2023 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, time, date, grid: Model reveals surprising IndyCar picks, best bets

The 107th running of the Indianapolis 500 takes place on Sunday at 12:45 p.m. ET from Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Nine former Indy 500 winners will be a part of the 2023 Indianapolis 500 starting grid, and Alex Palou will be on the pole after posting the fastest qualifying speed in history. His Chip Ganassi Racing teammate in Marcus Ericsson is the defending champion, while 2013 winner Tony Kanaan has announced that the 2023 Indy 500 will be the final race of his career.

Pato O’Ward, who sits second in the IndyCar Series standings, is the 5-1 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. Palou follows at 23-4 in the latest Indianapolis 500 2023 odds, while other contenders include Scott Dixon (7-1) and Alexander Rossi (9-1). Before scouring the 2023 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2023 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model is off to a red-hot start in NASCAR this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 12 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Indy 500 leaderboard.

Top 2023 Indianapolis 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Will Power, even though he’s a 16-1 long shot in the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Power is the reigning IndyCar Series champion, marking his second drivers championship. He also won the 2018 Indy 500 and is among the most accomplished IndyCar drivers in history, ranking first in poles and fifth in wins.

Outside of his 2018 victory, Power also has three other top-five finishes at the Indy 500. He is backed by the most successful team in history, as Team Penske has won a record 18 Indy 500 races. That includes three victories over the last eight years, the most over that span. Even with Power’s history at the race and the strength of Penske, there are 11 drivers with shorter 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds, creating value in him as a long shot, according to the model. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Pato O’Ward, the Vegas favorite at 5-1, stumbles big-time and doesn’t even crack the top five. O’Ward was the 2020 Indy 500 Rookie of the Year after finishing sixth and has improved his performance each year. But after leading for 26 laps in last year’s race, and being even with Ericsson entering turn one on the final lap, O’Ward finished second.

That second-place finish would be a harbinger of the 2023 IndyCar Series, as O’Ward has three runners-up but no victories. He’s failed to win over his last 10 races, but Arrow McLaren’s drought extends much longer at The Brickyard. O’Ward’s team has never won an Indy 500, despite having 45 starters since 2001. O’Ward always finds a way to be in contention, but history isn’t on his side in terms of winning on Sunday. There are far better values in the 2023 Indy 500 starting grid. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Indianapolis 500 picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Indy 500 odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Indy 500 2023? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 12 winners since 2021. 

2023 Indianapolis 500 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)

See full 2023 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine

Pato O’Ward (5-1)
Alex Palou (23-4)
Scott Dixon (7-1)
Alexander Rossi (9-1)
Rinus VeeKay (10-1)
Marcus Ericsson (11-1)
Takuma Sato (11-1)
Felix Rosenqvist (12-1)
Josef Newgarden (14-1)
Scott McLaughlin (15-1)
Santino Ferrucci (15-1)
Will Power (16-1)
Tony Kanaan (17-1)
Colton Herta (20-1)
Kyle Kirkwood (25-1)
Conor Daly (30-1)
David Malukas (40-1)
Romain Grosjean (45-1)
Graham Rahal (50-1)
Simon Pagenaud (50-1)
Ed Carpenter (50-1)
Helio Castroneves (55-1)
Ryan Hunter-Reay (60-1)
Marco Andretti (60-1)
Benjamin Pedersen (75-1)
Christian Lundgaard (100-1)
Jack Harvey (200-1)
Agustin Canapino (250-1)
Callum Ilott (250-1)
RC Enerson (300-1)
Devlin DeFrancesco (300-1)
Katherine Legge (300-1)
Sting Ray Robb (300-1)

Indianapolis 500 starting grid

Row 1- Scott Dixon, Rinus VeeKay, Felix Rosenqvist
Row 2- Santino Ferrucci, Pato O’Ward, Scott Dixon
Row 3- Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, Tony Kanaan
Row 4- Marcus Ericsson, Benjamin Pedersen, Will Power
Row 5- Ed Carpenter, Scott McLaughlin, Kyle Kirkwood
Row 6- Conor Daly, Josef Newgarden, Ryan Hunter-Reay
Row 7- Romain Grosjean, Hélio Castroneves, Colton Herta
Row 8- Simon Pagenaud, David Malukas, Marco Andretti
Row 9- Devlin DeFrancesco, Agustín Canapino, Callum Ilott
Row 10- R. C. Enerson, Katherine Legge, Christian Lundgaard
Row 11- Sting Ray Robb, Jack Harvey, Graham Rahal