Indianapolis, IN
Fantasy Football Make or Break: Can you still trust the Indianapolis Colts defense in Week 16?
We’re getting close to Christmas, and I’m feeling a little traditional, so I decided to give you a list of make-or-break players at every position this week, including defense. A stocking stuffer at each position!
‘Tis the season for fantasy miracles and potential boom weeks that can carry you into your fantasy championship!
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
We don’t traditionally think of him this way, but Stafford is fairly boom-or-bust by nature. It’s easy to miss because he’s an elite quarterback. However, Stafford’s lack of mobility means that to “make” your fantasy lineup, he either needs 300+ yards or a couple of touchdowns. If he throws an interception, can’t break 250 yards or manages just one touchdown, you’re likely getting a low-end QB2 or worse. Stafford has had three games this season finishing as QB30 or lower.
The Rams offense is either clicking on all cylinders or struggling. There’s typically no in-between, hence their constant jostling in the NFC West. The last time we saw Stafford was in a messy, rainy Thursday night game against the 49ers. Stafford had just 16 completions for 160 yards and no touchdowns in a game where Cooper Kupp didn’t catch a single pass. To be fair, conditions weren’t ideal, and both quarterbacks struggled significantly.
Will Stafford make or break your lineup in Week 16?
We’re due for a Matt Stafford boom game, and at first glance, a matchup against the New York Jets seems like a less-than-ideal scenario. However, the Jets defense has been in a tailspin since the firing of Robert Saleh. They’ve allowed strong performances to Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson.
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On a positive note, Aaron Rodgers is on a bit of a hot streak, meaning he should be able to take advantage of an inconsistent Rams defense and push this into a high-volume, back-and-forth game with one of the highest point totals of the week. The only concern is that the game is in New York, which brings potential weather implications. As of now, the forecast is simply cold, with no inclement weather expected, so Stafford should have no issues.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
With Nick Chubb out for the season, Ford is the next man up. I discussed Ford in this week’s Pulse Check, recapping his Week 15 performance and potential moving forward. Ford had a strong showing — the best Cleveland has seen in a while — as Chubb had been struggling on the ground and relying on touchdowns. Ford posted 84 rushing yards and a touchdown, including an electric 62-yard run, plus a couple of receptions.
Ideally, I’d like a week to see Ford in a clear lead-back role — especially given Kevin Stefanski’s lack of commitment earlier in the season — and evaluate how this offense operates with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of time. It’s Week 16, and we’re all in must-win scenarios. With a variety of injuries and underwhelming performances from running backs across the league, many fantasy managers might be considering Ford as a potential starter this week.
Will Ford make or break your lineup in Week 16?
While there are plenty of unknowns heading into this matchup, one thing is certain: Cincinnati’s defense is a complete mess. Running backs have had notable success against them in recent weeks, so we can take a leap of faith that Ford will provide at least a low-end RB2 floor. It’s also worth noting that Ford has decent receiving upside, a critical factor when facing the Bengals. Backs like Tyjae Spears, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren all thrived against them through receptions.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Heading into the season, you could’ve given me 1,000 guesses, and I would never have thought DK Metcalf would be a player I’d view as a make-or-break candidate. Unfortunately, since his return from injury, he’s failed to crack the top 30 at receiver and has hit double-digit fantasy points just once. To be fair, this hasn’t been an easy stretch of matchups, but the bigger problem is that while Metcalf is struggling, Jackson Smith-Njigba has essentially taken over as the WR1.
After Smith-Njigba’s breakout performance in Week 9 against the Rams, he has been the complete opposite of Metcalf. Smith-Njigba has posted at least 10 fantasy points in every game since Metcalf’s return, never finishing lower than WR34. Five games is enough of a sample size to suggest we may be witnessing a changing of the guard and a shift in offensive philosophy, leaving Metcalf as the secondary option in an inconsistent offense.
Will Metcalf make or break your lineup in Week 16?
In the past, Geno Smith hasn’t had an issue supplying volume to multiple receivers. However, during this stretch, Smith has failed to exceed 250 passing yards or throw multiple touchdowns in a game. There simply isn’t enough volume to go around, and Metcalf is the one suffering.
