Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction, pick for NFL Week 10 on Sunday 11/09/25
Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 10’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Atlanta Falcons.
Berlin finally gets its first regular-season NFL game at Olympiastadion, with Indianapolis designated as the host for a true neutral-site theater. The kick lands at 3:30 p.m. local—a breakfast window here at home, crisply stamped for 9:30 a.m. ET—so coffee meets kickoff while two seasons ask to be defined. The place will pulse: at least 72,000 in the bowl after million-plus ticket requests turned the week into a citywide event. The surface won’t steal the script, either, because a stitched hybrid bluegrass field went in this summer to meet NFL specifications. Atlanta arrives having reset at kicker to steady late-game decisions, while Indianapolis leans into the “host” cadence and a stage designed to feel like January. Atlanta’s late-week pivot to Zane Gonzalez after Parker Romo’s missed extra point resets fourth-down calculus and red-zone nerve. Indianapolis arrives off a 27–20 defeat scarred by six turnovers and an utterly and horrifically human Daniel Jones, sharpening a ball-security mandate on Berlin’s fast, trustworthy surface. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 10’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Atlanta Falcons.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The edges start where film meets math. Atlanta brings heat at 52.2% with a 39.9% pressure rate, a 53.5% pass-rush win rate, and twenty-four sacks. Indianapolis answers with 25.3% pressure allowed and nine sacks surrendered, so protection governs cadence before snap one. The Colts rank fourth in neutral pass rate and keep calling it if the score stays tight. Coverage tilts the route tree because Atlanta lives in 75.8% zone and only 21.0% man. Drake London punishes zone with 191 routes for forty and five-thirty-four, while man has yielded seven for fifty-three on fifty-six routes. Indianapolis toggles roughly one-quarter man and two-thirds zone and squeezes man explosives to 11.8% with a 37.0% first-down or touchdown clip.
Alec Pierce led targets last week and owns a 20.4 aDOT, while other primary options sit below 9.0. That depth forces a safety to honor the roof and frees Michael Pittman Jr. to carve glance, dig, and deep out. Against man sprinkles, Pittman sits at eleven for one-oh-five on sixty-one routes, while Pierce owns six for one-twenty-two on fifty-four. Sauce Gardner’s arrival tightens third downs and red-zone leverage, letting Indianapolis keep a safety honest and choke stagnant isolations. Atlanta must earn releases through motion, stacks, and bunch, then pivot to crossers and backs underneath.
Jonathan Taylor carries an RB1 projection on a 113.5 total-yards baseline and fits duo and inside-zone into light boxes. Indianapolis sustains 383.3 yards per game and keeps second-and-manageable alive. Atlanta counters with Bijan Robinson’s outlet access because Indianapolis has allowed forty-one catches and two-seventy-three to backs. Availability trims ceilings both ways: DeForest Buckner sits out, while Matthew Bergeron and Storm Norton are out and Chris Lindstrom battled late-week limitations, with Kaleb McGary on injured reserve. Zane Gonzalez replaces the kicker after a one-point loss and brings an 80.0% career rate with a long of fifty-seven. Indianapolis arrives off six turnovers that should regress toward a cleaner sheet. In this exchange, third-and-four becomes the truth test, not third-and-ten.
Falcons vs. Colts pick, best bet
The counterargument wears pads and breathes fire. Atlanta can squeeze play-action depth and pull a premium projection down into the mid-twenties; a 43% pass-rush win rate (6th) attacking a line with a 57% pass-block win rate (25th), paired with −0.02 defensive EPA/play and a 44.69% success rate allowed, creates honest turbulence. Drake London keeps chains alive when coverages soften; Atlanta sits in zone on roughly 76% of snaps, and he leads the team with 10.13 targets per game and 587 receiving yards. A stable first swing from Zane Gonzalez can also calm the fringes; he carries an 80.0% career field-goal clip on 96 of 120 with a long of 57. Third-down defense lives in the top-ten band at about 36% allowed, which drags snap counts if first-down runs land. That path gains credibility with Indianapolis’ four-man rush trimmed by absences: the defense sits at −0.04 EPA/play with a 6.68% sack rate, and DeForest Buckner is out.
