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NCAA Tournament bubble watch: OSU-Indiana looms large, UNC faces win-and-in game

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NCAA Tournament bubble watch: OSU-Indiana looms large, UNC faces win-and-in game


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Just 10 days separate us from learning the 68-team field in the NCAA Tournament. Bracket season is upon us and the madness is well underway, with multiple bubble results already taking place this week and a mammoth slate of games on the docket this weekend. The headliner is the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have a win-and-in game against No. 2 Duke on Saturday at the Dean Dome.

Coach Hubert Davis is trying to avoid a second missed trip to the Big Dance in the past three years. While his job is safe after it was reported that he signed a two-year contract extension in December 2024 to take him through 2030, the idea of being on the wrong side of the bubble again this year would mean that he must win in the 2025-26 campaign. That said, opportunity knocks Saturday when a Duke team that has lost just once since Nov. 6 comes to Chapel Hill. 

This feels like a real uphill battle for UNC, but not many teams get the luxury of a win-and-in game this time of year — and there’s no question that a victory over a Duke squad that sits at No. 1 in NET, KenPom and Torvik would clinch a spot for the Tar Heels. Their résumé? There’s not enough quality to it, with UNC having a 1-10 record against Quadrant 1 teams and that one quality win (a neutral site victory over UCLA) getting negated by a Quad 3 home loss to Stanford. UNC’s NET is 38, a solid ranking compared to others on the bubble and one that is better than Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Xavier. UNC’s “wins above bubble” sits at 44th in the country (+1.0), while the KPI, which ranks every team’s wins and losses on a positive-to-negative scale, places it outside the top 50. 

The point? The Tar Heels will be sweating heavily on Selection Sunday if they lose to Duke and don’t steal a bid in the ACC Tournament. What will the keys be for UNC to have a shot? The Tar Heels have to defend better, and they’ve got to make a decision about defending Cooper Flagg — make him just a scorer or just a facilitator, because if he’s doing both well, they’re in for a long night. RJ Davis has to play like a first-team All-American, while Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble must deliver when they free up with perimeter looks. 

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There’s a huge bubble bowl in Bloomington, Indiana, on Saturday when Indiana hosts Ohio State. The Hoosiers, who fell at Oregon earlier this week, seem to be in a solid spot to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament and can all but officially lock up a spot with a win over the Buckeyes. Indiana has four Quad 1 wins and zero defeats outside Q1. That’s normally pretty valuable to the selection committee, as is the fact that Indiana only played four Quad 4 games. One of the Hoosiers’ four Quad 1 wins came at Ohio State back on Jan. 17 when Luke Goode hit a clutch 3 and Anthony Leal put up a game-sealing block in the final seconds to seal a victory. Indiana is coming off a 73-64 defeat at Oregon in which Myles Rice and Mackenzie Mgbako were held to a combined 3-for-17 shooting from the field, but the Hoosiers are 13-4 at home as opposed to 5-8 away from Assembly Hall. Winning Saturday would help ensure Indiana isn’t sweating on Selection Sunday, but Ohio State has momentum coming into Bloomington after a 116-114 double-overtime victory over fellow bubble team Nebraska. Bruce Thornton led the Buckeyes with 29 points and nine assists.

I agree with FOX Sports college basketball bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy that the Buckeyes should be in the 68-team field because of a win on a neutral floor over Kentucky coupled with a victory at Purdue. Ohio State has six Quad 1 wins, and while a 3-3 Quad 2 record isn’t great, this team doesn’t own a backbreaking defeat and their résumé is pretty solid all around. The difference between the Buckeyes and another bubble team like Nebraska is the fact the Huskers own two Quad 3 losses. The Huskers host Iowa on Sunday in a must-win game. 

Let’s assess other bubble winners and losers! 

The Razorbacks looked defeated on Saturday in a loss to South Carolina, but John Calipari’s team bounced back with a 90-77 victory at Vanderbilt. Johnell Davis had 21 points in the victory, showing why he was such a good portal pickup for Calipari. A home date with a Mississippi State team that is top-35 in the NET is another strong chance for Arkansas to make a case. If the Razorbacks win Saturday and aren’t the auto-bid from the SEC Tournament, I could see them in Dayton as one of the first four teams in. TV networks would certainly like that. 