Looking at the Week 16 matchup against Minnesota, there are a couple of ways this could play out. Minnesota’s defense has been stout this year, but they do allow volume. While quarterbacks are less than ideal plays against the Vikings, wide receivers can still thrive. Although Metcalf has had a shaky floor, I think he leans more toward hitting double-digit fantasy points this week, making him less of a bust risk based purely on volume and potential game flow.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson returned from injury, and while Luke Schoonmaker did an admirable job in his absence, Ferguson is clearly the TE1 in Dallas. Unfortunately, holding that title hasn’t translated into production. Since his strong Week 9 game against Atlanta, Ferguson has gone from a fairly reliable TE1 option to failing to finish inside the top 20 at the position.
It’s likely not a coincidence that Week 9 was the last time we saw Dak Prescott under center. It’s possible Cooper Rush and Ferguson simply don’t mesh. The bigger issue, however, is Rush’s lower passing volume compared to Prescott and Dallas’ fairly average target distribution to tight ends. Low volume plus average distribution equals a middling TE2.
Will Ferguson make or break your lineup in Week 16?
Ferguson has repeatedly dropped in my rankings, but this week he gets a slight boost, thanks to a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay. Tampa has consistently been one of the most generous defenses to passing attacks, including tight ends. It’s allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position this season.
That said, we still need to be cautious. Even in excellent matchups like Cincinnati and Carolina, the Cowboys haven’t pushed significant volume with Rush at quarterback. While a high-volume game for Ferguson is unlikely, a touchdown and favorable game flow make him a viable option this week.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST
We’ve got a special treat this week: for the first time, I’m including a defense in this article!
With so many shaky backup quarterbacks thrust into starting roles across the league, several intriguing streaming defenses have emerged as top-12 options. Fantasy managers face some tough choices in Week 16: do you rely on a traditionally strong defense like Kansas City, facing a Houston offense that’s inconsistent but capable of explosive play? Or do you take a risk on a lesser-regarded defense with an excellent matchup against a turnover-prone quarterback?
The Indianapolis defense has been a mixed bag. They’ve allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks but the 10th-fewest to wide receivers. Against running backs, they’ve given up the eighth-most fantasy points, though Joe Mixon accounted for much of that damage, and they’ve faced overall strong backfields. While I expect Tony Pollard to take advantage of this matchup if he’s active, the damage he does on the ground won’t be enough to negate the potential for multiple turnovers by Mason Rudolph.
Will Indianapolis make or break your lineup in Week 16?
Ideally, we’d love to see Will Levis in this spot, but Rudolph will suffice. Rudolph has thrown at least one interception in every game he’s started this season, totaling five interceptions to just six touchdowns. In only three starts and two partial games, he’s also fumbled four times. Fantasy managers looking for high-upside streaming defenses with the potential to generate turnovers — and maybe even a glorious pick-six — should look to Indianapolis this week.
Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts highest and lowest PFF grades on offense in 2025
These Colts’ players on offense received the highest and lowest PFF grades over the 2025 NFL season.
With the Indianapolis Colts’ season now behind us, let’s take a look at which players on offense received the highest and lowest grades from Pro Football Focus.
Below is a look at PFF’s grading system for some context. While this metric is very helpful when it comes to quantifying a player’s performance, PFF’s grading system isn’t the be-all and end-all either. It is one metric out of many that are out there.
- 90.0+: Elite
- 80-89.9: High quality
- 70-79.9: Good
- 60-69.9: Above average
- 50-59.9: Average
- 40-49.9: Below average
- 39.9 or less: Poor
Now, here are the Colts’ five highest graded players on offense from the 2025 NFL season.
Colts’ five highest graded players for 2025 season
- LG Quenton Nelson: 84.5
- C Tanor Bortolini: 82.6
- LT Bernhard Raimann: 82.0
- WR Alec Pierce: 79.3
- RB Jonathan Taylor
In both pass-blocking efficiency and run-blocking grade, Nelson was one of the highest-rated guards in all of football by PFF’s metrics. Bortolini wasn’t credited with allowing any sacks, but what really boosted his overall grade was his performance as a run-blocker.
Raimann was steady across the board, grading out very well as both a run blocker and pass blocker.
Pierce led the Colts in receiving, totaling over 1,000 yards, and he also led the NFL in yards per catch. Taylor was the NFL’s second-leading rusher this season.
Colts’ three lowest graded players in 2025
- OL Dalton Tucker: 39.3
- QB Phillip Rivers: 51.0
- WR Anthony Gould: 52.0
Tucker’s pass-blocking grade is what brought down his overall grade. He allowed eight pressures and two sacks in just 86 pass-blocking snaps.
