated outcomes, as they rank second in luck proportion (23.7%). 9 of their 10 wins had been one-score video games, with their lone victory by greater than eight factors coming all the best way again in Week 1. Even crazier, they’ve a destructive level differential (-1) regardless of a 10-3 report.
A key to slowing Minnesota down is limiting Justin Jefferson after the catch. The Offensive Participant of the Yr candidate leads the league in receiving yards (1,500) with 509 coming after the catch. That’s tops amongst large receivers by a wholesome margin.
Nevertheless, the Colts are the uncommon group able to slowing him down as they provide up the second-fewest yards after the catch (10.0). Indy additionally surrenders the third-fewest yards per recreation by way of the air (188.6), so if it may restrict Minnesota’s explosive performs, I like their possibilities to maintain it shut.
In the meantime, that is the occasional recreation during which even Indianapolis’ lowly offense has an opportunity to maneuver the ball. Minnesota is final in yards per recreation (403.7) and passing yards per recreation (287.2). If the Colts offense can’t click on in opposition to the Vikings, they may as nicely pack it up for the remainder of the season.
The Colts are a scrappy bunch since Jeff Saturday took over as interim head coach, save for that disastrous fourth quarter a pair weeks again in opposition to the Cowboys.
The road has dipped right down to +3.5 because the week’s progressed, however I’m nonetheless backing Saturday’s crew to – pardon the pun that you simply’ve seemingly heard advert nauseum – cowl on Saturday.
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Dylan Wilkerson: Vikings punter Ryan Wright is without doubt one of the finest within the NFL, and the one one who has but to have a punt finish in a touchback. That’s proper, not a single touchback. Not solely that, however he pins the opponent inside their very own 20-yard line nearly 50% of the time. Although a punting stat like this isn’t sufficient to warrant a finest guess, it’s value noting!
The Colts offense has been anemic all season. Between teaching adjustments and quarterback controversy, they’ll’t appear to get something going. They’re averaging lower than 5 yards per play, and are within the backside third of the league in red-zone conversion price and third-down conversion price. Though the Vikings protection is subpar, I don’t anticipate the Colts to mild it up on this matchup.
Opposite to standard perception, the Vikings offense has not lived as much as the hype. They’re averaging lower than seven yards per cross try, and just below 5 yards per rush try.
The Colts protection is the one factor retaining them afloat. They’re at present permitting lower than two factors per drive, and 188 passing yards per recreation (third lowest).
I will probably be fading the overrated Vikings offense and precisely rated Colts offense!
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Brandon Anderson: This Saturday afternoon recreation is considered one of my favourite spots of the week.
The deal with this recreation would be the QBs for either side. Deshaun Watson has been horrible since returning, main the offense to a meager 16 factors in eight quarters. Cleveland isn’t passing it nicely, and now the run recreation is stalling too. However with a December recreation in Cleveland and these two run-first offenses, the run recreation issues way over the QBs.
That’s why the important thing distinction right here is the run defenses. Cleveland has not been capable of cease the run all season, however the Ravens rank first in run protection since buying Roquan Smith. Add in J.Ok. Dobbins as an actual distinction maker for Baltimore’s run recreation, and that swings this within the Ravens’ favor.
You received’t discover many traits backing Cleveland. Kevin Stefansky is 9-17 ATS (35%) as a favourite, together with 1-7 ATS as a division favourite. Watson is 10-15-2 ATS (40%) as a favourite and hasn’t earned favourite standing but in his return. John Harbaugh is 17-7-1 ATS (71%) as a division canine, and AFC North underdogs are 41-22-1 ATS (65%) in division video games from Week 14 ahead.
The Ravens have received 24 of the final 29 on this “rivalry,” and I see little motive to anticipate some other final result right here.
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John LanFranca: One other out of doors divisional recreation, so you realize what which means — the beneath is the play. Unders have been cashing for bettors at a 67% clip this season and now we get the No. 2 protection (based on DVOA) since Week 10 within the Ravens.
Since Week 7, the Ravens rush protection has been elite, permitting solely 2.77 yards per carry to opposing ball carriers. With out the assistance of the operating recreation, I’m skeptical DeShaun Watson is able to make sufficient performs to ship this over the full. Watson has struggled badly since his return in each the purple zone and on third down, finishing fewer than 35% of his passes in each high-leverage conditions.
The Ravens haven’t any explosive component to their offense, rating thirty first in variety of explosive passing performs this season. They might have success dashing in opposition to the Browns, however most likely simply sufficient to maintain the clock operating, which in flip will shorten the sport and preserve their protection recent.
Eight of the final 10 video games during which Baltimore has performed have gone beneath the full. That is going to be one other grind that doesn’t function a lot scoring. I’m gladly taking part in this beneath till the important thing variety of 37.
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Sean Koerner: After posting a dashing line of 14/64/0 in Week 13, Prepare dinner adopted up with a really disappointing Week 14 during which he solely rushed for 4/6/0.
Nevertheless, his taking part in time remained the identical as his Week 13 breakout (41% snap price). Final week, he was a sufferer of …
1) The Payments passing extra when he was in on early downs.
2) Buffalo being dominated in time of possession.
Each components will seemingly shift in Prepare dinner’s favor in Week 15. There’s additionally seemingly going to be snow and wind within the forecast, main the Payments to a run-heavy recreation script.
I believe Prepare dinner will probably be sneaky in snowy situations contemplating he has one of many lowest EFF rankings on NextGenStats. EFF is a stat that measures the full distance a participant travels per dashing yard gained. Prepare dinner’s ranking signifies a really environment friendly, north-south operating fashion that I’ve discovered to be precious in snowy situations.