I still back Indianapolis because stability beats volatility on neutral grass. The Colts anchor the plan with 25.3% pressure allowed and only nine sacks; that protection marries to an offense at 0.18 EPA/play (1st) with a 50.09% success rate and a 4.29% sack rate. The coverage menu answers both zone spacing and man emergencies, and Sauce Gardner now erases the opponent’s best access point on money downs; the defense has allowed 45.63% success, posted a 2.57% interception rate, and historically held man-look explosives to 11.8%. Identity shows up everywhere: a top-tier neutral pass rate and a 27.5 team total, plus 32.2 points per game and 383.3 yards per game (2nd). Atlanta’s interior strain meets a defense comfortable heating pockets and spot-dropping behind it; with zone near 76%, a 43% rush win rate, and a 29.4 seconds-per-snap pace that suppresses volume when trailing, the Falcons must thread a thinner needle. Indianapolis can keep stacking second-and-manageable and win the possession math; the Colts’ third-down offense grades in the top-ten neighborhood and the red-zone touchdown rate sits at 71.4% (5th).
I’m laying the points with Indianapolis; a 25.3% pressure-allowed spine and Sauce Gardner’s clamps flip third downs and red-zone truth. A fourth-ranked neutral pass rate and 71.4% red-zone touchdowns sustain drives on neutral grass while Atlanta chases answers. Colts −6.5 is the bet, 27–19 on my card, with steady chains, fewer negative plays, and Alec Pierce’s depth keeping safeties stretched.
Final: Colts 27, Falcons 19. Colts win big in Berlin.
Best bet: Colts -6.5 (-110) vs. Falcons
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
For a prop lean, I’m playing Bijan Robinson 6+ receptions at +140 fits the geometry and the math. Indianapolis has allowed 41 running-back catches for 273 yards, about 5.1 targets per game to backs, and they toggle 23.8% man with 68.4% zone that encourages swings and arrows over stubborn boundary shots. Sauce Gardner’s arrival tightens outside access, so Atlanta should funnel early-down rhythm to Robinson and lean on designed screens when Indianapolis sits in shell. The morning stage rewards patience, and Atlanta’s 29.4 seconds per snap sustains outlet volume when chasing possessions. Robinson just drew 10 targets and caught 8 last week, a usage spike that matches this environment. With a spread hovering near Colts −6.5, two-minute sequences should add another look or two late. At 7–8 targets, last week’s 80% catch clip yields 5.6–6.4 receptions, which clears 6+ often enough to justify +140.
Best prop lean: Bijan Robinson 6+ receptions (+140)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
According to a few different rankings, here are the best available NFL free agent defenders for the Indianapolis Colts.
As the Indianapolis Colts attempt to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, free agency will have to be a big part of that equation.
The Colts will have money to spend this offseason. According to Over the Cap, the Colts have $45.77 million in available cap space. Compared to the rest of the NFL, this is the ninth-most in football currently.
As GM Chris Ballard said on Thursday, salary cap-wise, the Colts are in “good shape.”
The Colts also have the ability to create more cap room if needed.
Last offseason, we saw Ballard take a much more aggressive approach in free agency. From the sounds of it, he will “continue down that path” this offseason.
There are always reasons to address just about every position group over the course of an offseason, but two specific areas Ballard mentioned on Thursday were the defensive front and getting faster on defense as a whole.
So, with a focus on the defense, specifically the front seven, here are the top available free agents this offseason at those positions.
Best available 2026 NFL free agents on defense for Indianapolis Colts
- DE Trey Hendrickson
- DE Jaelan Phillips
- IDL John Franklin-Myers
- LB Quay Walker
- LB Devin Lloyd
- DE Odafe Oweh
- DE Boye Mafe
- LB Nakobe Dean
- DE Joey Bosa
- IDL Travis Jones
- DE Khalil Mack
- LB Demario Davis
- DE Kyle Van Noy
- IDL Teair Tart
- IDL DaQuan Jones
*This list was compiled by rankings from Sports Illustrated, The Ringer, and Bleacher Report
INDIANAPOLIS – Confidence remains high.
