Early voting numbers suggest strong turnout, but which candidate benefits?

Chris and Shelby Ashby waited about an hour and a half Tuesday morning to vote at St. Luke’s United Methodist Church in Indianapolis, where the line coiled around temporary fences before stretching into the parking lot. 

The Indianapolis couple’s toddler was in preschool, and they were hoping to avoid the long lines on Election Day. 

Chris Ashby said he was motivated to vote for Democrat Jennifer McCormick in the governor’s race and Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election. 

“We rank too low in education,” Ashby said. “[McCormick] is an educator, and it was the most important issue for me.” 

Shelby Ashby said it was “very important we have the right people in charge,” a reference toHarris. 

At the same location, Claire Baker, also of Indianapolis, waited three hours to vote. This was her first time voting early. 

“It’s always a privilege to exercise my right to vote,” Baker said. She was most excited to cast a ballot for former President Donald Trump in the presidential election. 

The wait was at least an hour in neighboring Hamilton County, where Fishers resident Blake Broeker said as left the county fairgrounds that he was also motivated to vote for Trump. 

Early voting is well underway in Indiana, where nearly 955,000 people had submitted ballots as of Tuesday. That number marks a strong turnout that trailed only the record-setting early turnout of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic pushed more Hoosiers to vote early — either in person or by mail. 

Election experts were encouraged by the turnout thus far but stopped short of forecasting an advantage for either party or candidate based on the numbers. 

“If you’d have told me that a quarter of the turnout in 2020 would have already voted in Indiana with a week to go, I would have been surprised,” said Michael Wolf, political science chair and professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne. “It is quite a surprise. If you want people to participate, then early voting is clearly working.”

What the early voting numbers show

So far, 2024’s turnout lags behind 2020 figures but is well ahead of 2016 numbers. 

In 2020, more than 1,358,000 Hoosiers had voted by the week before Election Day. The total in 2016 was about 571,000. 

According to Democratic data firm TargetSmart, about 54% of the ballots returned thus far belonged to women — a similar proportion to voter splits in 2020. 

The split by age demographics is starker. 

In 2020, about 31% of ballots returned at this point belonged to voters under 50 years old, while about 42% came from people over 65. 

This year, about 25% of ballots collected thus far came from voters under 50. About 49% of votes belonged to Hoosiers over 65. 

What the numbers don’t show

“We know how many people voted early, but we have no idea who they voted for,” Indiana University Professor Emeritus Marjorie Hershey said. 

Trump vilified the early voting practice in 2020, Hershey said, and Democrats tended to take the pandemic more seriously. That meant early voting numbers skewed Democratic. 

But more Republicans have embraced the practice in 2024, making it impossible to speculate about which candidates benefit from strong early turnout, according to Hershey.  

It’s also too early to make such assumptions. 

“Typically, what happens is a wave for one candidate or the other in the last few days,” Hershey said. “But it’s impossible to know who that will be.”

Competitive governor’s race could be driving turnout

Wolf, the Purdue professor, said the gubernatorial race between Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Braun and McCormick, the state’s former superintendent of public instruction, may be a factor in the high turnout. 

“People are paying attention to the governor’s race,” he said. “It’s hard to punch through the national-level stuff, but the candidates have had good, crisp debates.”

McCormick is airing commercials paid for with out-of-state money, Wolf said, and Republican groups have moved to match — meaning they must see the race tightening. 

“To have two candidates who have held statewide office matters,” Wolf said. “Both candidates have run solid campaigns, and McCormick has produced a narrative that will have some people more engaged.” 

Voting lines outside of Indianapolis 

One statewide advocacy group is noting long early voting lines in places where they have not been seen before. 

“It’s not unusual to see long lines and waits in Marion County, but we’re hearing about lines in other parts of the state,” said Julia Vaughn, executive director of the voter rights advocacy group Common Cause Indiana. “Two hours in Carmel. An hour and a half in Allen County.” 

Vaughn was cautiously optimistic about the turnout thus far. 

“It would be great if, [with] this election, Indiana could get out of the cellar in terms of voter turnout,” she said. 

Several key issues, such as health care and education, were motivating voters more than specific candidates in this cycle, Vaughn said. 

She is rooting for the heavy turnout to continue through Tuesday. 

“I hope vote centers aren’t ghost towns on Election Day,” she said. 

Contact Rory Appleton on X at @roryehappleton or email him at [email protected].