Remember at the beginning of this I said take these grades with a grain of salt? Rivers’ grade is an example of that. Overall, he provided the Colts’ with stability at quarterback and kept them in games. However, the late interceptions and lack of explosive plays brought his grade down.
Gould has a very small sample size to pull from, but of his two receptions, he generated just six yards of offense.
Indianapolis, IN
Best available 2026 NFL free agents on defense for Indianapolis Colts
According to a few different rankings, here are the best available NFL free agent defenders for the Indianapolis Colts.
As the Indianapolis Colts attempt to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, free agency will have to be a big part of that equation.
The Colts will have money to spend this offseason. According to Over the Cap, the Colts have $45.77 million in available cap space. Compared to the rest of the NFL, this is the ninth-most in football currently.
As GM Chris Ballard said on Thursday, salary cap-wise, the Colts are in “good shape.”
The Colts also have the ability to create more cap room if needed.
Last offseason, we saw Ballard take a much more aggressive approach in free agency. From the sounds of it, he will “continue down that path” this offseason.
There are always reasons to address just about every position group over the course of an offseason, but two specific areas Ballard mentioned on Thursday were the defensive front and getting faster on defense as a whole.
So, with a focus on the defense, specifically the front seven, here are the top available free agents this offseason at those positions.
Best available 2026 NFL free agents on defense for Indianapolis Colts
- DE Trey Hendrickson
- DE Jaelan Phillips
- IDL John Franklin-Myers
- LB Quay Walker
- LB Devin Lloyd
- DE Odafe Oweh
- DE Boye Mafe
- LB Nakobe Dean
- DE Joey Bosa
- IDL Travis Jones
- DE Khalil Mack
- LB Demario Davis
- DE Kyle Van Noy
- IDL Teair Tart
- IDL DaQuan Jones
*This list was compiled by rankings from Sports Illustrated, The Ringer, and Bleacher Report
Indianapolis, IN
Colts’ Chris Ballard: Daniel Jones has ‘really bright future in Indianapolis’
INDIANAPOLIS – Confidence remains high.
Carlie Irsay-Gordon made that clear Sunday night when she announced the Indianapolis Colts would move forward under the direction of general manager Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen.
And Ballard reinforced that conviction during Thursday’s postscript following an 8-9 record and fifth consecutive season without a playoff appearance.
“It wasn’t all negative,’’ he insisted. “I mean, 8-2 is real.
“That was not a mirage. It wasn’t. We were humming. We were playing good football.’’
After outlasting the Atlanta Falcons in overtime in Berlin Nov. 9, the Colts returned home 8-2.
“I mean, I would have told you when we got back from Germany . . . we had a top-four team in the league,’’ Ballard said. “I believe that. Still believe that.
“But losing seven in a row is losing seven in a row. That’s not what top-four teams do. And that’s reality. That’s the facts.’’
Here’s another undeniable fact: The Colts’ confidence moving forward is rooted in Daniel Jones.

Simple as that.
Yes, the edge pass rush wasn’t nearly good enough and a legitimate bookend for Laiatu Latu is critical. A free-agent acquisition should be a priority.
Yes, the defense must, as Ballard stressed, get younger and faster. The 2026 front-seven won’t resemble the 2025 front-seven.
And yes, the Colts must be able to run the ball better even when situations aren’t favorable. During the seven-game losing streak, which was fueled by injuries to Jones, Jonathan Taylor averaged 63.7 yards per game and 3.3 per attempt.
But if Jones isn’t the answer, nothing much else matters.
There are two significant issues with Jones that would be major impediments to a continued relationship in any other scenario.
Jones:
- Will be an unrestricted free agent in March.
- Tore his right Achilles Dec. 7, underwent surgery Dec. 9 and faces an arduous rehab. He expects to be ready for the start of training camp in late July. That would represent an 8½-month rehab.
“We’ll attack the process and make sure I’m ready to go,’’ Jones said Monday.
“I’m not a doctor and I’m not God in terms of knowing what the future is going to hold in his healing,’’ Ballard said. “ . . . the history of guys coming back has been pretty good and they’ve been older than Daniel.
“He’s a pretty freaky talent in terms of athletic ability. So no, I do feel confident that he will make it back. Will he be the version you saw (last season) right away? Maybe not, but he’s still going to be really good. I think as he goes along and plays, he’ll be fine.