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Oklahoma (Bubble winner) 

If you’re firmly on the bubble at this point and need to move the needle with a win, you have to seize it. The Sooners did just that, shooting 57% from the floor in a dominant win over a Missouri team that stands at 15 in NET. Jeremiah Fears looks every bit the part of a first-round NBA Draft pick, scoring 31 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the floor while delivering five assists. He has sensational upside, but for now, he’s keeping Oklahoma alive for a bid.

The Bearcats’ offense just hasn’t been good enough. They went 2-of-18 from 3 in a loss to Kansas State and don’t have a true alpha scorer. With just one Quad 1 win and a combined 11-13 record versus the other three quadrants combined, I don’t think there’s enough meat on the bone. I’d say Cincinnati is out.

Xavier (Bubble winner)

The Musketeers have won 11 of their past 14 contests, and they routed Butler at Hinkle Fieldhouse, 91-78, in what was perceived as a potential trap game. Coach Sean Miller told me that Zach Freemantle’s level of play and his attitude is one that matches the pros and that he realizes this is it for him in college basketball as a senior. We’re watching that play out, with Freemantle and Ryan Conwell really turning it up on a daily basis. 

Tensions rose down the stretch in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday night. Coach Ed Cooley wanted to quadruple his Big East win count, while Kyle Neptune was trying to save his job. Yet, the Cats have lost two games to Georgetown by a grand total of three points. With two Quad 3 losses and another in Quad 4, the Cats just have too many blemishes to overcome. 

What a final week and a half on deck in college basketball. For some, bubbles will be popped. For others, they won’t have to worry about a thing on Selection Sunday. Then there’s those middling bubble teams that are trying to find a way in. There will be no shortage of those teams in the mix here down the stretch. Let’s see what happens. It’s the most wonderful time of the year for a reason!

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John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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Indiana’s Curt Cignetti cashes in on title run with 8-year extension worth $13.2 million per year

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Indiana’s Curt Cignetti cashes in on title run with 8-year extension worth .2 million per year


Indiana coach Curt Cignetti is cashing in on his first national championship run — even more than initially expected.

Athletic department officials announced Monday that the two-time national coach of the year has signed a memorandum of understanding on an eight-year contract extension, paying him an annual average of $13.2 million — or an increase of about $1.6 million per year from what school officials said Cignetti would earn when he first agreed to the extension in October.

School officials released the document Cignetti signed Feb. 4.

He joins Georgia coach Kirby Smart and LSU coach Lane Kiffin as the only active Football Bowl Subdivision coaches to receive paychecks of $13 million or more. The payouts could be even higher if Cignetti earns bonuses for winning Big Ten or national coach of the year honors in addition to playoff appearances and conference titles. The 64-year-old Cignetti already has said he hopes to retire at Indiana.

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The new deal calls for a base salary of $500,000 per year through the 2033 season and a $1 million retention bonus on Nov. 30 of each year, starting this fall. The remaining portion of the $105.6 million will be collected from outside, promotional and marketing income.

Cignetti initially agreed to an eight-year extension worth $92.8 million — an annual average of $11.6 million — but university officials agreed to modify the deal as the Hoosiers remained undefeated and pursued the first football national championship in school history.

It’s the third time Cignetti has received a raise since he took over the losingest program in FBS history in November 2024. All he’s done since arriving is produce the two best seasons in school history while becoming one of college football’s fan favorites for his quick quips and unique facial expressions. Players have embraced him, too, telling many of their favorite Cignetti tales.

Just ask tight end Riley Nowakowski, who recounted his favorite Cignetti story during the recent NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis.

“I think (Alberto Mendoza) was in the game, and he pulled like four runs in a row,” Nowakowski said, referring to last season’s victory over Illinois. “He kept pulling it, kept pulling it, kept pulling it, and then after the fourth time, it was a terrible read. So in the middle of the game, (Cignetti) tells our coach, ‘Get (Alberto) over here.’ Bert’s like, ‘What, it’s the middle of a game, what are you doing?’ And (Cignetti) goes, ‘We’re not paying you to run the ball, hand the ball off, right? We’re up like 70 points, but he’s pissed off, yelling at Bert, and (Cignetti) just turned back at me and gave me one of his little smiles, and he was just like, ’You like that now?’”

