3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Colts

When the season started, few around the NFL expected the Denver Broncos to amount to much. A rookie quarterback, combined with a roster that was universally panned across the NFL media landscape led to very low expectations outside of Denver.

After an 0-2 start, all those doubts and misgivings seemed to be justified. But then something curious happened. The Broncos went on to win eight of their next 11 games, hitting their Week 14 bye at 8-5.

Riding a three-game winning streak and protecting a two-game lead for the AFC’s No. 7 playoff seed, the Broncos now emerge from the bye with something new to manage: expectations. Both Broncos Country and the NFL at large now expect this team to punctuate its impressive season with a convincing finish down the stretch.

With the playoff-desperate Indianapolis Colts coming to town, it’ll be interesting to see how Bo Nix and company shoulder those expectations. The Colts are no joke, so how do the Broncos emerge from Week 15 with another win and really load the deck for their first playoff berth since Super Bowl 50?

Let’s dive in.

The Colts defense isn’t very good, but it is opportunistic. Ranked 29th in yards, 22nd in points per game, 14th in rushing defense, and 26th against the pass, the Colts are both bendable and breakable.

However, Indy’s saving grace has been its penchant for taking the ball away. With nine interceptions and nine fumble recoveries, the Colts rank No. 8 in takeaways.

Nix has gone three straight games without a giveaway twice this season, so we know how hard it is to get him to cough it up. If he can bounce back in this respect from his two-interception game against the Cleveland Browns, I don’t see how the Colts could stop the Broncos’ rookie quarterback.

The Broncos have momentum, yes. But the Colts are desperate. That intensity will bleed into the game, and the Broncos have to be prepared to meet and exceed it.

But I like Nix’s outlook in this one. He’s kept his eye on the prize. It’s shaping up for another big passing day with multiple scores.

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The Broncos have been inconsistent this season in scoring early. It dove-tails with the above key, but Sean Payton’s got to cook up a great first-quarter script to put the Colts on their heels early.

Even an early touchdown will play into Denver’s hands. Colts second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is very talented and presents a dual threat to the Broncos, but an early lead puts the onus on him to stand and deliver.

I like the Broncos’ odds of getting after Richardson with their first-ranked pass rush, especially if they’re protecting an early lead. This is also the type of opponent that the Broncos can’t afford to let hang around.

The Broncos have to step on Indy’s throat out of the gates and never let up. Easier said than done, because the Colts get paid, too (turns out), and you never know what the limits of that fighting-to-stay-alive desperation are.

Richardson is 5-4 as Indy’s starter this season, with 1,511 passing yards and seven touchdowns. But he’s been picked off nine times, and has fumbled nine times, losing three of them.

That plays well into Denver’s predatory defensive nature. The Broncos not only rank first in sacks, but they’re tied (with the Colts) at No. 8 in total takeaways. The big difference between the Broncos’ and Colts’ respective defenses, though?

Pressure.

The Broncos have 47 team sacks while the Colts rank No. 15 with 32. This is one of those games where Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph would be wise to call man coverage and throw some blitz numbers at Richardson.

Pressure, pressure, pressure.

Yes, starting cornerback Riley Moss is expected to miss Week 15, but the Broncos simply don’t play well in zone, regardless of the personnel. Playing zone coverage requires a certain level of communication honed through live-bullet experience, and this young Broncos secondary simply isn’t there yet.

Let Patrick Surtain II smother Michael Pittman Jr. or Alec Pierce, as well as nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillian. I’m hopeful that Denver will go with rookie fifth-rounder Kris Abrams-Draine on the boundary opposite Surtain, and if so, I like his outlook for playing physical, bump-and-run coverage.

Sticky man coverage can force Richardson to hold onto the ball a beat or two longer, which plays into the Broncos’ ferocious pass rush, led by Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper. The Broncos’ starting outside linebacker tandem has combined for 19 sacks this season, and that’s to say nothing of the three other players with five sacks of their own.

Joseph needs to atone for that abomination of a game plan against Cleveland, and specifically, the horrendous performance of the secondary, outside of Surtain and McMillian. Richardson has a big arm and explosive athleticism, but the game hasn’t slowed down for him yet.

Confound the Colts quarterback with sensory overload and watch him throw it to the other team and cough it up. Victory awaits.

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