“I know . . . he’s going to give every ounce of his being into being the best he can be to be ready.’’
But first things first, and that means signing him to an extension.
At the risk of assuming too much, that almost assuredly will be done.
“I’d love to be back here,’’ Jones said.
The feeling is mutual.
Ballard was asked if the Colts were committed to retaining Jones “come hell or high water.’’
He smiled.
“Well, hell or high water is a strong word, but we would like . . . it’s mutual on both sides,’’ he said. “I think Daniel was a really good fit for this organization and I think this organization and city were a really good fit for Daniel.’’
A multi-year deal could mirror that of contracts secured by Sam Darnold in Seattle (three-years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed) or Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay (three years, $100 million, $50 million guaranteed).
Ballard admitted Jones’ Achilles injury and rehab will impact negotiations, “but we’ll work through that with his agent. He’s got a really good agent.
“We’ll find a way to work through that.’’
If common ground can’t be reached – that probably means guaranteed money – the Colts always could use the franchise tag to retain Jones. The projected 2026 tag for quarterbacks is roughly $46 million guaranteed.
Jones turns 29 in May, which can be the midpoint of a quarterback’s career.
A reinvestment in Jones will represent short- and long-term stability at a position that’s been in flux since Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement two weeks before the 2019 season.
“I’m looking at him both: Near and long,’’ Ballard said. “And I think that helps us. I mean, I’ve been very stated about like when you’re chasing the quarterback all the time, it makes it very . . . it’s hard. Like, your margin for error really shrinks down.
“And I feel very good about Daniel Jones and where he’s at, where he’s going. Yes, he’s got the Achilles, but I think Daniel Jones has got a really bright future here in Indianapolis. And look, there is some comfort knowing that, okay, we know we’ve got a guy that’s proven, that’s done it, and done some really good things.
“So, that does give you some confidence.’’
Until Jones fractured his left fibula then tore his right Achilles, he had distanced himself from his inconsistent and error-prone six seasons with the New York Giants. You remember, right? One playoff appearance was overshadowed by a 24-44-1 record as a starter and 70 turnovers.
Through the Colts’ 8-2 start, Jones was among the NFL’s most productive and efficient quarterbacks: 3rd in yards (2,659) and completion percentage (69.9) and 5thin yards per attempt (8.3). He joined Peyton Manning as the only player in franchise history to pass for at least 200 yards in each of his first 10 starts.
Jones completed 68% of his passes, averaged 8.1 per attempt and finished with a 100.2 rating. All were career highs.
“I’ll give Shane and the offensive staff a lot of credit,’’ Ballard said, “playing to his strength. He is really accurate with the football, okay, and he’s very smart and decisive of where he plays with the football.’’
What about Richardson?
The team’s undeniable commitment to Jones brings into question Anthony Richardson Sr.’s future with the Colts. He’s under contract through next season – there’s no reason to believe the team will exercise his fifth-year option – and finished the season on the injured reserve.

Richardson underwent surgery to repair a fractured right orbital bone after a freak accident with a resistance band before the Oct. 12 game with Arizona.
“Unfortunately for Anthony, he’s had some really bad luck,’’ Ballard said.
The No. 4 overall pick in 2023 has missed 29 of a possible 51 games because of a variety of injuries.
Richardson lost a training camp competition with Jones and was on the field for just 14 snaps in two games. He practiced the last three weeks but still was experiencing some degree of vision issues.
“He’s got to still work through the vision he has and we’ll see what the future holds there,’’ Ballard said. “We’ll kind of see going forward how that ends up playing out.
“A lot of it’s going to deal with his health, too.’’
Acquiring a late-round pick in a trade for Richardson shouldn’t be ruled out.
He is confident he’ll experience success.
“Oh yeah, no doubt,’’ he said. “If I’ve still got a chance to play football, it is always out there for me.’’
The Colts could consider Richardson expendable after seeing Riley Leonard play reasonably well as a rookie. If there is a concern that Jones won’t be ready for the season opener in September, they could bring in a veteran with starter experience in the offseason.
“Yeah, we’ll work through that,’’ Ballard said. “That is something we will evaluate. We got to make the decision. ‘Okay, if Anthony doesn’t get to where we think he can be, can Riley be the 2?’
“I do think it’s a position that every year we’ve got to address in some way, fashion or form.’’
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
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