Michigan vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say

Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 22 Illinois plays host to No. 24 Michigan in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Illinois (5-1) edged out Purdue by a single point in overtime last week, moving to 2-1 in Big Ten play and hoping to stay in contention for the conference championship.

Michigan lost its second game of the season two weeks ago on the road against Washington, falling to 2-1 in Big Ten games and now with virtually no margin for error in the playoff race.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models forecast a very close game between these Big Ten rivals.

Michigan is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 59.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of sims.

In total, Michigan came out ahead in 11,920 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Illinois prevailed in the other 8,080 predictions.

And the index projects a very close game on the scoreboard, too.

Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough for the Wolverines to cover the spread against the Illini.

That’s because Michigan is a 3 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -155 and for Illinois at +135 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors are giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt against Michigan, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

53 percent of bets currently forecast the Illini will either win in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.

And the other 47 percent of wagers expect the Wolverines will win the game and cover the spread.

Illinois is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 3.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Michigan a 2 percent chance at the 12-team playoff and a win total prediction of 6.8 games this season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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