Carlie Irsay-Gordon made that clear Sunday night when she announced the Indianapolis Colts would move forward under the direction of general manager Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen.
And Ballard reinforced that conviction during Thursday’s postscript following an 8-9 record and fifth consecutive season without a playoff appearance.
“It wasn’t all negative,’’ he insisted. “I mean, 8-2 is real.
“That was not a mirage. It wasn’t. We were humming. We were playing good football.’’
After outlasting the Atlanta Falcons in overtime in Berlin Nov. 9, the Colts returned home 8-2.
“I mean, I would have told you when we got back from Germany . . . we had a top-four team in the league,’’ Ballard said. “I believe that. Still believe that.
“But losing seven in a row is losing seven in a row. That’s not what top-four teams do. And that’s reality. That’s the facts.’’
Here’s another undeniable fact: The Colts’ confidence moving forward is rooted in Daniel Jones.
Simple as that.
Yes, the edge pass rush wasn’t nearly good enough and a legitimate bookend for Laiatu Latu is critical. A free-agent acquisition should be a priority.
Yes, the defense must, as Ballard stressed, get younger and faster. The 2026 front-seven won’t resemble the 2025 front-seven.
And yes, the Colts must be able to run the ball better even when situations aren’t favorable. During the seven-game losing streak, which was fueled by injuries to Jones, Jonathan Taylor averaged 63.7 yards per game and 3.3 per attempt.
But if Jones isn’t the answer, nothing much else matters.
There are two significant issues with Jones that would be major impediments to a continued relationship in any other scenario.
Jones:
- Will be an unrestricted free agent in March.
- Tore his right Achilles Dec. 7, underwent surgery Dec. 9 and faces an arduous rehab. He expects to be ready for the start of training camp in late July. That would represent an 8½-month rehab.
“We’ll attack the process and make sure I’m ready to go,’’ Jones said Monday.
“I’m not a doctor and I’m not God in terms of knowing what the future is going to hold in his healing,’’ Ballard said. “ . . . the history of guys coming back has been pretty good and they’ve been older than Daniel.
“He’s a pretty freaky talent in terms of athletic ability. So no, I do feel confident that he will make it back. Will he be the version you saw (last season) right away? Maybe not, but he’s still going to be really good. I think as he goes along and plays, he’ll be fine.
“I know . . . he’s going to give every ounce of his being into being the best he can be to be ready.’’
But first things first, and that means signing him to an extension.
At the risk of assuming too much, that almost assuredly will be done.
“I’d love to be back here,’’ Jones said.
The feeling is mutual.
Ballard was asked if the Colts were committed to retaining Jones “come hell or high water.’’
He smiled.
“Well, hell or high water is a strong word, but we would like . . . it’s mutual on both sides,’’ he said. “I think Daniel was a really good fit for this organization and I think this organization and city were a really good fit for Daniel.’’
A multi-year deal could mirror that of contracts secured by Sam Darnold in Seattle (three-years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed) or Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay (three years, $100 million, $50 million guaranteed).
Ballard admitted Jones’ Achilles injury and rehab will impact negotiations, “but we’ll work through that with his agent. He’s got a really good agent.
“We’ll find a way to work through that.’’
If common ground can’t be reached – that probably means guaranteed money – the Colts always could use the franchise tag to retain Jones. The projected 2026 tag for quarterbacks is roughly $46 million guaranteed.
Jones turns 29 in May, which can be the midpoint of a quarterback’s career.
A reinvestment in Jones will represent short- and long-term stability at a position that’s been in flux since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement two weeks before the 2019 season.
“I’m looking at him both: Near and long,’’ Ballard said. “And I think that helps us. I mean, I’ve been very stated about like when you’re chasing the quarterback all the time, it makes it very . . . it’s hard. Like, your margin for error really shrinks down.
