Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) at Illinois (6-3, 3-3), Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

BetMGM College Football Odds: Illinois by 3.

Series record: Michigan State leads 27-19-2.

What’s at stake?

Illinois lost to No. 1 Oregon and Minnesota in its last two games, knocking the Illini out of the AP Top 25 poll after seven straight weeks. The Illini face three teams with a combined 13-14 record (Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern) to end the regular season and wins could improve their bowl destination. Michigan State lost to rival Michigan and Indiana the past two games to fall under .500. The Spartans have Purdue and Rutgers to close out the season and have a chance to land a bowl bid to cap Jonathan Smith’s first year as coach.

Key matchup

Illinois’ offense struggled in the back-to-back losses, scoring just 26 points. The Illini are averaging 25.9 points per game. Illinois will face a Michigan State defense that allows 323.6 yards per game, No. 30 in the nation, and has held five opponents under 300 yards.

Players to watch

Illinois: Luke Altmyer has thrown just three interceptions, the lowest total of any starting QB in the Big Ten. But turnovers were an issue for him against Minnesota. He lost two fumbles while being sacked, including one deep in Gophers’ territory with 29 seconds left that ended the Illini’s final scoring opportunity in the 25-17 loss. Coach Bret Bielema said after the game that Altmyer’s ball security would be a point of emphasis in practice.

Michigan State: Freshman receiver Nick Marsh ranks sixth in the Big Ten with 16.8 yards per catch and is seventh in the conference with 69.1 receiving yards per game. He leads the Spartans in receiving yards (553) and is second in receptions (33). His receiving yards are the most by a freshman in Michigan State history (Cody White, 490, 2017).

Facts & figures

LB Dylan Rosiek, Illinois’ leading tackler, suffered a broken leg against Minnesota and is out for the season. … Michigan State’s schedule is the 11th toughest in the nation, according to the NCAA. Opponents have a .649 winning percentage. … The Spartans have won 16 of the last 20 games against Illinois. … Michigan State has two running backs — Kay’ron Lynch-Adams and Nathan Carter — with more than 2,000 career rushing yards. They are one of just 10 RB duos in the country with more than 2,000 career yards on the ground. … The Spartans have a strong kicking game. Jonathan Kim is 17 of 19 on field goals. He’s seventh in the nation in field goals made. Ryan Eckley is the top punter in the Big Ten, averaging 49.2 yards per punt. … Illinois has an outstanding placekicker in David Alano, who is perfect on 24 PATs and 14 of 17 on field goals.

Michigan State will be looking to get back to .500 this weekend when it faces Illinois on the road. Not only would a win give the Spartans an even record with two games to go, but it would bring them one step closer to a bowl game, a bid that requires just two more victories.

Let’a look at three interesting trends heading into the contest:

Michigan State is 4-1 in its last five trips to Illinois

Dating back to 2005, when the Spartans made the trip to Champaign, Illinois, they were successful. Michigan State has gotten the best of Illinois, winning four of their last five matchups. 

In those five games, Michigan State has completely dominated Illinois, outscoring the Fighting Illini by 100 points, 177-77.

Most recently, the Spartans beat the No. 16 Fighting Illini 23-15, in November 2022. That game marks the last ranked win for the Spartans. 

This will be the first time Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith will face off against Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini. 

The Spartans’ recent struggles on the road

The Spartans have had chances for statement victories on the road over the past few years but they are 3-11 on the road since the departure of Kenneth Walker. 

This season, the Spartans did have an impressive win at Maryland, but the Terrapins aren’t known for their home atmosphere, which was mostly Spartans fans back in September. 

Michigan State has been tested on the road this season with losses to Boston College, Oregon and Michigan. The Spartans had their chances to win those games, but ultimately, too many turnovers caught up to Michigan State. 

Michigan State have been underdogs in all four away games this season and against Illinois, the Spartans are three-point underdogs.

The difference in response after bye week

Both teams are coming off of their second bye week of the season. Looking back, both teams responded differently after their first bye week.

The Spartans came out strong off their bye in mid-October, beating the Iowa Hawkeyes,  32-20. 

The Michigan State defense played well, limiting the Hawkeyes to zero first-half points and relatively shutting down running back Kaleb Johnson, the best back in the conference. 

This bright spot for the Spartans is in their lone win since September and the best they’ve looked all season. It is possible the bye week had something to do with the Spartans’ performance against Iowa. 

On the other hand, Illinois stumbled out of the bye week, with a nail-biting 50-49 overtime win over Purdue, the consensus worst team in the Big Ten.

The Fighting Illini defense was shuttered, allowing over 500 yards of offense to a poor Boilermakers’ offense. 

If both teams play to the level they did coming off their first bye week, then Michigan State will have the advantage. 

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