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Notre Dame vs. Indiana: Predictions, odds for College Football Playoff

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Notre Dame vs. Indiana: Predictions, odds for College Football Playoff


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The first-ever first-round matchup of the 12-team College Football Playoff will be an in-state rivalry game that’s rarely played.

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No. 7 seed Notre Dame is set to host No. 10 seed Indiana on Friday, Dec. 19, with the winner advancing to the CFP quarterfinals to face No. 2 seed Georgia at the Sugar Bowl. It will be the first meeting in football between the Hoosiers and Fighting Irish since 1991 and just their second game against one another in the past 65 years, despite their campuses being just about 200 miles apart.

Led by coach Marcus Freeman’s ferocious defense, a potent rushing attack and the steady play of quarterback Riley Leonard, Notre Dame is the favorite after an 11-1 regular season in which it won by double digits in all but one game. The Fighting Irish reeled off 10 wins in a row following their shocking upset loss to Northern Illinois in September.

Indiana is in the midst of the best season in program history, with only a loss to fellow CFP qualifier Ohio State on its resume this year. First-year coach Curt Cignetti has the nation’s second-highest scoring offense and the Hoosiers also rank second in the country in total defense entering Friday’s first-round game. Though Indiana’s strength of schedule was questioned during the CFP selection process, its average margin of victory this season is more than 33 points per game.

But the playoffs will be a new challenge for both teams, with a national championship just four wins away. Here’s a look at some predictions for Notre Dame vs. Indiana, as well as odds, betting lines and how to watch this highly anticipated primetime matchup to start the 12-team CFP era.

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CFP first-round predictions: Notre Dame vs. Indiana

USA Today: No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 10 Indiana

Paul Myerberg writes: “A relatively weak strength of schedule has Notre Dame flying under the radar as a legitimate contender. The Fighting Irish have one of the best-balanced team from offense to defense and special teams. Likewise with Indiana, even if the Hoosiers’ chances of winning one or more playoff games is viewed with a high degree of skepticism. Look for Notre Dame to slow down Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers while punishing the Indiana defense with the nation’s third-ranked running game in yards per carry.”

ESPN: Notre Dame has 73.7% chance to win

According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a 70.4% chance to beat the Indiana Hoosiers in the first round of the College Football Playoff as of Friday, December 13.

The Sporting News: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 24

Bill Bender writes: “Indiana allowed 2.5 yards per carry this season, and that run defense will be tested by the Irish trio of Riley Leonard (721 yards, 5.8 ypc.), Jeremiyah Love (949 yards, 7.1 ypc.) and Jadarian Price (651, 7.3 ypc.). Kurtis Rourke will test an opportunistic Notre Dame secondary, and the Hoosiers will need the running game to be in order, too. It’s been a dream season for Indiana coach Curt Cignetti. Will it continue against the Irish? Notre Dame covered in each of its last seven games, but this one stays tighter.”

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Fox Sports: Indiana wins

RJ Young writes: “The Fighting Irish will face the most complete team they’ve seen all year in Indiana. The Hoosiers have beaten 10 out of 12 opponents by double-digits and believe they are the best team in the state of Indiana. However, Al Golden’s defense has been outstanding, allowing only one team to score 35 points in a game this season.”

CFP first-round odds, lines: Notre Dame vs. Indiana

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are favorites to defeat the Indiana Hoosiers, according to the BetMGM college football odds.

Odds as of Wednesday, Dec. 18.

  • Spread: Notre Dame (-7.5)
  • Moneylines: Notre Dame (-300); Indiana (+230)
  • Over/under: 51.5

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Indiana in CFP first round

  • Date: Friday, Dec. 20
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC/ESPN
  • Stream: Fubo (free trial for new subscribers)
  • Where: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Indiana)

Watch select CFP games with Fubo

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Ty Simpson tells why he believes Indiana dominated Alabama in Rose Bowl

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Ty Simpson tells why he believes Indiana dominated Alabama in Rose Bowl





© Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ty Simpson was a guest on the “Downs 2 Business” podcast with Caleb Downs and Josh Downs, and he discussed why he believed Indiana beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl.

The Crimson Tide’s offense was unable to score a touchdown against the Hoosiers in the 38-3 loss. Simpson shone a light on why he felt Indiana had so much success against Alabama on X.

“From my point of view, I was like they don’t much,” Simpson said. “I was like they do the same thing every down and so when I get the ball, I knew exactly what was going to happen. They just didn’t mess up, bro. They were in the exact same spot they were supposed to be, and they were so well coached. It was so much different than the SEC. In the SEC, they’ll play man, they’ll do these unorthodox coverages because kind of how it is. That game was crazy to me. Of course, I got hurt; that was a bummer. But I just knew what they were going to do, but we couldn’t really run the ball. We didn’t really throw it. It was so crazy to me how it happened.”