“And I feel very good about Daniel Jones and where he’s at, where he’s going. Yes, he’s got the Achilles, but I think Daniel Jones has got a really bright future here in Indianapolis. And look, there is some comfort knowing that, okay, we know we’ve got a guy that’s proven, that’s done it, and done some really good things.
“So, that does give you some confidence.’’
Until Jones fractured his left fibula then tore his right Achilles, he had distanced himself from his inconsistent and error-prone six seasons with the New York Giants. You remember, right? One playoff appearance was overshadowed by a 24-44-1 record as a starter and 70 turnovers.
Through the Colts’ 8-2 start, Jones was among the NFL’s most productive and efficient quarterbacks: 3rd in yards (2,659) and completion percentage (69.9) and 5thin yards per attempt (8.3). He joined Peyton Manning as the only player in franchise history to pass for at least 200 yards in each of his first 10 starts.
Jones completed 68% of his passes, averaged 8.1 per attempt and finished with a 100.2 rating. All were career highs.
“I’ll give Shane and the offensive staff a lot of credit,’’ Ballard said, “playing to his strength. He is really accurate with the football, okay, and he’s very smart and decisive of where he plays with the football.’’
What about Richardson?
The team’s undeniable commitment to Jones brings into question Anthony Richardson Sr.’s future with the Colts. He’s under contract through next season – there’s no reason to believe the team will exercise his fifth-year option – and finished the season on the injured reserve.
Richardson underwent surgery to repair a fractured right orbital bone after a freak accident with a resistance band before the Oct. 12 game with Arizona.
“Unfortunately for Anthony, he’s had some really bad luck,’’ Ballard said.
The No. 4 overall pick in 2023 has missed 29 of a possible 51 games because of a variety of injuries.
Richardson lost a training camp competition with Jones and was on the field for just 14 snaps in two games. He practiced the last three weeks but still was experiencing some degree of vision issues.
“He’s got to still work through the vision he has and we’ll see what the future holds there,’’ Ballard said. “We’ll kind of see going forward how that ends up playing out.
“A lot of it’s going to deal with his health, too.’’
Acquiring a late-round pick in a trade for Richardson shouldn’t be ruled out.
He is confident he’ll experience success.
“Oh yeah, no doubt,’’ he said. “If I’ve still got a chance to play football, it is always out there for me.’’
The Colts could consider Richardson expendable after seeing Riley Leonard play reasonably well as a rookie. If there is a concern that Jones won’t be ready for the season opener in September, they could bring in a veteran with starter experience in the offseason.
“Yeah, we’ll work through that,’’ Ballard said. “That is something we will evaluate. We got to make the decision. ‘Okay, if Anthony doesn’t get to where we think he can be, can Riley be the 2?’
“I do think it’s a position that every year we’ve got to address in some way, fashion or form.’’
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
Indianapolis Sports Calendar 2026: Final Four, Indy 500 & More
Following a banner year in 2025, Indianapolis has solidified its reputation as a premier destination for major sporting events.
The city demonstrated exceptional capacity for hosting diverse competitions, from professional leagues to collegiate championships, setting a high standard for hospitality and logistical execution.
As the calendar turns to 2026, the “Circle City” is not slowing down; instead, it is gearing up for another year of world-class athletic showcases.
The success of 2025 was not accidental.
It was the result of decades of strategic planning that transformed Indianapolis into a hub built specifically for large-scale events.
The city’s compact downtown, connected by skywalks and anchored by top-tier venues like Lucas Oil Stadium and Gainbridge Fieldhouse, allows fans to navigate easily between hotels, restaurants, and arenas.
In 2025, the city hosted a series of high-profile events that brought significant economic impact and cultural vibrancy to the region.
Local businesses, from Black-owned restaurants on Indiana Avenue to downtown hotels, thrived on the influx of visitors.
The seamless execution of these events proved once again that Indianapolis is capable of managing the complex infrastructure required for national and international sports.