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Cignetti wasted no time delivering on his promise to win after leading James Madison to the most successful transition from the Football Championship Subdivision to the FBS.

The son of Hall of Fame coach Frank Cignetti and a former Alabama assistant led Indiana to a school record 11 wins and its first College Football Playoff appearance in his first season with the Hoosiers.

Last season, he outdid that mark by producing the first 16-0 mark in major college football since the 1890s. The Hoosiers also won their first outright Big Ten crown since 1945, beat Miami on its home field to claim the national title and shed the label of having the most all-time losses in FBS history.

Mendoza’s older brother, Fernando, also became the first Indiana player to win the Heisman Trophy and is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft.

The reward: A record nine players, including Mendoza and Nowakowski, attended the recent combine in Indianapolis while Cignetti got another pay raise and school officials continued to invest heavily in keeping the coach’s staff together.

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Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines each agreed to three-year contract extensions worth about $3 million per year in December, making them two of the highest-paid assistants in the FBS. Haines won this year’s Broyles Award, which goes to the nation’s top assistant coach.

Indiana will begin next season with the longest winning streak (16) and longest home winning streak (15) in the FBS. Cignetti has never lost a home game with the Hoosiers, who open defense of their league and national titles at home against North Texas on Sept. 5.



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What Tom Izzo said after Michigan State’s win over Indiana

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What Tom Izzo said after Michigan State’s win over Indiana


Michigan State basketball went into Assembly Hall on Sunday afternoon and controlled the Hoosiers from start to finish, earning a 77-64 victory. The win goes a long way in almost virtually confirming that the Spartans will have a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, while also bolstering the Spartans case to get a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

For the second straight outing in the state of Indiana, MSU head coach Tom Izzo came away pleased with his group, and expressed that to the media:

  • “Well, to be honest with you, for once, we got off to a good start. We haven’t been doing that. We decided to try to go inside, Kohler (had) been struggling, we thought we’d try to get him going. We get that 10-point lead and it kind of stayed that way.
  • “We did not do a great job of building on it, it’s because they’re a good team. Everybody asks me, ‘Are they good enough to be in the tournament?’ Read my lips: hell yes. It’s just that somebody’s got to lose some of these games. The league is so good.”
  • “I’m proud of my guys, because coming back from that Thursday-Sunday deal, both on the road, I thought they showed a lot of character. I’m proud of my staff, those preps are not easy at this time of year. Kur came off the bench and really sparked us after making more than a few mistakes.”
  • “What I appreciated about the game is I thought Jeremy took over. Everything we asked him to run early, to go into Jaxon, he did a great job of. I thought Kur, who’s a sophomore now, took a big step forward after not playing very well the 5 minutes he was in there early and falling down and giving up 3s, and then he bounced back. That’s kind of what you’ve gotta do.”
  • “We did it a little different way. We said this will be kind of like the NCAA Tournament where you’ve got a one- or two-day prep, one-day prep, so I think it was good for us. I’m really proud of them, but I don’t want to be proud of them until I’m done playing.”
  • “All in all, guys, we’re in spring break, which means you can practice like 100 times, and nobody arrests you or anything. But our guys deserve some time off and we’ll get some things done tomorrow. “

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Cory Linsner on X @Rex_Linzy





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Coast Guard investigates death of mariner working barge in Jeffersonville

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Coast Guard investigates death of mariner working barge in Jeffersonville


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U.S. Coast Guard officials are investigating March 1 after a mariner died while working on a barge in Jeffersonville, Indiana.

An incident involving the mariner occurred the afternoon of Feb. 27 at mile marker 597 of the Ohio River, said Lt. Cmdr. Steve Leighty, public affairs officer for the U.S. Coast Guard Ohio Valley Sector. Leighty declined to provide further details about the mariner and the circumstances of their death, citing the ongoing investigation.

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Officials with the Clark County Sheriff’s Office are also investigating the incident, Leighty said.

Reach reporter Leo Bertucci at lbertucci@usatodayco.com or @leober2chee on X, formerly known as Twitter



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