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Indiana went on to beat Oregon in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff, and the Hoosiers defeated Miami in the National Championship after defeating the Crimson Tide.

Simpson and Caleb Downs are now both gearing up to be drafted this month.







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3 Big Takeaways From Indiana Basketball’s Transfer Portal Dominance

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3 Big Takeaways From Indiana Basketball’s Transfer Portal Dominance


Indiana may be one of the most decorated programs in college basketball history, but a brand name no longer has the recruiting pull it used to. In the past, the Hoosiers had a foolproof sell: it’s Indiana. Nowadays, in the NIL era, the playing field has been leveled. 

To win in the transfer portal and recruiting as a whole, a program like Indiana needs a premier recruiter – and it has one in Darian DeVries.

Heading into his second season as the Hoosiers head man, DeVries is on an absolute heater, as he just landed his sixth transfer (Villanova guard Bryce Lindsay) on Wednesday night. 

With the addition of Lindsay, the Hoosiers have arguably the No. 1 transfer class in the nation and certainly one of the top three. Here are three takeaways from Indiana’s offseason thus far:

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Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian Devries reacts in the first half of the NCAA game at Value City Arena on Saturday, March 7, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Indiana won’t have a talent problem in 2026-27

On one hand, the expectations are high in Bloomington – especially after the turnaround Curt Cignetti engineered in just two quick years on the gridiron. And an NCAA Tournament appearance isn’t exactly the Herculean task a College Football Playoff berth, let alone a national title, is. 

Then again, DeVries didn’t have much time to craft his 2025-26 roster, and the end result wound up being less-than ideal from a talent perspective. All things considered, DeVries didn’t do a poor job given the roster he had. But it was also his roster. 

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Coaching is a balance of roster-building, X’s and O’s and culture. It’s up to DeVries to tailor a roster fit to his coaching strengths. Here in the 2026 offseason, he’s sent a message: recruiting will not be a problem. As a result, talent won’t be a weakness – it’ll be a strength. 

The question now: can DeVries take advantage of an uber-skilled crew? Can he mesh the pieces and, ideally, create a product better than the sum of its parts? If the 2025-26 season was any sign, the answer is yes – which means a Big Dance appearance should be the bare minimum next year. 

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How will the backcourt depth chart shake out?

Notre Dame guard Markus Burton celebrates during a NCAA men’s basketball game against Missouri at Purcell Pavilion on Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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The Hoosiers are going to have a loaded guard rotation, and DeVries has a variety of options in terms of a starting backcourt.

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Markus Burton is a surefire starter at lead guard, but then DeVries can choose between Bryce Lindsay and Jaeden Mustaf at the two, or, potentially, he could run both together at shooting guard and small forward.

What about Duke transfer Darren Harris, though? He’s more of a wing, but it’s not exactly clear how he’ll fit in the fold. And incoming combo guard Prince-Alexander Moody can also compete for minutes. 

Fortunately, DeVries can’t exactly go wrong. A Burton-Lindsay starting backcourt would be undersized but loaded, chock-full of shooting and playmaking, while a Burton-Mustaf combo would be a slashing nightmare for opponents, strong defensively and tough on the boards. 

And if Moody shocks the college hoops world and manages to sneak in over both Lindsay and Mustaf, that means the Hoosiers have a bona fide star on their hands. 

With the addition of Lindsay, the Hoosiers have arguably the No. 1 transfer class in the nation and certainly one of the top three. Here are three takeaways from Indiana’s offseason thus far.

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The Hoosiers should be much better on the glass

Indiana could have been a lot better on the boards a year ago. The Hoosiers were No. 296 in offensive rebounding rate and No. 122 in defensive rebounding rate, per Bart Torvik. As a squad, Indiana was often undersized – and sometimes by a huge margin. Naturally, the glass suffered, affecting both sides of the floor. 

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Mar 20, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide forward Aiden Sherrell (22) shoots against Hofstra Pride forward Victory Onuetu (6) in the second half during a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

In 2026-27, the Hoosiers should flip the script in that department. With incoming big men Aiden Sherrell (Alabama) and Samet Yigitoglu (SMU) combining for 14.1 total rebounds per outing despite neither playing more than 30 minutes per game in this past campaign, Indiana should have a dominant glass-cleaning unit in the frontcourt in 2026-27.

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Indiana Fever Free Agency Grades: Every Signing So Far

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Indiana Fever Free Agency Grades: Every Signing So Far


The Indiana Fever were in a much better position than many other teams going into this offseason since two of their three best players were still under contract. 