Looking ahead, 2026 promises to elevate this legacy further. With a calendar featuring the NCAA Men’s Final Four, the historic Indianapolis 500, and the return of the NFL Scouting Combine, the city is prepared to welcome hundreds of thousands of visitors.
These events are more than just games; they are community gatherings that celebrate competition, diversity, and excellence.
Take a look below at Indianapolis Sports Calendar 2026: Final Four, Indy 500 & More.
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February 23 – March 2: NFL Scouting Combine
The NFL universe descends on Lucas Oil Stadium as top college prospects showcase their skills for professional scouts, coaches, and general managers.
This annual event remains a staple of the Indianapolis sports calendar.
March 2: WWE Monday Night RAW
Gainbridge Fieldhouse will host the drama and athleticism of the WWE, bringing global superstars to the city for a night of high-energy entertainment.
March 4–8: Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament
Gainbridge Fieldhouse welcomes the best women’s teams from the Big Ten Conference.
As women’s basketball continues to surge in popularity, this tournament is expected to draw significant crowds.
March 8–10: Horizon League Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournament
The action shifts to the Corteva Coliseum at the Indiana State Fairgrounds, where the Horizon League crowns its champions and determines automatic bids to the NCAA tournament.
March 18–21: NCAA DIII Men’s and Women’s Swimming Championships
The IU Natatorium at IU Indianapolis, known as one of the fastest pools in the world, will host elite swimmers competing for national titles.
April: The Road to the Championship
April marks the climax of the college basketball season, with Indianapolis serving as the epicenter of the sport.
April 2 & 5: National Invitation Tournament (NIT) Semifinals and Championship
Hinkle Fieldhouse will host the semifinals, followed by the championship game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, showcasing top-tier programs battling for the historic NIT title.
April 3: College Slam Dunk & 3-Point Championships
Hinkle Fieldhouse hosts this fan-favorite event, featuring the nation’s top shooters and high-flyers in a showcase of individual skill.
April 4 & 6: NCAA Men’s Final Four and National Championship
The eyes of the sports world will turn to Lucas Oil Stadium for the conclusion of March Madness.
Hosting the Final Four is a prestigious honor that underscores Indianapolis’s elite status in the sports world.
April 5: NCAA DII & DIII Men’s Basketball National Championships
In a celebration of collegiate athletics across all levels, Gainbridge Fieldhouse will host the title games for both Division II and Division III men’s basketball on the same day.
Spring and Summer: Racing and Golf
As the weather warms, the focus shifts from the court to the track and the links.
May 9: Sonsio Grand Prix
The month of May kicks off at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway with the Sonsio Grand Prix, setting the stage for the weeks of racing ahead.
May 24: 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500
The “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
This iconic event is a cultural touchstone, drawing hundreds of thousands of fans for a day of speed and tradition.
Coaches and players from the expanded Big Ten conference gather to preview the upcoming college football season, bringing media attention from across the country.
July 26: Brickyard 400
NASCAR returns to the oval at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for one of the most prestigious races on the Cup Series schedule.
August 20–23: LIV Golf Indianapolis
The Club at Chatham Hills will host LIV Golf, bringing many of the world’s top professional golfers to the area for this unique team-based competition.
Fall and Winter: Football Focus
The year concludes with major football events that celebrate both heritage and championships.
September 2–7: NHRA U.S. Nationals
Known as “The Big Go,” this drag racing event at Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park is the most prestigious drag race in the world.
Lucas Oil Stadium hosts the Circle City Classic, a celebration of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs).
This event is a cultural highlight, featuring not only the game but also the renowned battle of the bands, a parade, and community festivities.
The college football regular season culminates at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Big Ten champion is crowned, often with College Football Playoff implications on the line.
Indianapolis approaches 2026 with a proven playbook.
For residents and visitors alike, the 2026 schedule offers opportunities to witness history and participate in world-class experiences.
Whether it is the roar of the engines at the Speedway, the buzzer-beaters of the Final Four, or the pageantry of the Circle City Classic, Indianapolis is ready to deliver another magnificent year in sports.
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