I’m projecting Prepare dinner’s median nearer to 33.5 yards and I really like his upside this week.
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Matt Trebby: Given the projected forecast in Orchard Park, it’s going to be troublesome to throw the soccer — to say the least.
The Payments seem to have the sting on the bottom over the Dolphins, with Singletary and rookie James Prepare dinner rising as a robust one-two punch. Miami’s protection ranks eighth in DVOA in opposition to the run, however these are snowy situations it won’t be used to.
Singletary has gone over this complete in 9 of his 13 video games this season, together with 4 of his final 5. His solely beneath in that five-game stretch noticed him fall simply brief with 39 dashing yards.
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Matt Trebby: Prepare dinner has been getting quite a lot of hype, and his snap counts have elevated of late, changing into nearly degree with Singletary over the past two weeks. In a recreation like this, although, it might make sense to go together with the veteran on the bottom who has performed by way of them a lot earlier than.
There’s nonetheless a solution to again Prepare dinner, although. He’s gone over his receiving yards complete in two of his final three video games, and the one beneath was final week when he had his second-highest snap proportion of the season.
The acquisition of Nyheim Hines appeared to probably doom Prepare dinner’s position, however that hasn’t been the case. Prepare dinner was drafted to be the pass-catching complement to Singletary, and it seems like that’s what he has turn into.
The Payments normally thrive passing the ball down the sphere, however which may not be attainable given the situations. It might make sense for Prepare dinner to be very energetic as a receiver, whereas Singletary handles the majority of the bottom work.
Raybon initiatives Singletary for 47 dashing yards on Saturday night time, and he has Prepare dinner projected for 19.2 receiving yards in comparison with his line of 12.5, creating two clear methods to again every of Buffalo’s prime operating backs.
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Brandon Anderson: Sportsbooks appear to suppose the MVP race is down to 2 males. Jalen Hurts is the odds-on favourite, and Patrick Mahomes is the one different man inside shouting distance.
Personally, I believe these odds ought to be reversed, however that’s a column for one more day. Extra importantly, I don’t suppose it is a two-man race simply but.
We all know the components for an NFL MVP; I wrote about it earlier than the season. We’re on the lookout for a quarterback who wins 13-plus video games, makes a run on the 1-seed, pushes 4,500 yards, 40-plus touchdowns and is at or close to the highest of the EPA and EPA + CPOE ranks.
There isn’t one candidate who checks each field. Hurts could or could not hit the statistical marks, relying on how voters weigh his dashing stats. He’s seemingly received the wins and the 1-seed, however he comes up shockingly brief on the superior metrics. Mahomes has the numbers and metrics, and sure the wins, however he’s not in place for the 1-seed.
That’s as a result of the Payments are the 1-seed proper now and management their future, and that’s why I believe Josh Allen continues to be an actual MVP risk.
Sure, Allen has fallen off. Via six video games, Allen threw for 17 TDs and just below 2,000 yards with solely 4 picks, culminating with a head-to-head win over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, an essential tiebreaker for the 1-seed and — perhaps — the MVP.
Allen has thrown solely 9 TDs and 1,573 yards within the seven video games since. That features seven interceptions, a couple of back-breakers that instantly value the Payments a pair video games.
However the reality is Allen can be the largest motive Buffalo was in these video games within the first place. Allen is as a lot the rationale the Payments have survived this midseason swoon as the rationale for the dip. He’s doing every part for this offense. What number of instances have you ever seen the Payments flip to Previous Trustworthy, with Allen operating as a result of the group has no different solutions?
It’s onerous to discover a extra precious participant to what his group does, and the truth that the Payments are nonetheless the 1-seed within the uber-competitive AFC even after a two-month dip exhibits simply how good Allen is. Extra importantly, it additionally units Allen up for a memorable closing month that might give him a push for the MVP.
Folks bear in mind scorching begins and massive finishes — that gooey center can typically get misplaced within the wash. Buffalo is about as much as end with a flourish. The Payments host the Dolphins Saturday night time in snowy Highmark Stadium, the place Buffalo is primed for an enormous win. After that, it’s a recreation in opposition to the corpse of Chicago’s protection, after which it’s the massive one — a street journey to face the red-hot Bengals.
If Allen and the Payments lose that, kiss this guess goodbye. However whereas Mahomes is compiling numbers in opposition to unhealthy groups down the stretch with none actual likelihood for an MVP second, that Week 17 recreation between the Payments and Bengals would be the closing main AFC domino that units the entire playoff image.
If Allen beats a Bengals group taking part in in addition to anybody to successfully clinch the 1-seed and reassure Buffalo’s standing as a Tremendous Bowl favourite, Allen will probably be thrust again into the MVP race in a rush.
A do-everything QB with 13-plus wins, the 1-seed and all of the numbers? These midseason interceptions will probably be shortly written off as “Hey, bear in mind when Allen was damage with that elbow damage?” Don’t overlook Allen would have head-to-head wins over Mahomes and Joe Burrow and a far sexier case than Hurts.
Allen additionally has a very good likelihood to complete prime two in each EPA and EPA + CPOE with an enormous end, behind solely Mahomes.
The Payments are 51% to win the AFC 1-seed, per Soccer Outsiders. That’s higher than coin-flip odds that we’re betting on the all-world QB on a 1-seed. That alone offers us an opportunity, particularly if the Eagles stumble. Add in an enormous end with memorable wins and an MVP second in Cincinnati, and we’re cooking.
I can’t get wherever close to +2500 on Allen. He’s far too good, too precious to be this a lot of an extended shot because the famous person on a 1-seed with beneath a month left. We’ve to play Allen for MVP and hope for an enormous end.