#5 Purdue (24-5, Massive 10 13-5) vs. Illinois (20-10, Massive 10 11-8)

Senior Day

March 4, 2023, 12:30 p.m. EST

Mackey Enviornment, West Lafayette, Indiana

TV: Fox

Roster

Illinois On Offense

So we’ll get extra into how Illinois is the sixteenth greatest crew in faculty basketball by way of common peak within the defensive portion of this submit, however first: their size saves an in any other case mediocre offense with factors scored from shut vary.

The Illini have an adjusted offensive effectivity of 111.9 (73rd in males’s hoops), however for a way good they’re at enjoying bodily down low, they’re virtually equally as unhealthy with photographs from three. Their two level discipline aim share is 55.2 which is the most effective within the convention and nineteenth nationally. Past the arc, they shoot 30.9% (332nd).

Provided that Illinois is the final Massive 10 crew to not face the frontrunner for the Nationwide Participant of the Yr, scheming round Edey whenever you’re so used to getting what you need in (and round) the paint must be an enormous adjustment to make. If Purdue needs to make use of Edey for his common minutes versus limiting minutes in a recreation with no consequence in convention tourney seeding, Illinois goes to need to play a unique recreation than they’re used to enjoying.

Once more with their peak…they’re the Sixty fourth-best offensive rebounding crew in faculty ball, however they nonetheless haven’t needed to rebound towards a 7’4” Wood Award lock. Don’t anticipate them to get offensive rebounds at their present charge of (practically) one third of their missed photographs.

I see them going to Dainja a ton down low. He’s a lot larger than different Illini energy forwards and facilities his peak or taller, however his footwork and gentle contact on the ball across the rim are, I remorse to tell any Boiler fan who hasn’t seen him play, fairly tasty. His pivots can match up with Edey’s, with out the identical attain clearly. He stands out as the participant that Illinois wants most to have an out-of-his-mind efficiency.

Illinois on Protection

With an adjusted defensive effectivity 95.7 (twenty seventh nationally), the Illini characteristic a slew of starters who, other than the middle place, are considerably taller than the everyday faculty participant at these positions.

They permit an efficient discipline aim share of 46.3 (twenty second), with the one actual small weak point being that they don’t shut out long-range photographs as properly they in all probability ought to for a crew with their size; opponents hit 33.4% of their threes, placing Illinois at 141st within the nation. Their size and physicality assist them out considerably down low, nonetheless. They’re permitting an Eleventh-ranked 44.6% of two level discipline targets. They’ve the instruments to stifle Edey down low with some bodily bigs, I simply hope the apparent fouls are literally known as for as soon as.

With their measurement, it’s no shock they’re wonderful rebounders and shot blockers. The crew in orange permits offensive rebounds on 26.2% of possessions, 82nd in faculty basketball.

Defending Edey received’t lead to numerous blocks, however Illinois really has the best block share within the convention (and tenth nationally) forward of Purdue. They might not be capable to block Edey, however the Illini will block some photographs.

Purdue’s number of comparatively open photographs doesn’t fear me as a lot as the potential of a guard mistiming a drive to the lane and getting swatted or compelled right into a bizarre place on the baseline adopted by a determined move, so I see the Boilermakers sticking extra to perimeter ball motion with forcing the protection to choose their poison in double teaming or permitting a middle to check their luck alone.

The Illini do play bodily protection however don’t create an astounding quantity of turnovers. Their defensive turnover charge is a good 18.8% which is nice sufficient for one hundred and thirtieth within the nation, however whenever you take a look at convention numbers, that drops down to fifteen.6%, nearly proper in the course of the Massive 10 street.

X-Issue – Factors In The Paint

It is a actually intriguing matchup for therefore many causes. There’s the truth that one of many few groups within the convention that outranks Purdue in statistics each offensive and defensive, statistics that one would affiliate with having elite huge males…then add the truth that they’re the final crew within the convention that hasn’t confronted this season’s model of Zach Edey…

Mainly, Illinois stands an opportunity if their rotating bigs can sustain their success in each defending factors within the paint and staying elite in scoring them on the opposite finish. If their first assembly with 2023 Zach Edey proves troublesome early on, it might be an extended afternoon for the Illini.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue – 75

Illinois – 66

79% confidence

Garrett

Purdue – 80

Illinois – 68

I believe this one is especially fascinating on condition that Illinois is so good at the entire close-range issues, each offensively and defensively, that Edey does. They only do it with a number of gamers, albeit shorter, who can nonetheless individually virtually match up with him bodily. Thoughts you that of their double additional time win towards Michigan, the Illini let Hunter Dickinson go for 31 and 16 on 66.6% capturing. Even when they’ll get factors within the paint weaving via Edey and Furst, I don’t see Illinois doing so properly on the opposite finish of the courtroom.