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Nevertheless, the Fever made some significant moves in free agency to build a potential contender around Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston. None of them were necessarily bad moves, but some are more impactful than others.

Re-signing Kelsey Mitchell: A+

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Sep 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell (0) in the second half during game four against the Las Vegas Aces of the second round for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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The Fever signed Kelsey Mitchell to a one-year supermax deal, and it’s worth every cent. Mitchell endured years of losing and still stayed loyal to the franchise. Last season, she was the driving force behind the Fever’s surprise run to the semifinals and a legitimate MVP candidate. 

Re-signing Lexie Hull: A

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Indiana Fever guard Lexie Hull (10) celebrates a 3-pointer Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025, during Game 2 of a WNBA playoff matchup between the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Indiana Fever defeated the Atlanta Dream, 77-60. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When you have a star trio of Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, and Caitlin Clark, you need strong defense and 3-point shooting around them. So, re-signing Lexie Hull was a no-brainer. She is the perfect role player next to the big three. 

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Re-signing Sophie Cunningham: A

Aug 17, 2025; Uncasville, Connecticut, USA; Indiana Fever guard Sophie Cunningham (8) warms up before the start of the game against the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Cunningham’s first season with the Fever was cut short by an injury, but her versatility was on full display. She played the four and three, but also stepped into the point guard role when Clark, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald all suffered injuries. Keeping her around adds defense, 3-point shooting, and positional versatility that will come in handy for a team hoping to go on a deep playoff run. 

Signing Monique Billings: B+

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Sep 4, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Valkyries forward Monique Billings (25) warms up before the game against the Dallas Wings at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-Imagn Images | John Hefti-Imagn Images

Monique Billings may not be the free agency get that Azurá Stevens would have been, but she should still fit in well with the Fever’s core. She can provide inside scoring and rebounding alongside and behind Aliyah Boston, she runs the floor well in transition, and she should be a great pick-and-roll partner for Clark. 

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Signing Tyasha Harris: B

May 25, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Connecticut Sun guard Tyasha Harris (52) drives to the basket against the Chicago Sky during the first half of a WNBA game at Wintrust Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
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Signing Ty Harris as the backup guard behind Clark is an upgrade over Sydney Colson. She was also the starting point guard for Stephanie White’s Connecticut Sun team that finished the 2024 season with the league’s best defensive rating and the third-best record. Signing her is just a super solid get. 

Signing Myisha Hines-Allen: B

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Jun 28, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Wings forward Myisha Hines-Allen (2) in action during the game between the Dallas Wings and the Washington Mystics at College Park Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

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Hines-Allen is another solid addition to the frontcourt. She rebounds well and finishes rather efficiently around the rim. When the Lynx added her ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, she emerged as an immediate contributor for a finals team. Hopefully, she can be the same for the Fever.

Re-signing Damiris Dantas: C

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Jun 19, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Indiana Fever forward Damiris Dantas (12) warms up before the game against the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Holding on to Dantas is a fine move, but not one that will make or break the season. She can provide center depth off the bench and has experience playing with the core, but since the Fever signed Billings, she likely won’t get a chance to make much of an impact. 

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Signing Shatori Walker-Kimbrough to a training camp deal: C-

Aug 17, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Atlanta Dream guard Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (32) dribbles upcourt against the Golden State Valkyries in the fourth quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Walker-Kimbrough adds a veteran presence and some guard depth, but doesn’t promise much production. She was in a similar position with the Atlanta Dream last season and averaged 1.7 points in about 8 minutes per game. If injuries pushed her into a bigger role, she could still contribute more, though. There just won’t be a lot of opportunities on a healthy Fever team, and she definitely wouldn’t be the kind of difference-maker Odyssey Sims was last season.

Signing Megan McConnell to a training camp contract: B

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May 11, 2025; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Mercury guard Megan McConnell (16) against the Golden State Valkyries during a preseason game at PHX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Megan McConnell only got to play one game in her rookie season before she suffered an injury. After that, she had a productive offseason in the WNBL, and her brother TJ McConnell plays for the Indiana Pacers, which makes her getting a shot with the Fever a great story. Giving her a chance to claim a roster spot in training camp, even if it’s one of the two developmental spots, is not a game-changing move, but a promising one. 

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Signing Kayana Traylor to a training camp contract: B-

Mar 27, 2023; Seattle, WA, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies guard Kayana Traylor (23) cuts down the net after defeating the Ohio State Buckeyes at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
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As a second-round pick in 2023, Traylor fell victim to the limited number of roster spots in the W, and she has played overseas and in AU since. She won’t move the needle, but seeing if they can develop her into a future contributor certainly can’t hurt. 

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